- Barbara Plett-Usher
- BBC correspondent in the US State Department
image source,Getty Images
Senior Democrat Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has given US President Biden a “very headache” when dealing with relations with China.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has caused a headache for U.S. President Joe Biden in his handling of relations with China, America’s main global rival. Analysts warn that there are many risks ahead.
Sino-US relations are based on US strategic ambiguity over Taiwan.
Beijing claims Taiwan is part of China, Taiwan says it is independent, and the United States says Taiwan is not independent, but treats it as an ally, and none of the three parties have taken active action on their claims. Maintaining this fragile balance seems to be the most Not a bad choice.
But Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has exposed the inconsistencies behind the arrangement, a delicate balance that has become tense.
The crisis complicates the situation for Biden, who is angered by China’s outrage over Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the most senior U.S. official in 25 years.
Moreover, the United States is focusing on the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the crisis increases the risk of the United States being drawn into a conflict with another great power.
It doesn’t help that discord within the U.S. government makes Taiwan appear to be part of a turf war in Washington.
Pelosi, a Democrat and longtime China hawk, was cheered by powerful Republican lawmakers in Congress who agreed that the U.S. congressional visit to Taiwan showed invaluable unity at a time when China’s threat to Taiwan is growing .
China’s largest military exercise around Taiwan begins
Her fellow Democrats in the White House argue that Congress is independent of the executive branch and therefore has no right to prevent her from going to Taiwan.
Privately, Biden sent aides to warn her that this is a politically sensitive time for China’s leadership, and the risks behind it. Pelosi has been told that Xi will face a major party congress in November, along with considerable domestic pressure, not to appear weak.
When Pelosi decided to leave, the U.S. government had to defend the move and downplay its importance, emphasizing that it did not represent a change in the U.S. “One China” policy.
But the U.S. government acknowledges that the Chinese government will react sharply and may continue to roll out countermeasures for weeks or even months.
As China surrounds Taiwan with live-fire military exercises, Washington’s view remains that Xi aims to “anchor” its actions to avoid an open war, something neither side wants.
But it was an explosive event in the fragile relationship between the two sides.
“The United States and China have neither the political space nor the real relationship and mechanisms to prevent such an event from turning into a full-blown crisis,” said Danny Russel. He was a diplomat in the Asia-Pacific region and now works at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
He believes that Pelosi’s visit will lock China’s ideas into the toughest parts and really eliminate those that advocate patience and caution.
The two global powers are already dysfunctional in tackling a range of other issues, which will further deepen the precarious situation.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan: What do people in mainland China and Taiwan think?
For the U.S., China’s diplomatic support for Russia is near the top of the list of issues, but the ongoing trade war is not far behind, and again the need to jointly tackle climate change and North Korea’s nuclear risk.
When President Biden took office, Xi Jinping became more authoritarian at home and tougher externally. The US has responded by defining Beijing as a strategic competitor and America’s greatest long-term challenge. China does not like the framework, and the two sides have not made progress in seeking cooperation as much as possible.
The White House now says its goal is to build “guardrails” to manage differences, with a direct consensus between the two leaders.
But Taiwan has raised “the question of credibility,” said Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at Germany’s Marshall Fund. “I do think that Xi Jinping will feel that he cannot believe what Biden is saying.”
In this regard, Pelosi’s visit is just the tip of the iceberg. The move follows a string of other moves that have raised suspicions in China that the United States is normalizing relations with Taiwan, not least Mr Biden’s suggestion that his defense commitments to the island are stronger than U.S. policy has determined.
What’s needed, says Gladys, is a “focused, quiet, candid conversation” that moves away from the standard ambiguous playbook and clearly points out red lines.
Perhaps this will become possible if a face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the two countries can be successfully arranged during the G20 summit in November. This may help stabilize relations between the two countries, but is unlikely to go beyond crisis management.
