October 13, 2022 12:25
For Vladimir Putin it was a lonely birthday. Few major world leaders bothered to call him or send a birthday card. Sure, the president of Belarus sent him a tractor, but there is another man who did not disappoint.
On 7 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who continues to define Putin as a “dear friend”, wished him well. Putin responded by thanking him for his attempts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. The two leaders are expected to meet in Kazakhstan on October 13, just two days after the barrage of missiles and explosive drones against Ukraine.
It was thought that the war would strain relations between Turkey, a NATO country, and Russia, the greatest threat to the Atlantic Alliance. But the opposite happened: the agreement was strengthened. For years, Turkey has been Russia’s most trusted partner within NATO. Now the war has evidently increased the importance of Ankara’s role.
A safe haven
For Russia, now regarded as a pariah in much of the West, Turkey has become a safe haven, the only country in Europe that still welcomes Russian companies and the head of the Kremlin with open arms. For Turkey, on the other hand, Russia has become an increasingly essential trading partner and source of money. Putin needs Turkey’s help to save what remains of his legitimacy on the world stage, while Erdoğan, who faces elections next year, needs Russia’s help to maintain power.
Erdoğan seems more inclined to criticize Western governments for “provoking” Russia than to condemn it for the atrocities committed in Ukraine
During the course of the war, the Turkish government did its part in supporting Ukraine. Turkey sold armed drones to Kiev and called for an international treaty to prevent the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces to Russia. In addition, Ankara is assisting Ukraine in the construction of four modern Ada-type corvettes, and the first was launched in early October. Thanks to an agreement brokered by Turkey during the summer, Ukraine, whose ports were subject to the Russian naval blockade, was able to resume exports of grain by sea. But Ankara remains close to Russia. The leaders of the two countries meet and talk on the phone regularly.
The good nature that distinguishes the relations between Putin and Erdoğan has not changed despite the wars in Syria, the Caucasus and Libya, in which Turkey and Russia managed to collaborate despite supporting opposing sides. This dynamic was also maintained in Ukraine. Today Erdoğan seems more inclined to criticize Western governments for “provoking” Russia than to condemn the atrocities committed by the Moscow army in Ukraine. “Europe is reaping what it sowed,” the Turkish president stressed in September when Russia cut off gas supplies to European countries in response to the latest sanctions. Erdoğan “begins to behave like Putin’s lawyer,” explains Hakan Aksay, a Turkish expert on Russian affairs.
New commercial record
Not only does Turkey oppose Western sanctions against Russia, it has found ways to benefit from them. This year, trade between the two countries has already exceeded 50 billion dollars, a new record after 34.7 billion in 2021. The nearly twenty flights connecting Moscow and Istanbul every day are full of tourists and men on the run from the mobilization. At least some of the Russians who reach Turkey are determined to stay. Since the beginning of the year, more than eight thousand Russians have bought a house in Turkey, taking first place in the ranking of foreign buyers. In August alone, the Russians reported 128 new companies in Turkey.
Russia has also reinvigorated the Turkish banking system. During the summer, the Russian company Rosatom paid about five billion dollars to Turkey to finance the construction of a nuclear power plant on the Mediterranean coast. But the flow of rubles and Russian citizens attracted the attention of the United States. In the summer, a US Treasury official reported that Russia was trying to use Turkey to circumvent Western sanctions, urging Turkish companies not to do business with sanctioned Russian citizens. Turkish banks responded by suspending the use of the Russian Myr payment system.
In a context in which the national economy is ravaged by inflation, which reached 83 percent in September, Erdoğan is approaching next year’s elections on an uphill road. The Turkish leader has tried to get economic support from countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but without great success. Today he seems willing to ask for Russia’s assistance. Recently, according to Bloomberg, Turkey agreed to pay 25 percent of its Russian gas consumption in rubles and asked Moscow to move the maturities of part of the energy debt to 2024. Erdoğan, in any case, appears optimistic.
European leaders worry about surviving the winter without Russian gas, he said on 10 October. “I told him we don’t have that kind of worry.”
Turkish policy towards Russia would not radically change even if Erdoğan lost power. Indeed, no Turkish political party would like a confrontation with Moscow. Yet Putin knows well that it will not be easy to recreate a relationship like the one he has forged with Erdoğan over the past twenty years. “He knows his weaknesses and his way of doing politics”, explains Mitat Çelikpala, professor at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. For this reason, Putin could decide to lend a hand to his friend, perhaps with a discount on gas, a cash injection or the green light for a new Turkish offensive against the Kurdish rebels in Syria.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
This article appeared in the British weekly The Economist.