image source,EPA
Every missile launch by North Korea attracts the attention of South Korean media.
Around the new year of 2022, China is busy holding the Beijing Winter Olympics. North Korea’s repeated missile tests appear to have created an ominous atmosphere for the Olympics, a symbol of international peace and cooperation.
North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into waters off the coast of Japan this week, the latest in an unusual string of recent tests. It was North Korea’s fourth missile launch in two weeks. This has made South Korea and Japan nervously concerned.
The South Korean military said the missiles were fired from an airfield near Pyongyang early Monday (January 17), according to reports. Japan also confirmed the missile launch.
The United Nations currently bans North Korea from testing ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, and has imposed strict sanctions. But the country regularly violates the ban, and leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly vowed to strengthen the country’s defenses.
North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile from a train carriage on Friday, days after it conducted two tests of what it claimed were hypersonic missiles, which were harder to detect.
Why has North Korea frequently tested missiles recently?
The frequency and timing of North Korea’s January missile tests were unusual.
In the past, North Korea often launched missiles when there were major political activities in the country, or declared dissatisfaction with joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea.
According to this, Ankit Panda, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the BBC that North Korea usually activates its arsenal to develop missile capabilities and maintain combat readiness, and the latest missile test seems to confirm this.
But at the same time, “Kim Jong-un also has domestic considerations: in times of economic hardship, these launches allow him to communicate that defense priorities will not be ignored by him,” Panda added.
Currently, North Korea has been facing food shortages and economic turmoil. To prevent the entry of the new coronavirus, North Korea has self-blocked its borders, cutting off trade with China, North Korea’s main economic and political ally, despite reports that trade could resume soon.
Kim Jong-un recently acknowledged that North Korea is facing a “great life-and-death struggle” while also vowing to build up its military, including developing hypersonic missiles.
The United States wants North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, but negotiations have stalled since President Joe Biden took office.
The Biden administration last week imposed its first sanctions on North Korea in response to some missile tests earlier this month.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korea at Ewha Womans University in South Korea, analyzed to the BBC that Monday’s launch may have been a “stronger response” to U.S. sanctions, suggesting that “North Korea will not be defeated by the United States“.
image source,Reuters
In the past, North Korea has often launched missiles during major political events at home, or as a declaration of dissatisfaction over joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises.
Are frequent test launches related to China?
The missile test came weeks before the Beijing Winter Olympics, which will open on February 4. The Winter Olympics are a very prestigious and politically sensitive event for China.
In early January 2022, North Korea officially notified China on the day it tested a hypersonic missile that it would be absent from the Beijing Winter Olympics. However, North Korea also clarified that not participating in the Olympics was not spontaneous, but a last resort, emphasizing that it will continue to develop friendly relations with China.
North Korea analyst Chad O’Carroll tweeted: “I don’t think China would welcome North Korea’s test on its doorstep on the eve of the Beijing Olympics.”
“If this continues, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility that (North Korea) may be disappointed in China in some way.”
However, Panda believes that although “Beijing may not be satisfied with these missile tests, it may be tolerated enough in the end.” Because the tests did not involve nuclear weapons or long-range missile launches, Panda called it “China’s red line.”
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed on Monday that China-DPRK rail freight has restarted on the basis of ensuring epidemic prevention and safety.
Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert, explained to the BBC: “The timing shows that Beijing is not just complicit in Pyongyang’s provocative actions. China is coordinating with it both economically and militarily.”
He also emphasized, “Considering its strategic relationship with China, North Korea may end military exercises and missile tests in early 2022 before the Winter Olympics. This timing also shows that North Korea does not want to remain silent before South Korea’s presidential election, nor does it Hope to appear dying when China offers aid.”