[Epoch Times August 07, 2021]On June 30, the “Washington Post” quoted a US think tank saying that a large number of densely distributed bases were discovered in Yumen, Gansu Province, presumably nuclear weapons launch facilities. Less than a month later, on July 26, the American Federation of Scientists (AFS) issued a report saying: Satellite images found that the CCP is building 110 new silos near Hami in eastern Xinjiang, which is larger than the scale of Yumen. Construction began in March this year; “The construction of the silos in Yumen and Hami is the most significant expansion of China’s (CCP) nuclear arsenal in history.”
Although, the Chinese Communist Party’s official media argued that this is actually a wind power plant. But commentators claim that the inference that nuclear weapons silos cannot be completely ruled out: First, Yumen is subordinate to Jiuquan City, Gansu Province, and a few hours’ drive nearby is the CCP’s main satellite launch site “Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center,” which is part of the military strategy. Support the troops; it makes sense to set up extensive missile-launching facilities near the satellite base. Second, the subordinates of the weapon facilities will inevitably be hidden. Although the photo says “Gansu Yumen Wind Power Plant”, there are still some weapon systems or intercontinental missiles inside or underground. Third, although the planning of excessively dense silos is unreasonable (the denser the silos, the easier it is to be wiped out by the first blow), but as far as strategy is concerned, this is a “deception” technique. Create a deterrence that already has a large number of nuclear warheads.
In fact, US officials take this information very seriously. On July 30, the US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) forwarded relevant reports and said: “This is the second time the public has discovered in two months the growing threats the world is facing and the mysteries surrounding it. The veil.” Strategic Command Commander Charles Richard (Charles Richard) warned at a congressional hearing in April that the CCP’s nuclear capabilities have been expanded at an unprecedented rate, including the expanding intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) arsenal and new With mobile missile launchers, they can easily hide from satellites.
On July 8, the U.S. Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Robert Wood, stated that the CCP is considering the development of advanced “sea and air autonomous nuclear weapons systems” (such as underwater drones and nuclear-powered systems). Missiles), which may undermine “global strategic stability.”
All this confirms that on the eve of Pompeo’s retirement as Secretary of State (January 14), the article “China’s Crazy for Nuclear Power Development” co-written with the special envoy for arms control issues (Marshall Billingslea) said: Beijing is unconstrained The development of nuclear weapons is a core part of the CCP’s threat.
The CCP’s first extremely dangerous nuclear weapons policy was to grow its nuclear arsenal at the fastest rate in the world.
Indeed, the world’s fastest growing nuclear arsenal (the Pentagon announced for the first time last year that it is estimated that the CCP has more than 200 nuclear warheads, and this number has doubled in the past 10 years). This is the CCP’s first extremely dangerous nuclear weapons policy. Moreover, the US estimates that the CCP’s nuclear arsenal will at least double in the next 10 years.
Relatively speaking, in the decades since the end of the Cold War, the whole world has been shrinking its nuclear arsenals. The United States and Russia signed the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” in 2010 and entered into force the following year (this year the two countries have decided to extend it for 5 years). According to the February 2018 edition of the US Department of Defense’s Nuclear Posture Assessment, the US’s nuclear arsenal has been reduced by 85% from its peak during the Cold War, and no new nuclear forces have been deployed for more than two decades. The CCP is engaged in an asymmetric arms race, and it has lasted for two decades.
The CCP’s second extremely dangerous nuclear weapons policy is that it is opaque and refuses to participate in the US-Russia nuclear arms control negotiations.
Among the five nuclear powers (also five permanent members of the UN Security Council), the United States publicly released the “Nuclear Posture Assessment” and exchanged data with Russia on nuclear issues every six months; France and the United Kingdom both regularly issued statements detailing their weapons The number and types of nuclear weapons in the library; only the CCP refuses to use these procedures and uses “opacity” as its “preferred strategy.”
Why does the CCP use “opacity” as its “preferred strategy”? It claims that this is a means for weak countries to deter powerful countries (the CCP deliberately “shows weakness” so that the U.S. cannot easily judge the CCP’s nuclear arsenal and its trend, making it difficult to effectively respond); but its essence is “fraud”, both deprivation The people’s right to know (which is the basis of democratic politics) has been lost, and the United States has been confused by its “showing weakness,” thereby secretly expanding its nuclear arsenal.
