It is a classic story upstream and downstream, of a great mythical river, and of one of the great problems of the century: access to water. The river in question is the Nile, one of the longest in the world, which threatens to unleash a war between the three countries it crosses: Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
For ten years, Ethiopia has begun construction of one of the largest hydroelectric dams in Africa, which has created a 79 square kilometer basin on the Blue Nile, one of the two branches of the river. But all the negotiations between Ethiopia and the two downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, proved fruitless. Meanwhile, the tones have risen more and more.
Addis Ababa announced on July 5 the start of the second phase of filling the basin, causing an outcry in Cairo, where the Nile is a matter of national security, vital for the irrigation and water consumption of millions of people. A meeting of the UN Security Council is scheduled for 8 July, but Ethiopia only accepts the mediation of the African Union, which is beating around the bush.
National pride
Egypt fears a 25 percent reduction in Nile flow during the rainy season of the basin in Ethiopia. This decline directly threatens Egyptian food production. The disagreement is therefore based on the filling of the basin: Ethiopia wants to complete the work in seven years, while Egypt asks for at least double.
The Egyptian head of state, Marshal Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, openly threatens Ethiopia with military action if an agreement is not found. Al Sisi has the support of Sudan, which has remained neutral for a long time because it will benefit from the electricity produced by the dam. But now Khartoum is in conflict with Ethiopia over a border issue.
Dams are a source of national pride and often of confrontation. Egypt had also transformed the Aswan Dam, built by the Soviet Union, into a pillar of national independence during the Nasser and Cold War era. Ethiopia has associated the same pride with its project, pompously dubbed Grand ethiopian renaissance, and by acting unilaterally it shows that it does not want to give in to pressure.
Ethiopia already has to deal with the war in Tigray, but it is precisely because it suffered a bitter defeat in the inner province, where the army was forced to withdraw, that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed cannot afford to step back on the dam.
So there are all the ingredients for a worsening of the crisis: an Ethiopian government whose prestige is at risk, an Egyptian leader who has created a sacred union around himself, even receiving the support of the Muslim Brotherhood (whose leaders are in prison ) and a Sudan already mobilized at the border.
In a region where there is no shortage of hot topics, common sense would encourage sharing of resources. The example of the Senegal River, managed by all the countries it crosses, could inspire that of the Nile. But so far the rivalries between powers have prevented any agreement.
All this seems to give reason to the experts who for years have reiterated that the wars of the twenty-first century would be fought for water and no longer for oil.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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