[Epoch Times November 25, 2021]In 2021, the military color of the Sino-Russian “New Era Strategic Partnership of Cooperation” will become more prominent. For example, the defense ministers of China and Russia have dialogues three times a year. On November 23, the two sides signed the “2021-2025 Military Cooperation Plan”; in November, the Chinese and Russian bombers made their third joint strategic cruise in the airspace surrounding Japan (the first two were in 2019). July and December 2020), crossing each other’s airspace for the first time; in October, the Chinese and Russian navies made the first joint naval cruise in the relevant waters of the Western Pacific; in July, the Russian military participated in the “Western Union-2021” joint Strategic and tactical exercises. In response to this, the CCP blatantly preached that China and Russia “are not an alliance, they are better than an alliance.” Actually, it’s not true. This article talks about two reasons.
First of all, the “progress” achieved by China-Russia joint naval and air cruises is really limited.
The so-called “progress” of Lu Media mainly has two aspects. First, from October 17 to 23, after the “Sea Joint-2021” military exercise (this is the 10th joint exercise since 2012), the Chinese and Russian navies set off from Peter the Great Bay and crossed Japan for the first time. The sea, passing through the Tsugaru Strait, going south through the Western Pacific, and crossing the Osumi Strait into the East China Sea, made Japan feel “unprecedented and peculiar conditions.”
Second, on November 19th, the Chinese and Russian strategic bombers conducted a joint strategic cruise with a flight time of more than 10 hours, especially for the first time the two sides crossed the territorial airspace. In the past, if the CCP bombers wanted to make a difference in the direction of the Sea of Japan, they had to take off from the southeast coast, strictly respect the neutral international waterway, and enter the Sea of Japan from the Tsushima Strait on the border between Japan and South Korea. This route consumes a lot of fuel and has no practical operational significance in wartime (because the Japanese island chain is used along the way, and it passes through several heavily armed military bases in the United States and Japan, it is very easy to be intercepted). This time, the CCP bomber took off from the northeast and directly passed through Russian airspace. The “bright sword” of the Sea of Japan was of practical significance.
Compared with the status quo of Sino-Russian military relations, these are two developments; however, compared with the US-Japan military alliance, they are far from each other.
First, of course, the CCP and Russia do not have a military alliance. Therefore, the bombers crossing the airspace in the joint exercise can be regarded as a kind of military mutual trust and military coordination. However, this is not how “high” and “close” it is. , Is just a gesture. Because there are essential differences between wartime and peacetime, and peacetime may not be equal to wartime. After all, the two sides are not military alliances (do not want to bind each other and assume obligations), and the risks involved are too great.
Second, the combat effectiveness of the joint attack force formed by Russia and China depends to a large extent on whether the two sides can establish a network in actual combat operations to determine the effective attack range, perception range, and point-to-point and entire team-wide intelligence sharing. And this requires common standards, protocols, frequencies, certain joint computer processing technologies, as well as interactive operations, coordinated combat strategies, and so on. In these respects, China and Russia have just started; and Japan-US military integration has been carried out for many years.
In addition, the joint aerial cruise highlights the CCP’s shortcomings. To a certain extent, the CCP is a “fox and tiger”, and it is still difficult to fight against Japan and the United States alone. Russia knows it well and has quite a contempt for it. Take the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic bomber H-6K as an example: it has a range of 6,000 kilometers and a wing load of 160 kg per square meter; among all the improved H-6 bombers, only the H-6N can refuel in the air; and No stealth function. The Russian Tu-95 bomber is a strategic bomber and missile platform with a range of 15,000 kilometers and a load of 606 kg per square meter of wing. Is the gap between the two too big? The CCP believes that “the H-6 bomber cannot be regarded as a true remote strategic bomber.” If the CCP provoked a war, Russia would be willing to join forces with the CCP to fight a war with little chance of victory?
Secondly, China and Russia calculate with each other, and “strategic cooperation” is destined to be “same bed with different dreams”, and eventually “dream awakening time” will come.
The direct goal of this Sino-Russian joint naval and air cruise is to beat Japan and test the US-Japan alliance. The issue of the four northern islands is a hurdle that Japan and Russia cannot get around. Although Japan was a defeated country in World War II, it has refused to give way on the territorial issue and has so far not signed a peace treaty with Russia. The new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has a strong attitude towards Russia, stating that “the Northern Territory issue cannot be left to the next generation.” Russia just wants to show some colors to Japan.
As far as the CCP is concerned, this year’s military threat to Taiwan has risen sharply, and Japan has responded strongly. Japan has clearly stated that “if things happen in Taiwan, things happen in Japan.” It has targeted strengthening defenses in the southwest and increasing military expenditures (defense expenditures listed in the supplementary budget for 2021 will reach 700 billion yen, an increase of 50% compared to three years ago. Record high), hold the largest military exercise in 28 years, strengthen military cooperation between Japan and the United States, and conduct joint military exercises with many countries, etc. All these show that Sino-Japanese relations are undergoing profound changes. The CCP engages in military deterrence and wants Japan to taste something.
It is precisely because of these thoughts that China and Russia have made the aforementioned “progress.” Moreover, as the current Sino-US, Russian-US confrontation continues or even intensifies, it can be predicted that China and Russia will continue to beat Japan, contain the United States, and continue to make some “progress” in naval and air cruises.
However, all these existing and possible “progresses” between China and Russia have a strong performance color and cannot conceal the substantive strategic suspicions and calculations of the two sides.
As far as the CCP is concerned, its global ambitions are expanding. It regards Russia as a little brother (China’s GDP is more than ten times that of Russia), a major supplier of energy, raw materials and defense technology, and a supporter of the United States. If in the future the United States is all taken down from Malaysia, will Russia still be a big problem for the CCP?
Russia, as a former communist country, has been dealing with the CCP for hundreds of years. It has a good understanding of the CCP’s ambitions, coupled with the imbalance of power between China and Russia, and historically seized 1.5 million square kilometers of China’s territory. Therefore, Russia is deeply wary of the CCP and responds accordingly. Made the layout (see the author “Two faces of Sino-Russian relationsTo put it simply, Russia’s strategic intention is to support and encourage the CCP to challenge the United States. On the one hand, it reduces the pressure on the U.S. on Russia, and on the other hand, it consumes the strength of the CCP and achieves the best effect of both China and the United States. If China and the United States are true In the beginning of the war, Russia will not fight side by side with the CCP, and perform another trick in the Korean War (pushing the CCP into North Korea to fight, but actually failing to fulfill its promise of sending an air force to the war).
Of course, the CCP also understands Russia. Therefore, in the era of Deng Xiaoping, the normalization of Sino-Soviet relations and the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia, the CCP’s strategy was to “only shake hands but not embrace.” The mutual understanding and mutual suspicion between China and Russia have resulted in the fact that today China and Russia are only a “strategic partnership of coordination” (even if a “new era” is added in 2019) rather than an “alliance.”
However, today, the CCP is running at the end and has lost the flexibility of Deng Xiaoping’s international strategy. Its mind and body have become rigid. It is also possible that the Chinese-Russian “strategic cooperation” will be acted upon wishful thinking. A handful.
The Epoch Times
Editor in charge: Gao Yi#
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