Home » [Yokogawa’s point of view]The CCP is worried that the US delegation’s visit to Taiwan and Russia will not go well | The situation in Ukraine | Sino-US relations | Russia

[Yokogawa’s point of view]The CCP is worried that the US delegation’s visit to Taiwan and Russia will not go well | The situation in Ukraine | Sino-US relations | Russia

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[Yokogawa’s point of view]The CCP is worried that the US delegation’s visit to Taiwan and Russia will not go well | The situation in Ukraine | Sino-US relations | Russia

[Epoch Times March 02, 2022]Hello, viewers, I am Yokogawa, and welcome to the “Yokogawa Viewpoint” channel, Tuesday, March 1.

Today’s focus: The US heavyweight delegation visits Taiwan, and the focus of the Asia-Pacific remains unchanged; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not smooth, and it is a major blow to the CCP’s plan to invade Taiwan.

The war between Russia and Ukraine is fierce, and the US delegation and Pompeo’s visit to Taiwan shows that the US maintains its strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific. Nixon’s ice-breaking trip to China 50 years ago needs to admit that the world has changed. Taiwan’s confidence has been greatly affected, and it is necessary to compare the strengths and weaknesses of Russia and China’s military rivals and their own.

This weekend’s member topic is also about the situation in Ukraine, but the focus is on the situation of Chinese citizens in Ukraine and the evacuation of overseas Chinese. It will premiere on YouTube at 9 pm on Saturday. If you haven’t caught up with the premiere, please go to my member website to watch it. The URL of the member’s website is in the description section below the video and in the top of the message. Everyone is welcome to subscribe.

The Russian-Ukrainian war, the US delegation visits Taiwan, reiterates the US-Indo-Pacific strategic focus, the CCP is dissatisfied

When the fighting in Ukraine was extremely fierce, Biden sent a senior bipartisan delegation to visit Taiwan. The delegation was led by former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Murren, and the members were almost all former senior officials related to defense and national security.

The delegation arrived in Taiwan on the afternoon of March 1 and will carry out a series of activities, including a meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen of the Republic of China. Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will also visit Taiwan on March 2. This timing is very important.

I have noticed that whenever the United States wants to pay attention to the situation in the Asia-Pacific or the Indo-Pacific region, it will definitely happen in other parts of the earth, whether it is a terrorist attack or a regional war. In short, it is difficult not to interfere. This time, too, shortly after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia invaded Ukraine and broke out the largest ground war in Europe since World War II. Will the United States be deeply involved in European affairs again so that the CCP can take the opportunity to expand its sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific region and globally?

This is indeed a concern in the Asia Pacific region, especially Taiwan. The US delegation’s visit to Taiwan this time has reassured Taiwan and its Asia-Pacific allies and reiterated its intention to return to the Indo-Pacific strategy.

The CCP expresses its dissatisfaction as usual. Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said: urge the United States to abide by the “one China principle” and the “three Sino-US joint communiques”, stop any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, and handle Taiwan-related issues prudently to avoid serious damage. The overall situation of Sino-US relations and the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.

However, whether it is the United States or Taiwan, such conventional clichés are no longer taken seriously. The CCP is different from Russia. Russia is really fighting, but the CCP has few examples of it. This is not to say that Taiwan can relax, what is said here is that the CCP prefers to resolve disputes with intrigue rather than weapons.

The 50th anniversary of Nixon’s ice-breaking trip to China

Just past February 21, it was the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s ice-breaking trip to China. Neither China nor the United States held any major celebrations. There were only some low-key commemorative activities in the academic circles, and some people even talked about the possibility of breaking the ice again.

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In fact, the actual requirements of the two sides on the icebreaker trip are now reversed. Although there is still some nostalgia for interests and reluctance to admit that the world has changed, the historical trend is obvious, and it is useless to refuse to admit it.

