Not a day goes by without news of a cyber attack or cyber espionage operation in some corner of the world. This new battlefield, much less virtual than you think, is still surrounded by unknowns, starting with the evaluation of the power of states.
For the first time, a thorough study helps us see more clearly. For two years, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in London, has studied the means, strategies and educational, scientific and military environments of states to compile a world ranking of the cyberwar.
The institute has divided the main fifteen protagonists of this new field of conflict into three categories, with one surprise: only one falls into the first category, and it is neither China nor Russia, the usual suspects whenever there is talk of a cybernetic operation. The most advanced country is the United States, which according to the study has about 10 years of advantage over China.
If the United States is the only one to fill in all the boxes in the first category, in the second we find China, Russia but also France, the only country in the European Union to appear on the list. The list also includes Israel, the smallest of the countries in this group but whose cyber capabilities are well known, which the government does not hesitate to use especially against Iran.
Rivalry and technological capabilities
Tehran falls into the third category, therefore far from the top. The other countries that are part of it are all located in Asia: Japan, India, North Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.
In this ranking we find the state of the world and the rivalry between the countries that naturally have the technological and military capabilities to dominate this new sector and those that do not have the means but have made a strategic choice. The best example is that of North Korea, poorly digitized and economically lagging behind, but which has developed capabilities in the nuclear and cyber fields that go far beyond its means. But capacity does not necessarily correspond to use. The United States is the most advanced, but not automatically the most active on an offensive level, even though we know it has taken action against Iran or North Korea.
This study shows that when Joe Biden, on the occasion of his recent meeting with Vladimir Putin, ordered the Russian president not to carry out cyber attacks against sensitive US targets under penalty of retaliation, he did so having the means to carry out his threats.
The deterrence is based on the possibility of inflicting damage commensurate to the damage suffered on the opponent. It is what in the nuclear age was called the “balance of terror”, when the Americans and the Soviets each had the possibility of destroying the other.
In the cybernetic universe we have not yet reached that point, but it was important to be able to correctly evaluate the abilities of the actors of this new field in order to hope, one day, to establish the rules of the game as happens with other types of armaments. This IISS study, assigning an advantage to the Americans, certainly contributes to appeasing the ardor of Washington’s opponents.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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