Will Xi’s re-election be challenged?
Xi Jinping led a constitutional revision in 2018 that removed term limits for the Chinese president, clearing the way for continued rule.
From September 14 to 16, Chinese leader Xi Jinping attended the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. President of the Republic Mirziyoyev invited the two countries for a state visit.
According to a report by the British BBC Chinese website on September 29, according to these trends, Hong Kong current affairs commentator Liu Ruishuo said that this reflects that Xi Jinping’s status is already very strong, otherwise he will not visit abroad before the 20th National Congress.
Chen Cheng, a professor of political science at the State University of New York at Albany, said that Xi Jinping’s re-election as the top leader of the 20th Party Congress is certain.
Chen Daoyin, a former associate professor of the Department of Politics at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, who now lives in Chile, also believes that Xi Jinping has no challenges.
Chen Daoyin said, “In terms of power structure, no power department in the party can challenge Xi’s authority, and no party leader is willing to challenge Xi’s authority. There must be complaints, but they are really willing to stand up and bear history. No responsibility or political mission.”
Chen Daoyin believes that since 2012, Xi Jinping may influence and dominate Chinese history for 30 years.
Chen Daoyin said that when Xi Jinping came to power, he proposed a new era to distinguish it from the Deng era. The Mao Zedong era lasted 30 years, Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” era was basically 30 years, and Xi Jinping’s “new era” was about 30 years away. Now 10 years have passed, and it will probably take another 10 years. I can’t say whether it will be another 10 years.
“After 2032, maybe Xi Jinping may step down, but he may still be the absolute authority within the party like Deng Xiaoping,” he said.
Regarding the issue of successors, Chen Cheng said that there was no obvious successor before the 20th National Congress.
Chen Cheng said, “After the 20th National Congress, it is not easy to predict how long Xi will serve as the top leader. If there is no obvious successor at the 20th National Congress, it means that he has left his option for re-election in the future.”
“Seven ups and eight downs” means that CCP officials who are 68 years old leave office, and those who are 67 years old and below can stay in office.
Currently, Xi Jinping, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng are all 68 years old among the seven Politburo Standing Committee members. By convention, neither Li Zhanshu nor Han Zheng could remain in office, leaving two positions vacated for the Standing Committee.
Chen Daoyin pointed out that although “seven ups and eight downs” is not a legal system for the replacement of leadership power in the strict sense, only Xi Jinping can break the “seven ups and eight downs” convention.
Chen Cheng believes that Xi is unlikely to completely change the “seven up and eight down” conventions at the 20th National Congress.
Chen Cheng said, “Xi’s own re-election also went through a major move like amending the constitution to make it procedurally justifiable. Back then, Xi didn’t change the practice of ‘several oversights’ because of his close confidant Wang Qishan, and he probably won’t now. Therefore, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng should resign from the Standing Committee and have other appointments.”
The BBC reported that if any member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China leaves office, who will “join the permanent” to fill the vacancy. In this regard, Liu Ruishao pointed out that Xi Jinping should consider two factors at the same time: “First, those who join the Standing Committee or remain on the Standing Committee will have a better understanding of the future. Does Xi Jinping’s personal power have any influence? Second, these people must be able to help him solve the problem.” If he only focuses on promoting his own people and cannot solve the problem, it will not be good for himself.
Chen Daoyin believes that it is possible to observe what positions the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held before taking office. The first is the municipal party secretaries of several municipalities directly under the Central Government, such as Shanghai, Chongqing, and Tianjin, and the provincial party secretaries of major economic provinces, such as Guangdong. Xi Jinping’s former subordinates in Zhejiang and Shanghai are also popular candidates for “permanent”.
After Xi Jinping assumed the leadership of the Communist Party, he promoted a number of his subordinates in Zhejiang and Shanghai. Known as the “New Army of the River” or “Xi’s Army”, these people include Cai Qi, Secretary of the CPC Beijing Municipal Committee, Li Qiang, Secretary of the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee, Chen Miner, Secretary of the CPC Chongqing Municipal Committee, Li Qiang, Secretary of the CPC Guangdong Provincial Committee, and Ding Xuexiang, Director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee .
The CCP virus outbreak in Shanghai in the first half of this year made Li Qiang’s career confusing, and political analysts have different views on his future direction.
Chen Daoyin believes that Li Qiang’s actions in Shanghai just carried out Xi Jinping’s orders, and neither good or bad will affect his personal development.
Chen Cheng said: “The Shanghai epidemic was indeed handled very poorly, and Li Qiang was not punished, but the damage to his reputation would definitely have an impact. It doesn’t mean that he is completely impossible to become a regular, but if he does, Xi Jinping will inevitably suffer because’ He was criticized for being cronyism.”
However, Chen Cheng also said that regardless of the final composition of the Standing Committee, Xi’s core position will not be shaken, and the new Standing Committee will faithfully implement Xi’s line and policy on this basis.
Hu Chunhua is more likely to be prime minister?
In March of this year, the current Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at a press conference at the National People’s Congress that this year is the last year of the current government and his last year as prime minister. The remarks seemed to reveal that he would not remain prime minister.
Chen Daoyin said that Li Keqiang had already made his pre-resignation voice and was ready to get off at the station.
Chen Cheng believes that Li Keqiang may still remain as a member of the Standing Committee, and even if he does not remain a member of the Standing Committee, Li is likely to get a decent appointment.
Within the CCP, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Wang Yang, Chen Min’er and Li Qiang are all popular candidates for prime minister.
Hu Chunhua, 59, and Li Keqiang, 67, both graduated from Peking University and came from the “Tuanpai”. Hu Chunhua served successively as Governor of Hebei, Secretary of the Party Committee of Inner Mongolia and Secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee. The officials of the “Yuanpai” all move to the center of the Communist Party’s power through the Chinese Communist Youth League, and Hu Jintao, the former general secretary of the Communist Party of China, is also regarded as a member of the “Tuanpai”.
Liu Ruishao believes that compared with the candidates who have not been admitted to the permanent residence, it is impossible to see who is more experienced than Hu Chunhua, because he has experience in the local area and also in the central government; Chen Miner only has local work experience, not in the central government. work experience.
Chen Cheng pointed out that Hu Chunhua is very likely to be a member of the Standing Committee, “Although he has a Tuan faction background, this will not be the reason for Xi to suppress him. In the past few years, Hu has been relatively low-key, and Xi’s arrangement of his supervisor is also more important to Xi himself. The promotion of Hu will be an important part of the 20th National Congress to reflect the unity of the party. Hu has the potential to become the next prime minister.”