Fifty years ago was the peak of the Cold War. The United States needed to relax with the CCP to deal with the Soviet Union together, while the CCP needed the support of external forces due to its ideological opposition to the Soviet Union. The two sides hit it off.

Today, neither side has any demand for the other at all. What the United States demands of the CCP is not to cause trouble, not to poach walls, not to directly challenge the United States, and the CCP has nothing to help, but only regards the United States as a stumbling block for the CCP’s own global expansion. That’s it.

How can this kind of foundation be talked about once again in ping-pong diplomacy? Moreover, the CCP has already placed its bets on Russia. Not to mention the United States, Russia and Ukraine, which are almost equally friendly sides of the war, can openly support Russia. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that when the balance of victory and defeat in the war is reversed, the possibility that the CCP will turn its backside with its usual speculative psychology.

Comparing the Russian and Chinese armies in terms of war goals, tactics, combat power and morale, the prospects for the CCP’s attack on Taiwan are not good

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an ominous omen for China’s planned attack on Taiwan.

What was Russia’s war goal?

At first I thought it was to prevent NATO from expanding eastward, and the other was to establish a border buffer zone. These two points were basically completed before the invasion. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the heads of the 27 NATO member states at that time did not dare to Recognizing and accepting Ukraine’s accession to NATO, and if Russia only recognizes the independence of the two regions of Ukraine and the east, will not cause the entire free world to share the same hatred.

Unexpectedly, Putin would ignore some of the previous achievements, invaded in an all-round way, and cut his own way. If Putin’s original plan was to annex Ukraine, then Russia’s national strength would have completely misjudged the situation.

As I said last time, Russia likes to fight, but doesn’t win as much, at least not as much as people think. The two battles between Napoleon and Hitler were somewhat exposed to the cold weather. During the Kangxi period, they were defeated by the Qing army. That is the origin of the Treaty of Nerchinsk.

The last time I talked about the war in Afghanistan, which lasted for 9 years, and the second war in Chechnya, which lasted for nearly 10 years, they were both extremely difficult, not to mention Ukraine, which is much more developed and has a much larger population. What I am talking about here is the war itself, and it has nothing to do with the cause of the war, whether Russia has its own reasons or not.

The CCP’s goal for Taiwan has always been very clear, that is, complete annexation. Because Taiwan is an island, there is no possibility of partial annexation except for the Golden Horses, so there is no possibility of a gradual escalation of the war. It is similar to the situation in Russia now, that is, if it does not succeed, it will fail miserably.

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tactical question

This time, Russia is obviously planning to quickly take down the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in a blitzkrieg-like manner, destroying the current government in one fell swoop, and expecting resistance from all over the world to collapse. If the war is ended within 3 days, and it is delayed until a week later, the chances of winning are not big.

The military power comparison between Russia and Ukraine is about 10:1 in all aspects, but there is not such a big gap in actual combat. After the setback, Russia is now increasing its troops, and the military vehicles to Kyiv are up to 60 kilometers long. Kyiv will face a bloodier war, but on the other hand, it also shows that Russia underestimated the resistance of Ukraine in the first wave of attack, so there was no Throw in enough troops and lose the chance to get a big boost. Ukraine is a great plain, with no natural dangers, it is difficult to defend and easy to attack, and it is so difficult to fight.

Compared with the CCP, it faces more difficult opponents and terrain. When the CCP invaded Taiwan, it was impossible to enter a large army to land at the beginning. The natural danger of the Taiwan Strait is much more difficult to attack than the plains outside Kyiv. This time, the Russian army is considered to be backward in tactics, and the tactics of the communist army, from the point of view of the Sino-Russian joint military exercise, are even more backward than the Russian army.

combat power comparison

Although the Russian army is not as experienced as the US military, it is still fighting intermittently. So far, NATO has not dispatched ground troops. The Russian army is completely fighting with the Ukrainian army and volunteers. Serious problems with coordination.

