Home » What does it mean that China’s imports to Australia by leaps and bounds in the first three quarters of this year? -ABC News

What does it mean that China’s imports to Australia by leaps and bounds in the first three quarters of this year? -ABC News

by admin

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, Australia’s exports to China from January to September this year increased by 45.5% year-on-year. This growth has become the focus of media attention under the premise of tensions in the diplomatic and trade relations between Australia and China.

According to Chinese customs data browsed by ABC Chinese, from January to September this year, Australia’s exports to China amounted to US$127.58 billion (A$174 billion).

The Australian Financial Review reported that China’s imports of commodities from Australia offset the losses caused by the trade war in wine, beef, barley, seafood, coal and other products.

In May last year, China began to restrict Australia’s export trade to China. Everything from lobster, wine to coal was affected. Australia lost about 20 billion Australian dollars in exports each year.

However, economists told ABC Chinese that an increase in trade volume does not mean an increase in export volume. Just looking at the numbers will give people an unrealistically optimistic view and may cause misjudgments.

Professor Heling Shi from the School of Business of Monash University said that Australia’s exports to China priced in U.S. dollars will inevitably have a very high value, but this value is likely to obscure some facts, such as the iron in 2021. The export volume of ore has not grown much.

China began restricting Australia’s imports of goods last year, but this year’s public data show that Australia’s exports to China have not decreased but increased.(ABC News: GFX/Jarrod Fankhauser)

Professor Shi said that in the first nine months of this year, the increase in Australian exports to China was mainly reflected in the increase in iron ore prices-the highest price reached US$220 a ton on July 16, and iron ore accounted for This accounted for more than 50% of Australia’s exports to China.

Australia’s mineral resources trade volume with China has also increased by leaps and bounds. According to information published by the mining website Australian Mining, China’s imports of Australian iron ore reached 14.89 billion Australian dollars in June this year alone, an increase of 1 billion Australian dollars over the same period last year.

However, as China, the world‘s second largest economy, has been struggling to reduce steel production, the demand for iron ore is gradually declining.

See also  5000 women pa' the street, law of President Petro

Iron ore affects export trade to China

The deteriorating diplomatic relationship between China and Australia is an important downside risk for the Australian dollar.
The price of iron ore once rose in July, but fell by about 40% in August, falling below US$130 per ton.(Reuters: David Gray)

After checking the import and export data of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Dr. Li Wei, a lecturer at the Business School of the University of Sydney, found that Australia’s exports to China from January to August this year increased by 35% over the same period last year.

After analyzing various export commodities, she found that Australia’s total export of goods from January to August 2021 was 26%. The main growth product was iron ore. For other major export products, coal mines remained unchanged, but natural gas dropped by 4%.

“During the 2008 financial crisis, China’s 3 trillion investment projects stimulated the export of iron ore. During this epidemic, iron ore also reappeared in history at the same time. It also stimulated the increase in Australian exports,” Li Wei Said the doctor.

However, Dr. Li Wei believes that since China’s real estate industry is experiencing problems such as Evergrande’s debt default, it is still unknown whether the Chinese real estate industry will enter a dormant period in the next period of time.

“From the perspective of recent months, the real estate company Evergrande has a crisis situation. Many people worry that the Evergrande crisis may lead to a deterioration in the operating environment of Chinese real estate companies,” said Dr. Li Wei.

“The predicament of China’s real estate industry is also spreading to a certain extent. In August, real estate sales fell by nearly 20% year-on-year, and the newly started area has declined this year. Therefore, some people worry that the pressure of the real estate market will lead to a decline in steel demand, and it will also Caused iron ore prices to fall.”

Part of Australian coal unloaded at Chinese ports

The excavator is loading coal onto the truck
Australia’s coal has been welcomed by China because of its high quality, but coal exports have been stranded for nearly a year due to the trade war between the two countries.(ABC News: Tom Edwards)

According to an analysis data obtained by ABC Chinese, China, which is caught in the power crisis, has allowed Australian coal stranded in Chinese ports to unload.

Previously, Abhinav Gupta, an analyst at the Perth branch of the shipbroking company Braemar ACM Shipbroking, confirmed to ABC that 420,000 tons of Australian coal will be unloaded in July and August this year, and another 55,000 tons will be The coal loaded on ships in May this year was cleared in July, but he could not confirm the purpose of the coal.

See also  Reactions to messages on WhatsApp: how to use other emojis besides the 6 by default

After starting the coal ban against Australia, China turned to Indonesia and Russia to find coal producers, but due to coal shortages in India and Europe this year, the market is very tight.

Professor Shi Heling said that many power generation facilities in China are designed in accordance with the standards for burning Australian coal. Once the import of coal from Australia is stopped and coal is imported from Indonesia and Mongolia, the coal standard will inevitably be changed. He believes that in an absolute sense, China is not short of coal.

“Therefore, China, as a last resort, allows the unloading of Australian imported coal that was originally stranded outside the port of Qinhuangdao to relieve its urgent need.”

Professor Shi Heling said that another reason is related to China’s recent desire to join the “Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (CPTPP).

He explained that under the circumstance that existing members can veto with one vote, if Australia voted against it, China’s hopes of becoming a member state would be shattered. Therefore, under both economic and political pressures, Australian coal stranded in Chinese ports began to unload.

The coal exported from Australia to China is steam coal, which is used for power generation. In November last year, dozens of bulk carriers carrying Australian coal were trapped in coastal areas of China, drifting at sea and unable to enter the port for unloading.

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Zhao Lijian did not clearly explain the reasons, but hinted that the stranded cargo ships carrying Australian coal should be attributed to coal quality problems. There are many unqualified cases”.

To what extent can Australia-China economic and trade relations be restored?

Former PM Tony Abbott gestures while speaking at an event with Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen
Former Australian Prime Minister Abbott recently made comments in Taiwan, which once again aroused the diplomatic confrontation between Beijing and Canberra.(AP: Pool photo)

After the former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott visited Taiwan, the Chinese state media “China Daily” published a commentary, saying that Abbott’s actions further damaged Australia-China relations, which were already at a trough, and warned that “the worst thing is still Not here”, suggesting that the tension between Beijing and Canberra may intensify.

See also  The 10th Anniversary of the Coordinated Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei丨One Card for Medical Treatment in Three Places_China.com

Professor Shi Heling believes that the current economic and trade relations between Australia and China are showing signs of relaxation, but the specific momentum depends on many other factors.

“[阿博特的讲话]In fact, it has caused a relatively large negative impact in China. Once it is linked to geopolitics and regional security, Australia’s economic and trade development prospects are difficult to predict,” Professor Shi Heling said. These factors make it difficult to judge the future development direction of Australia-China relations.

As for Australia’s federal election next year, Dr. Li Wei believes that it will not have much impact on Australia-China relations.

“it seems that[联邦朝野]There is a corresponding consensus between the two parties, and there will be no one party coming to power, and then there will be a big change between policies,” said Dr. Li Wei.

“Now, what I have observed is that no matter which political party comes to power or steps down, there will still be this sensitivity to China’s relations. Because the sensitivity of Australia-China relations is closely connected with international geopolitics. “

.

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Privacy & Cookies Policy