A mild disturbance, associated with a cyclone on the Baltic Sea, will in fact cause a rapid deterioration in the northern regions and disturb the diffuse sun of the last few days.
In the Center-South, the maximum temperatures will continue to exceed 20 ° C almost everywhere, with peaks of 25-27 ° C on the Major Islands until the Summer of San Martino.
We must remember that maximum temperatures of 20 ° C, at the end of the first decade of November, already represent an anomalous value such as to justify the term Novembrata: in fact, in this period of the year it usually rains a lot in Italy and the maximums oscillate around 15 ° C. This year the sun and the heat are still protagonists with values up to 6-7 ° C above the average.
Lorenzo tedic, meteorologist of the site www.iLMeteo.it, does not hide some difficulties in elaborating the forecasts for the next weekend: the troposphere presents quite ‘convoluted’ movements with cyclones whose trajectory is difficult to predict in advance. At the moment, what seems most probable is a worsening on Saturday 12 November in the South and on the Adriatic side, up to Emilia Romagna, as happened last Saturday but with less intensity; Sunday could be very variable everywhere but all in all sunny.
We talked about the weekend, let’s rewind the tape and see the forecasts for the next few hours in detail: today in the North the weather will become more gray and dull with scattered rains until tomorrow morning, then conditions are expected to improve. In the Center some rain showers will bathe Versilia and the Apuan Alps, while from Grosseto downwards the weather will be more sunny and with the anomalous heat of Novembrata.
Thursday will see the shifting of the rains towards the central regions, in particular towards Tuscany and the Marches with scattered clouds as far as Naples; under Campania the sun will still be the protagonist.
The famous 11 November, the day on which the Summer of San Martino occurs, that is, that autumn period in which statistically there are climatic conditions of good weather and relative warmth, this year could instead mark the end of Novembrata also in the South: as we have already said, the weather of the weekend, difficult to predict, could make us savor the first hints of a new season, Autumn, with the subsequent arrival of widespread and important rains from mid-month: from 15 November the Atlantic Door could open with a series of perturbations from the West and important rains against drought. But obviously this projection is totally to be confirmed.
IN THE DETAIL
Wednesday 9. In the north: decreasing pressure, worsening with gradually more moderate rainfall. Middle: it gets a bit worse in Upper Tuscany, sunny and mild elsewhere. South: sunshine and mild climate.
Thursday 10. In the north: scattered rains then improves. In the center: scattered rains between Tuscany and Marche. South: sunshine and mild climate.
Friday 11. In the north: sunny. Center: scattered clouds. In the south: sun and mild climate then it gets worse.
Trend. Probable rains on Saturday in the South and on the Adriatic side, on Sunday with rains in the North.