We need a truce between China and the United States to save the planet – Minxin Pei

Despite their rivalry, the US and China have recently been sending the right signals about potential cooperation in the fight against the climate crisis. The joint statement released after the April meeting between John Kerry, the US special envoy for climate, and his Chinese colleague Xie Zhenhua indicates that perhaps the two governments seek to collaborate on climate policies to prevent their relations becoming openly hostile. It’s easy to see why Washington and Beijing are behaving responsibly right now: they see the climate crisis as a threat to their existence. US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping know that being uncompromising on this issue could cost them dearly in the face of international public opinion.

During the Cold War, the ideological battle between communism and capitalism divided the world and cemented alliances. But ideology alone is unlikely to allow the US and China to make many friends over the next decade. The Communist Party of China no longer has an ideology to flaunt, and political polarization and Trumpism have tainted the US image.

Rather, the ability to lead the fight against climate change, which endangers the survival of humanity, will determine international alliances. Turning climate commitments into concrete action will be a test case for both countries. After the recent climate meeting between Biden and other world leaders, for example, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hinted that China would cooperate with the United States as long as Washington stops interfering “with Beijing’s internal affairs. “.

While China considers Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and, more significantly, Taiwan to be “internal matters,” Kerry has made it clear that the US will make no concessions on this in exchange for Chinese climate cooperation. If Beijing and Washington do not soften their positions, a further increase in tensions on such sensitive issues could jeopardize bilateral initiatives against the climate crisis.

It is unclear what cooperation between the United States and China can guarantee. The brief joint release in April offers few details, for obvious reasons. Given the lack of trust, neither country wants to make binding commitments. Consequently, bilateral climate cooperation will be precarious and modest at best.

This precariousness stems from the overall instability of relations between China and the United States, and an increase in tensions would inevitably cause collateral damage to initiatives against global warming. Mutual suspicion and hostility will also prevent both sides from taking important steps. We must therefore expect a slow and gradual process.

Washington and Beijing, rather than actively collaborating, may simply refrain from doing a few things for now. In this sense, the first imperative is to avoid tying climate cooperation to the most conflicting aspects of their relations, such as human rights, trade and security. This will require more effort from China than from the United States, as Beijing officials seem convinced that China’s climate engagement can be used as a negotiating weapon with the West on sensitive issues such as trade and human rights. The bipartisan strength of anti-Chinese sentiment in the United States leaves Biden little room for maneuver, and Chinese intransigence could severely damage Xi Jinping’s credibility as a global leader in the fight against climate change.

In the course of the upcoming multilateral climate negotiations, both countries will have to give up the temptation to attack each other. On the reduction of emissions and contributions to financing for the energy transition in developing economies, for example, they should base their possible criticisms on sound moral, economic and scientific criteria.

It may seem unrealistic to talk about collaboration between China and the United States on the issue of clean energy at a time when the two countries are waging war in the field of technology. Yet Beijing and Washington may find a way to isolate the green tech arena from their competition.

The world needs Washington and Beijing to really work together to fight climate change, but we shouldn’t be under any illusions. The best we can expect is that the two superpowers, as they scramble for geopolitical gains, manage to control themselves enough not to endanger humanity’s survival.

(Translation by Federico Ferrone)