Home » Withdrawal of nearly 5 billion funds from coal futures in a single day, the Development and Reform Commission rarely uses the price method to intervene in coal prices

Withdrawal of nearly 5 billion funds from coal futures in a single day, the Development and Reform Commission rarely uses the price method to intervene in coal prices

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Original title: The withdrawal of nearly 5 billion funds from coal futures in a single day, the Development and Reform Commission rarely uses the price method to intervene in coal prices

The regulation at the futures level is only a “temporary cure” and cannot “cure the root cause”.

Stabilizing commodity prices and ensuring supply is the focus of this year, but it is the first time in the commodity market in the past ten years that it is clear that the statement of “implementing intervention measures on coal prices in accordance with the law” has been made.

On the afternoon of October 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission organized key coal companies, China Coal Industry Association, and China Electricity Council to hold a coal seminar on the energy supply mechanism for this winter and next spring to study the implementation of intervention measures on coal prices in accordance with the law. Since then, the two markets for cargo and coal fell sharply on the same day.

By the close of the noon on October 20, 33 of the 36 futures contracts listed on thermal coal, coke and coking coal fell by the limit; in the stock market, the Wind coal mining index also saw a decline of 7.25%. Lanhua Science and Technology, Yanzhou Coal, Many stocks such as Pingmei Coal have dropped their limit.

On October 20th, Liu Huifeng, chief researcher of Donghai Futures’ black commodities, pointed out that “the most direct impact on the market is the psychological level. Yesterday, during the late trading stage of the daytime trading, thermal coal futures have already shown a high-level correction trend.”

“Anyone that can lower the limit lowers the limit”

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, Article 30 of the Price Law clearly stipulates that when the prices of important goods and services rise significantly or are likely to rise significantly, the State Council and the people’s governments of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities may adopt a limited price difference rate or profit rate, or regulations on certain prices. Price limit, implementation of price increase declaration system and price adjustment filing system and other intervention measures.

“Coal is an important basic energy source and is closely related to the national economy and people’s livelihood. The current price increase has completely deviated from the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the heating season is approaching, and the price is still showing a trend of further irrational increase.” The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that it will make full use of all the provisions of the price law. Necessary means to study specific measures to intervene in coal prices, promote the return of coal prices to a reasonable range, promote the return of the coal market to rationality, ensure a safe and stable supply of energy, and ensure that the people will survive the winter warmly.

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This is a big difference between coal and other bulk commodities. Because it involves some people’s livelihood issues, the demand for stable prices is stronger than that of steel and nonferrous metals, which are more related to the manufacturing industry.

The rare use of the price method to intervene directly caused a sharp drop in the futures market, and coal futures almost fell to the limit across the board.

In the night trading on October 19, coal futures fell sharply across the board. As of the morning of the 20th, 12 contracts of thermal coal futures of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had a lower limit across the board, 10 contracts of coke futures of DCE had a lower limit, and 11 contracts of coking coal futures had a lower limit.

There are a few contracts that have not fallen limit, only the coke 2111 contract, the 2112 contract and the coking coal 2111 contract, all of which are non-mainstream contracts in recent months.

Concomitantly, the existing holding funds of the aforementioned coal futures have apparently withdrawn.

As of the noon closing on October 20, the single-day outflow of holding funds reached 4.882 billion yuan, which is equivalent to more than 12% of the centralized outflow of holding funds.

What needs to be pointed out is that in the early stage of rapid rise in coal prices, the futures exchanges have adopted methods such as adjusting margins, handling fees, and even limiting the number of positions opened.

In the meantime, coal futures positions and transactions have dropped significantly.

Taking the coking coal futures as an example, the open interest and trading volume on September 9 were 223,000 lots and 192,000 lots, respectively. They had dropped to 125,000 and 112,000 lots on October 19, and coke and thermal coal futures also appeared. Similar trends.

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Regarding the regulation of the futures market alone, the exchange level has done its best.

“For futures alone, one of the signs of peaking includes the increase in price fluctuations.” Liu Huifeng said that the coal industry has already shown the above characteristics in the early stage. Now, with the further strengthening of the control, the stage is at the top. It has been established that the possibility of a sharp rise in the later period has been significantly reduced.

Treat both symptoms and root causes, supply and demand adjustment has been initiated

The regulation at the futures level is only a “temporary cure” and cannot “cure the root cause”.

Because the core of the excessive rise in coal prices lies in the relationship between supply and demand, after the futures market has completed its own regulatory tasks, it is the coal spot that should be strengthened. This can be seen from the fact that the futures price is always lower than the coal spot price due to regulatory factors. out.

Therefore, the current adjustment of the coal spot market is more important. The main idea is to directly control the price and adjust the supply and demand.

In terms of price. On the 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on key coal, power, oil and gas transportation companies to ensure supply and price stabilization, and pointed out that “central enterprises must play a leading role in ensuring supply and price stabilization… Strictly implement medium and long-term contract coal prices and take the lead in reducing market transaction coal prices.”

Some major coal-producing areas have begun to implement stricter price-limiting measures.

On October 19th, Yulin City held a special meeting on coal supply guarantee for the fourth quarter, requesting that the coal price in the main coal-producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia be adjusted by 100 yuan/ton from the current basis on the 19th.

Yulin Mayor Zhang Shengli proposed that all state-owned enterprises in Yulin will take the lead in reducing prices by 100 yuan/ton before 18:00 on the 19th. The price for enterprises that have signed a long-term agreement shall not exceed 1,200 yuan/ton, and private enterprises shall not exceed 1,500 yuan/ton.

In contrast, the adjustment of the relationship between supply and demand plays a fundamental role.

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“Since the end of September, a batch of production coal mines has been approved, and the average daily output has increased by more than 1.2 million tons compared with September. The daily output on October 18 has exceeded 11.6 million tons, a new high this year.” The above-mentioned symposium pointed out.

In addition, among the next several key tasks to maintain supply and stabilize prices, the first is to “further release coal production capacity”, and the second is to “steadily increase coal production.”

The meeting requested that, on the basis of the nuclear increase in production capacity, by tapping the potential of nuclear increase in production coal production capacity, basically completing the coal mines to speed up the joint trial operation, shutting down the production of coal mines, resuming production, and allowing coal mines to release emergency reserve capacity, etc. Release a batch of coal production capacity.

At the same time, in the fourth quarter, all coal mines must organize production in a safe and reasonable manner under the premise of ensuring safety. All localities must maintain normal production of coal mines during holidays and major events. It is strictly forbidden to shut down coal mines at will, and it is strictly forbidden to stop coal mines in a “one size fits all” area due to accidents in individual coal mines, to ensure that coal mines can produce full production under safe conditions, and strive to achieve a daily coal output of 1,200 More than 10,000 tons.

“The increase in supply is only one aspect. The demand side’s power curtailment for the two high-level projects is also continuing. For example, yesterday (19th) Shagang halted production of some rolling mills due to power curtailment. At the same time, many provinces and cities also issued relevant policies on electricity price increases. It will have a certain inhibitory effect on the demand side.” Liu Huifeng said.

Of course, it may take some time for the above-mentioned control measures to take effect. The fall in coal prices still requires substantial changes in the relationship between supply and demand, such as bottoming out and accumulation of inventory data.

(Author: Dong Peng Editor: Zhu Yimin)


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