The communist army has not fought since the Sino-Vietnamese border conflict in 1979, and its combat effectiveness is mostly inferior to that of the Russian army. Now the Ukrainian army and the weapons provided by Europe and the United States have resisted it for 5 days. We used to think that when the communist army invaded Taiwan, the U.S. military needed quick intervention. Now it seems that the Taiwan army is very likely to be able to persist beyond the outside world‘s imagination at the beginning, like the Ukrainian army. And judging from Ukraine’s performance this time, the more resolute the resistance and the longer it lasts, the stronger the international aid will be.

This principle can also be applied to the Taiwan Strait. Of course, Taiwan’s support will be much larger than Ukraine at the beginning, because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and Taiwan is the hub of the first island chain to contain the CCP. In addition to the United States, Japan and Australia have a growing willingness to support.

morale problem

On the one hand, Russia underestimated Ukraine’s will to resist, and on the other hand, it may have also overestimated its own morale. The Russian army showed signs of low morale from the beginning. After all, this is not a war to defend the homeland.

However, if the CCP wants to launch a war in the Taiwan Strait, it will face even more serious morale problems. After all, the CCP army is the first army in human history that is mostly composed of only children. It is not a big problem to end the war within a few days. If the serious casualties are spread to the rear, it will seriously shake the hearts and minds of the army and the people.

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Although the result of the CCP’s long-term brainwashing will initially receive a considerable degree of support from the people, it is not defending the country after all.

Ukrainian resistance earns respect and support beyond expectations

How the Ukrainian government used to be corrupt, or how it colluded with U.S. politicians to export corruption. Judging from the available information, this is likely to be true, but it should be decided by the Ukrainian people, and what is related to the United States, the American people decide, and the Russian invasion is not One thing, this is two different things. Russia probably does not have the obligation and the right to send troops to fight corruption in Ukraine.

As far as the matter is concerned, for me, if the Ukrainian people and the government are against each other, the invasion of foreign enemies is the best chance. The Eight-Power Allied Forces entered Beijing, and the citizens of Beijing helped lead the way; Vietnam invaded Cambodia, and the Cambodian army and people welcomed it. The Khmer Rouge failed completely in less than a week. , was driven to the mountains.

If the Ukrainians chose to welcome the Russians, I would support their choice, but now clearly they have chosen to stand with the government against aggression, which is not something outsiders can dominate. Others have criticized the Ukrainian government for shooting civilians to protect itself. But the Ukrainian government dares to shoot at the civilians, and the civilians are willing to take up arms to defend the country, which just shows that the Ukrainian government and the people are of the same will when it comes to defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In this regard, I have always believed that after the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union made NATO unnecessary. The war could have been avoided. I believe that if Trump (Trump) was in office and his policies were followed through, this war would not have happened, but now it happens. I even suspect that Europe and the United States did not intend to support Ukraine at first, and may even give up. It was the resistance of the Ukrainians that changed the situation.

The difference can also be seen with Ukrainian refugees. Judging from the videos circulating on the Internet, the vast majority of Ukrainian refugees are women, the elderly and children, which forms a strong contrast with the refugee tide in the Middle East. A considerable proportion of refugees in the Middle East are even mostly able-bodied men. There are young Ukrainians who have returned to fight in the war.

As far as I can remember, this is a relatively rare phenomenon in recent decades of regional conflicts and wars. You know, before the Sino-Vietnamese border conflict more than 40 years ago, the children of high-ranking CCP officials were scrambling to be transferred from the front-line troops. Because there was no way out during the Cultural Revolution, the children of high-ranking officials all took the path of becoming soldiers. Suddenly there was going to be a war, and I was terrified.

Today I will focus on the impact of the situation in Ukraine on the CCP’s plan to invade Taiwan. If you like my show, please don’t forget to subscribe, like and retweet. Okay, thank you for watching, and thank the audience for their support of my program. See you on the next show.

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Responsible editor: Li Hao

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