As for its refusal to participate in the US-Russian nuclear arms control negotiations, the CCP’s excuse is that its nuclear power is not at the same level as the US and Russia, which is far from the same level. Of course, there is a large number gap between the CCP’s nuclear weapons and the United States and Russia; however, the CCP has a quantitative advantage in the field of land-based medium- and medium-range missiles (these missiles may also carry nuclear warheads), and the United States and Russia are also taboo about this (this is also the United States’ withdrawal Therefore, from the perspective of arms control, it is entirely possible to combine these two types of weapons in a unified manner. In other words, it is possible to set a general limit for the launchers of several weapons such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), strategic bombers, and land-based medium- and medium-range missiles.
From a technical perspective, as the world’s third largest nuclear power and a regime that rapidly expands its nuclear arsenal, the CCP can fully participate in the nuclear arms control negotiations between the United States and Russia. But the CCP does not participate in the life and death, its purpose is to develop nuclear weapons without restriction. And what is the purpose of developing nuclear weapons without restriction? Think carefully.
The third extremely dangerous nuclear policy of the CCP is “Entanglement”.
General knowledge in the international military community: Conventional weapons are combat weapons, ready to be used on the battlefield at any time; nuclear weapons are strategic deterrent weapons, the purpose is to deter the other side from using nuclear weapons, so that oneself does not need to use nuclear weapons. The fundamental difference between actual combat and deterrence means that there needs to be a sufficiently clear boundary between conventional weapons and nuclear weapons.
The United States has always attached importance to maintaining the relative boundary between these two weapons. During the Bush administration, the US military considered replacing some of the nuclear warheads of ballistic missiles on strategic nuclear submarines with conventional warheads, so that a strategic nuclear submarine carrying both nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles can perform more and more flexible military tasks. . However, doing so will cause misjudgment by opponents: if the United States launches ballistic missiles with conventional warheads to Russia, Russia’s early warning system may not be able to determine whether it is carrying a nuclear warhead; in this case, if Russia is worried that the United States launched a preemptive strike If the United States immediately launched a nuclear counterattack against the United States due to Russia’s misjudgment, the United States would suffer a nuclear strike for no reason, and even trigger a large-scale nuclear war. In order to avoid this misjudgment leading to the risk of unexpected war escalation, the United States finally decided to abandon the idea of installing conventional warheads on some of the missiles of its strategic nuclear submarines.
However, some of the new missiles developed and deployed by the CCP in recent years, such as the Dongfeng-26, have the characteristics of “both nuclear and standing” according to official media, and conventional or nuclear warheads can be installed on the same missile body as needed. This is a big taboo.
At the same time, the CCP’s Rocket Force’s firepower and force composition are also very problematic: the firepower composition is a combination of nuclear strikes and conventional firepower means, and the force composition is a combination of nuclear missile launch brigade and conventional missile launch brigade; passed; The same type or even the same chain of command is the same C4ISR (command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) system. The Rocket Army headquarters and a certain base command command each nuclear missile launch brigade and conventional missile launch brigade. . This has huge hidden dangers, causing misjudgments and increasing the risk of unintentional nuclear escalation.
Suppose, when an enemy country launches an attack on a certain Rocket Army base, based on the mechanism of mixing the nuclear and conventional launch brigades of the Rocket Army base, the enemy’s attack will inevitably endanger the survival of the nuclear missile launch brigade and the operation of the base command’s automated command system. It may trigger the CCP’s military’s nuclear strike decision-making mechanism. A nuclear war may break out.
Concluding remarks
The CCP’s nuclear weapons policy is a huge system. This article only briefly reviews three of the most dangerous ones. In addition to the above three items, the outside world is also highly concerned about whether the CCP has adopted or will adopt a “Launch on Warning” policy. Due to the lack of CCP information, this article is left out.
Although the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) entered into force on January 22 this year, and the treaty is the first international treaty that characterizes nuclear weapons as inhumane and illegal; however, the CCP’s nuclear weapons policy , Has already constituted the greatest threat to the “Nuclear Nuclear Weapons Treaty” and world peace.
In fact, the CCP’s nuclear weapons policy is very opaque. Even the officers and soldiers of the CCP’s military’s nuclear forces do not fully understand (only limited to mastering the operating rules of their respective departments), and probably only exist in the small group at the highest level of the CCP’s military. Among people. Obviously, due to the nature of the CCP regime, the danger cannot be eliminated without disintegrating the CCP.
Editor in charge: Gao Yi #
.