When a far-right party participates in the formation of a government in Europe – it has already happened several times – a question regularly arises: what will be the consequences for the European Union? Now that the polls on the Italian legislative elections, scheduled for 25 September, anticipate a victory of the right and far right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni, two more questions are added: what will be the consequences for European support for Ukraine? And what will be the impact on the Union’s policy towards Russia?
All the polls indicate Meloni as the next head of the government of one of the founding countries of the European Union, as well as the third economy of the group and protagonist of all its decisions. Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia – a “radical right wing originating from neo-fascism that today presents itself as conservative and traditionalist”, according to the definition of Marc Lazar, an expert in Italian politics Science Po – is allied with another party of far right, Matteo Salvini’s Lega, and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (right).
The war in Ukraine is the most important issue of the moment, in all respects: it is the topic that divides the partners of the right-wing coalition as well as the one that will quickly shape the relationship between Italy and its European partners, partly conditioning the future of ‘Europe.
Putin’s charm
As happens in France, also in Italy a part of the political class has long been fascinated by Vladimir Putin, obtaining encouragement and support from Moscow. Silvio Berlusconi even showed himself in the company of the Russian president in Crimea after the 2014 annexation (condemned by both Europe and Italy), while Matteo Salvini is reminded of the famous photo on Red Square wearing a T-shirt with the effigy of Putin, who at the time the leader of the League would have seen well at the helm of Italy. Today Salvini and Berlusconi criticize the sanctions against Russia.
Meloni has a different position, less “compromised” with Putin and based on a solid Atlanticism faithful to the tradition of his political family. Since the beginning of the war, the leader of the Brothers of Italy has supported Kiev by sharing support for the sending of weapons with the center-left Democratic Party of Enrico Letta, against the advice of her coalition partners.
Today these nuances are analyzed in different European capitals, but also in Moscow. A change of position by Italy, in fact, could compromise European unity on the war in Ukraine, which has remained standing for the last seven months (only Orbán’s Hungary is an exception due to its proximity to Putin).
In a note written for the Terra Nova foundation, Lazar stresses that “some tensions will certainly emerge between the Lega and Forza Italia on the one hand, inclined to seek an end to the conflict and subjected to pressure from Moscow, and Fratelli d’Italia from other, completely aligned with the strategy of the Atlantic Alliance ”.
If on 25 September the Italian voters award the victory to a party heir to fascism, the result will be a strong political electric shock, not only for Italy.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)