Is diplomacy the continuation of the war by other means? Or is it instead a way to avoid it or at least put an end to it when it was not possible to avert it? In the coming days we will have new elements to answer this question thanks to a series of international events.
For the first time since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine nearly nine months ago, the leaders of the world‘s major economies will gather early next week for the G20 in Bali, Indonesia. All will be there, except one: Vladimir Putin, who has chosen the empty chair policy and will be represented by the very faithful Sergej Lavrov, the foreign minister.
On the other hand, US President Joe Biden, Chinese number one Xi Jinping and European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Giorgia Meloni will be present, as well as those from large emerging countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa. Some countries represented, starting with the Western ones, are lined up alongside Ukraine; others, like China, support Russia politically; still others, finally, have taken refuge in an uncomfortable “non-alignment”. The Bali Summit will be the first occasion after the outbreak of the war where world leaders will have a chance to meet. By deserting the event, Putin runs the risk of remaining isolated and leaving the field open to his enemies.
Face-to-face historian
The key moment, as Beijing and Washington confirmed yesterday, will be the face-to-face scheduled November 14 between Biden and Xi, the two great rivals of the twenty-first century. The heads of government of the United States and China have known each other from their time in the vice presidency of their respective countries, but they have never met in person since Biden’s election two years ago.
This is an important moment, as relations between the two countries continue to deteriorate. Last month Biden made some decisions regarding the semiconductor industry (of which we know the strategic importance) that constitute a declaration of technological war against China. Beijing has not yet reacted, but the blow to China’s capacity for innovation has been severe.
Russia represents an aggravating element of this increasingly conflicting relationship. In fact, China is divided between political support for the project to change the Western order and the hope of not becoming a collateral victim of the Russian failure. Among the issues fueling the tension between the two countries, Russia occupies a prominent place.
The scheduled meetings will not have an immediate impact on the war, also because no one intends to negotiate in the place of Russia and Ukraine, whose presidents will speak only by videoconference. But the fact that something is finally moving among the G20 countries is already a positive sign.
The international climate is certainly not encouraging, as evidenced by the fact that on November 9 Emmanuel Macron addressed the military in Toulon talking about the “great geopolitical confrontation of tomorrow”. Meanwhile, in Beijing, Xi Jinping appeared wearing a camouflage suit and urged the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China to be “loyal and effective in planning the war” and to show “the courage to win”.
What can diplomacy do in the face of the “logic of war”? We will find out during the G20 but also during two other summits scheduled in Asia: Biden, in fact, will first be in Phnom Penh for the ASEAN summit, the group of South Asian countries, and then in Bangkok to talk with APEC, the organization of the countries of Asia-Pacific. We shouldn’t expect miracles, but it has been a long time since world leaders hadn’t spoken to each other live. It is already something.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)