Even if at the moment the hospital system is proving to be able to respond to the increase in hospitalizations for Covid-19, the epidemiological situation in Italy is on the alert because, with this rate of increase in cases, the risk of clogging hospitals is still strong because it can reach 2 million positives. This is the prediction of the Gimbe Foundation, while the concern for the spread of the more infectious Omicron variant of the SasrCov2 virus rises after the latest data released by the Higher Institute of Health, which attest that its prevalence has reached 28.4% in wastewater samples and is in strong increase.
More cases of Covid, even if the high number of infected “does not correspond to a parallel increase in hospitalizations”, but, “with this growth rate we still risk clogging up hospitals because we can reach two million positives”: to speak is Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation, speaking on the show ‘Italy has awakened on Radio Cusano Campus. “All the measures put in place so far by the government – he said – are a sum of hot panels that are unable to slow down the circulation of the virus”, then explaining that more smart working is needed to help slow down circulation.
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“We have an enormous amount of cases, never seen before – continues Cartabellotta – so much so that many have defined Omicron as the most contagious virus in history and the numbers we are seeing are clear in this sense. We have on a moving average about 100 thousand cases a day” . And having 100,000 positive people a day means that “1100 are hospitalized in the medical area and 120 in intensive care. Surely it is due to the increase in booster doses and we also hope that Omicron is less virulent”. If the congestion of the hospitals is “slower, however the impact is there and with this growth rate we risk reaching 2 million positives and even if the hospitalization rate were 1%, we would have 20 thousand people in hospital “. For Cartabellotta it is therefore necessary to try to lower the circulation of the virus. First of all, “we need to limit social contacts, perhaps by increasing smart working”.
“I hope a peak of infections within the month of January – he explains then Massimo Galli in Agorà, on Rai Tre. – From how it rises, the curve does not allow for certain predictions. Surely for a day or 2 we will have fewer tampons and, in percentage, more infected, because in these holidays only those who have symptoms or direct contacts with positives do them, but it changes little, because tampon or not tampon, diffusion is a given in fact. Realistically, I still expect growth for several days and I believe this requires caution “predicts Galli, full professor of infectious diseases at the State University of Milan.” It is possible – Galli later told Sky Tg24 – that it will reach 200 thousand infections a day also in Italy.
In this context, according to the predictions of the mathematician of the Cnr Giovanni Sebastiani, the map of Italy is preparing to change colors again: if tomorrow’s data confirms the trend of the last few days, next Friday Tuscany and Umbria will be declared yellow, while Liguria will slide into orange, a fate that could also affect Piedmont between about ten days and in the Marches in just under three weeks, even if these times could shorten due to the delayed influence of the surge in infections in the last ten days.
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