November 21, 2022 10:16
In the face of the images that come to us from Iran it is essential to remain cautious, above all because there is a lack of independent and confirmed reports. Nonetheless, the short videos shot by the Iranians show us something astounding and raise important questions about the continuation of the protest.
We bring two examples. The first is the huge crowd present at the funeral – which took place on Saturday in the province of Kuzestan, in the southeastern part of the country – of a nine-year-old boy named Kian, killed while he was in a car with his family. Two armed civilians on motorcycles, police according to the family, had opened fire on the car, killing the child and seriously wounding the father. The death of little Kian has aroused even stronger emotions than that of Mahsa Jina Amini, who started the protests two months ago.
The second example comes from Mahabad, a Kurdish city in the north of the country where there were scenes of urban warfare followed by fraternization between protesters and riot police who refused to intervene. Even in that case it is right to interpret with caution, but in any case these are unprecedented situations.
The uncertain future
Challenge images pop up all over the place. The entire Iranian women’s basketball team was photographed bareheaded, ignoring the obligation to wear a veil. Elsewhere a couple were photographed kissing between cars. The barriers keep falling.
From all this emerges a crucial question: what will be the future developments? After two months of going from protest to revolt (one would almost have to pronounce the word revolution) the future remains uncertain.
The movement goes on with ever more direct slogans
The repression is very harsh, with over 300 dead including about forty children according to human rights activists, as well as 14,000 arrests and the first death sentences. Over time the regime tightening may prevail as it has in the past, but so far it has had no impact. The movement continues with ever more direct slogans, such as “death to the dictator” directed against the supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
At this point, different scenarios open up. Considering the images coming from Mahabad, the rumors about a split in the regime and the determination of the young people but also of the government hawks, we cannot rule out the possibility of a civil war. Khomeini’s Iran has already experienced several periods close to civil war in the past, and if part of the security forces sided with the demonstrators this possibility would become more concrete.
But there is a second option. In fact, analysts hypothesize a “Pakistani-style” scenario, i.e. a militarization of power to the detriment of the domination of the religious. In this case, the Guardians of the Revolution, the armed wing of the Islamic republic, would become more nationalist than messianic, a true shadow power in the image of the Pakistani military.
This military breakthrough would allow social concessions to be made to protesters, especially urban youth, while preserving the reality of political power. It is difficult to imagine such a development as long as Imam Khamenei is alive, but a deterioration of the situation could precipitate events.
Finally, a window must be left open, minimal for reasons of realism but nonetheless existing, for a victory of the protest movement. In order for this to happen, a profound breakdown of the current balances and the relationship of forces would be indispensable. But Iran never ceases to amaze us, and will certainly continue to do so.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)