[Epoch Times on August 22, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Huang Yun comprehensive report) The 30th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China passed the “Population and Family Planning Law Amendment Draft” on August 20, officially opening a pair A couple can have 3 children. Some population experts said that China has no money to encourage childbirth. The CCP’s measures to encourage childbirth are already being implemented in Japan, with limited effects.
According to a research report by Jefferies Financial Group Inc., the number of births in China this year may drop to the lowest level since at least 1950. Statistics show that although the post-90s generation has gradually become the “main force for childbirth”, most of the “post-90s” young people are unwilling to get married.
Expert: The CCP has no money to encourage childbirth
The Chinese Communist Party’s official Xinhua News Agency reported the contents of the revised Chinese Population and Family Planning Law. The new family planning law stipulates that a couple can have three children. The state adopts financial, taxation, insurance, education, housing, employment and other supporting measures to reduce the burden of family birth, nurturing, and education.
The “Population and Family Planning Law” came into effect on September 1, 2002. This time the “three-child policy” has been written into the law, which is the second revision of the family planning law. When the two-child policy was implemented in 2015, the People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China made the first amendment to this decree.
Yi Fuxian, a population expert and a senior researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that it may be too late to implement the “three-child policy”, because decades of “one-child” policy has completely changed the Chinese concept of fertility. These “supportive measures” proposed by the Chinese Communist Party’s Health Commission are already being implemented by China’s close neighbor, Japan, and their effects are very limited.
He said that although Japan strongly encourages fertility, the fertility rate has only increased from 1.26 in 2005 to 1.45 in 2015, and the fertility rate has dropped to 1.36 in 2019. “Japan’s effect is not good, but China has not yet reached Japan’s level. China (the CCP) has no money, and there is no money to encourage childbirth.”
He said, “China gets old before it gets rich. Aging will cause China’s economic slowdown, and the economic slowdown will cause many local governments to face debt crises.”
Data show that in 2017, Japanese household welfare expenditures accounted for 1.79% of GDP. Japan has launched a series of specific measures to encourage childbirth, including child allowances, which are received from birth to graduation from junior high school; women’s maternity leave allowance, equivalent to 67% of wages; women’s parental leave allowance, calculated at 67% of the average salary in the first 6 months, After that, it is calculated at 50%; social insurance is exempted, that is, during maternity leave and parental leave, enterprises and individuals do not need to pay medical insurance, endowment insurance, unemployment insurance and other policies to encourage childbirth. The Japanese government also proposed to increase the percentage of males receiving parental leave.
Mainland demographer He Yafu also published an article entitled “Encouraging fertility, why Japan, South Korea, and Singapore failed”, analyzing Japan’s massive economic investment that has not effectively increased the fertility rate.
After the CCP’s three-child policy was implemented, the CCP CCTV published the title “The Three-Child Birth Policy Formally Enters the Law!” These supporting policies are also being improved.” The article aroused heated discussion among netizens. Netizens urged, “The supporting service policy should be more detailed, so that the people can see and touch!”, “Don’t talk about the framework, come up with details, reasonable and feasible plans and policies.”
Under the CCP’s decades-long one-child policy, the newborn population has dropped sharply. According to a Bloomberg report on August 19, an analysis of local government data shows that the number of births in some areas of China in the first half of the year may have fallen by 17% compared with the same period in 2020. If this decline is extended to the whole country, it means that there will be 2021. There is a risk that the number of births may fall below 10 million.
On August 21, the Chinese Communist Party’s official CCTV quoted China’s 7th Census as saying that the number of births in China in 2020 is 12 million, and the total fertility rate is 1.3, which is lower than the internationally recognized warning line of 1.5.
According to the official data released by the Communist Party of China, after the implementation of the “comprehensive two-child” policy in 2016, the birth population in China has increased for the fourth consecutive year, and the birth population in China in 2020 has fallen by 18% compared with 2019.
At present, the post-90s generation has gradually become the “main force for childbirth”, and most of the “post-90s” young people are unwilling to get married. According to a set of data recently released by the Civil Affairs Department of the Communist Party of China, there are currently about 170 million “post-90s” in China, and the male to female ratio is about 54:46 (male:female), while the number of “post-90s” registered for marriage does not exceed 10 million. The marriage rate is just over 10%. Among those born in the 90s who are already married, the divorce rate is as high as 35%.
According to calculations by relevant departments, the population of single adults living alone will reach 92 million in 2021.
An online survey conducted by the Chinese Communist Party’s official Xinhua News Agency in May showed that nearly 30,000 people participated. Those who are ready to wait, are already on the agenda, and hesitate to add up to 2,484 people, and those who don’t think about it at all. 28,000 people.
Bi Xin, a sociologist who studies youth issues in mainland China, said that under the current situation, due to the high cost of getting married and having children, coupled with unstable incomes, it is more difficult for young people to start a family. “Some young people don’t want to get married, let alone have children. Now I encourage the birth of 3 and 4 children, but the problem of marriage is not resolved in the first step.”
Current affairs commentator Yokogawa believes that the CCP has never given up its family planning policy. From the “one-child” policy to the “partial two-child” policy, to the “comprehensive two-child” policy, and then to the “three-child” policy, it is the CCP’s control of birth. However, the CCP can enforce the one-child policy by arresting people, ligating people, fines, and demolishing houses. If people don’t have children, it can’t do anything about it. “So the effect of every step of the relaxation is lower than expected.”
Editor in charge: Zhou Yiqian#
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