image source,Reuters
Xi Jinping said for the first time that the PLA should “focus all its energy on fighting”, sparking speculation about the risk of a war in the Taiwan Strait in the next few years.
Xi Jinping, who won his third term at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, inspected the Joint Operations Command Center of the Central Military Commission (joint command) on November 8 as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Joint Commander-in-Chief of the Military Commission.
Wearing a new camouflage uniform, he delivered a speech after listening to the report, saying that China’s security situation has become more unstable and uncertain, and he must “focus all our energy on fighting wars, focus all our work on fighting wars, speed up the improvement of our ability to win, and resolutely defend national sovereignty, security, development interests”.
According to state media reports, Xi Jinping also asked the Joint Command Center of the Military Commission to “comprehensively strengthen military training and preparations”.
Five years ago, Xi Jinping inspected the Joint Reference Center after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017. At that time, he said that “the army must prepare for war” and required the military commission to understand war, be good at strategy, be able to command, and pay attention to the work of preparing for war.
Political proclamation over military?
image source,Reuters
Some Taiwanese scholars believe that Xi Jinping’s latest statement is just a new wording, “no more offensive words than before”.
Taiwan is concerned about whether Xi Jinping’s remarks mean that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is about to heat up. Su Ziyun, director of the National Defense Strategy and Information Institute of the Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, told the BBC Chinese that the CCP’s political culture focuses on mastering the barrel of a gun and setting enemies. The statement was just changed to new words, “no more offensive words than before”.
He believes that the statement is to confirm the loyalty of the People’s Liberation Army, it is a political action rather than a military action, and Taiwan will not become more dangerous because of this. “Xi Jinping has just taken full power, and it is in his best interest not to start a war. You can say that there are issues with the United States and Taiwan at any time. Everyone should support me. For him, it is the highest wisdom to keep an enemy and use it to unite the inside. In the worst case, there is an uncontrollable turmoil within him, and he will take the risk.”
Song Wendi, a lecturer at the Asia-Pacific College of the Australian National University, also told BBC Chinese that Xi Jinping’s speech was more about guiding domestic public opinion and preventing the “internationalization of the Taiwan issue”. “Beijing is trying to make the conflict in the Taiwan Strait less urgent, not more urgent. It’s laying the groundwork for strategic patience, a rhetorical expression we’ve seen so often in recent major speeches.”
Lev Nachman, an American scholar, also believes that Xi Jinping’s propaganda is aimed more at home than abroad, “just a rhetoric” and not a signal of any actual military action. He told BBC Chinese: “China’s threat to Taiwan has already escalated. Military threats are more terrifying than rhetorical threats. Now the People’s Liberation Army briefly crosses the central line of the Taiwan Strait every day and then goes back. As long as this level is maintained, I will not be too worried.”
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However, some scholars hold the opposite opinion. Weng Lvzhong, an associate professor of the Department of Political Science at Sam Houston State University in Texas, told BBC Chinese that this time Xi Jinping’s publicity is more meaningful, “because he has taken full power, the proportion of his domestic propaganda will be higher. It’s a little lower, but external performance is more important.”
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He stressed that red flags should not be dismissed as “propaganda”. “We have interpreted Xi Jinping for a long time as a pretense, but the CCP has always crossed the river by feeling the stones. If today’s strength is effective, he will continue to be strong. If it is suppressed in reverse, he will soften a little. Back and forth. In between, if you always think it’s fake, maybe he’s moved a lot forward.”
Weng Lvzhong said that the CCP is using the Taiwan issue to target the United States. “China only sees the United States in its eyes, and Taiwan has never been considered by China’s major powers’ diplomacy. It is just a sub-issue.” “China’s major-country diplomacy is constrained by the United States, and it cannot rush out of Asia. Xi Jinping must find a point to let his energy out, otherwise he will not be able to govern at home. Of course Xi Jinping hopes that the domestic economy and technology can develop, but he is stuck by the United States, so He feels that the key to extending his term to the third and fourth term is whether he can become the savior of the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’, and if he wins Taiwan, all other issues will be irrelevant.”
He said that Xi Jinping’s strong performance when he visited the Joint Index Center this time was to increase the bargaining chip with the United States. “China has been dissatisfied for a long time, and believes that the United States on the surface (only recognizes) one China, has actually been helping Taiwan to move towards sovereign independence, so Xi Jinping’s attitude is to tell the United States, whether your administrative units, members of Congress or not The Chinese side is dissatisfied with the exchange of visits with high-level Taiwanese, and you need to make some adjustments in the United States, otherwise it will be meaningless to talk again.”
Timetable for armed attack on Taiwan?
Song Wendi believes that Xi Jinping is very disturbed by the international situation of “containment of China”, especially the Russian-Ukrainian war and the internationalization of the Taiwan issue, both of which may cause China to fall into a war that it may not currently want, but China feels that it is not interested in it. War has less and less control. “The Ukraine war has brought ideological battles back into the spotlight of international competition and has significantly weakened China’s geopolitical safety net, namely China’s main partner Russia, which feels more vulnerable than ever to direct pressure from the United States.”
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He pointed out that Xi’s speech showed his determination to resist external provocations, but did not propose an intention, plan or timetable for the opening of the war, “still retaining strategic ambiguity”.
Taiwan military expert Su Ziyun emphasized that the so-called timetable for the war between the two sides of the strait is dynamic. It was previously reported that the outer islands of Taiwan might be attacked in 2020 and 2021. Later, it was said to be 2027, and now it is said to be 2023. “It mainly depends on the offensive capability. And defense capabilities … Taiwan’s only option is to strengthen defense capabilities.”
Weng Lvzhong assessed that the most dangerous time in the Taiwan Strait may be from March to November 2024, that is, after the presidential election in Taiwan and before the election in the United States. “Assuming that the DPP is successfully elected in 2024, the signal to China is that Taiwan’s overall public opinion is to continue the pro-US and anti-China line, and China will rethink when the decisive battle will take place, and before the 2024 US presidential election, although it will not fully enter the There is a window period, but that time may be very chaotic, and China can take advantage of this opportunity. And if the United States is elected by the stronger Republican Party, Xi Jinping will hope to get Taiwan first, and then come to confront the United States hard.”
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He believes that under the threat of war, the United States and the whole world feel that Taiwan is very dangerous. Only Taiwan cannot feel it. “It’s like living in a bubble.” Do not know at all. “Taiwan’s news will only say that the United States is fighting against China to protect Taiwan, but it will not say how nervous the United States is now. The government knows it but doesn’t say it, because it says that the people will be nervous and will lose votes. But the first step in defending Taiwan is to Be honest, let everyone see the danger and feel it, and then reflect on the relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan.”