Many expected the arrival of a new wave of infections next autumn. Less predictable was that the wave would already come with the summer. But the increase in cases in other European countries and the numbers in Italy speak for themselves: with more than 86 thousand cases registered on 1 July, against almost 56 thousand on the 24th, there is no doubt that the virus has started to run again.
Leading its run is largely the omicron 5 (Ba.5) sub-variant, which, according to the World Health Organization, has become the prevalent variant on which 43 percent of infections worldwide depend. Compared to the previous variants and the other omicrons, it has spread faster, because it is very contagious. Not only is it more so than the virus native to Wuhan and the delta, but perhaps even more so than measles, considered one of the most contagious diseases known. It has been seen that it has an R0 (reproduction number) that oscillates between 15 and 17, meaning that on average an infected person can infect another 15 or 17. The original variant had an R0 of 2.5 and the delta of 6 or 7 .
Some mutations of omicron 5 make it particularly able to penetrate human cells, mainly affecting the upper airways. It also manages to bypass the immunity developed with previous infections or vaccination. Vaccines remain essential to avoid severe forms of the disease and usually those who are vaccinated have mild symptoms – the most frequent are sore throats, colds, exhaustion, cough and fever – and last less. But having already had covid does not seem to particularly protect against the possibility of reinfection. More recent research suggests that people affected by the original version of omicron can be reinfected by Ba.5 (and Ba.4), especially if not vaccinated. The reinfection rate in Italy currently exceeds 8 percent. Given the high vaccination coverage in our country, the virus seems to cause above all mild forms of the disease, but the high number of infections has in any case increased hospitalizations: according to the Italian Federation of Health and Hospital Companies (Fiaso), hospitalizations as of June 28th per covid they increased by 17.7 percent.
Meanwhile, the government has updated the protocol for containing the virus in the workplace, in force until October 31, 2022: the obligation to wear masks in the private sector has been removed, but their use is still recommended. Employers will be able to detect the temperature of employees, which must not exceed 37.5 ° C, must ensure cleaning, sanitation and air exchange and limit access to common areas. The protocol encourages the use of agile work.
If the trend of this new wave is similar to that of Portugal, where the increase in infections began in early May and the peak was recorded on 2 June, a peak is expected in Italy in the second half of July. It’s hard to predict what will happen in the fall, but the possibility of new waves, probably driven by new variations, is realistic, and it would be better to start preparing.