There is a more pressing sense of urgency in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskii’s recent statements than at any other time since the start of the war. Zelenskii gave lengthy interviews, received several heads of state and multiplied phone calls to alert the world before the battle.
Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian leader wants to erase the sense of victory fueled by the repeated successes of his army, by the resistance in the Kiev region (which overcame the Russian offensive in the north) and above all by the destruction of the Russian cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the fleet in the Black Sea sunk by a Ukrainian missile off the coast of Odessa. The exploit is historic, as well as humiliating for Vladimir Putin, and can give the illusion that Ukraine is winning the war.
But the reality is more complex. The resistance of the port of Mariupol has been reduced to a handful of Ukrainian soldiers barricaded in an industrial complex, while the bombings of Kiev and Kharkiv in the last forty-eight hours, in response to the loss of the Moskva, have produced victims and serious damage. Above all, the ongoing preparations of the Russian army are fueling the concern.
A formidable confrontation
There are three reasons to fear the impending battle in the Donbass. The first is military: the Russian army has now concentrated the bulk of its assets in this eastern part of Ukraine, after having withdrawn from the north. The Russians can count on closer proximity to their rearguard and should experience fewer logistical difficulties.
The second reason is related to the terrain of the fight. Until now the battle had taken place in urban areas, more difficult to conquer and control, but in the future it will be fought in the open field and this makes Ukrainian positions more vulnerable to Russian carpet bombing. We are in a situation closer to the wars of the twentieth century than to those of the twenty-first.
The third reason is psychological in nature. The setbacks suffered by the Russian army make a success even more necessary for Putin, if possible before the anniversary of the victory over Nazism on 9 May, a symbolic date compared to the reasons used to justify the invasion.
The Ukrainian army has on its side a determination infinitely superior to that of the invaders, but also two weaknesses: the impossibility of replacing the fighters (all forces are already deployed) and the key issue of armaments. This is where Zelenskii pressing comes in. The Ukrainian president asks the world to grant him the means to fight, because once the battle has begun it will be much more difficult to guarantee supplies to the front.
Western arms deliveries are already substantial and heavier than at the start of the conflict. The Americans deliver long-range artillery pieces, combat helicopters, missiles and drones. But the quantities announced over the weekend only cover seven days of fighting.
In the absence of any prospect of political resolution (Moscow made it clear), the military option remains. From this reality derives Zelenskii’s sense of urgency, his war commander despite the fact that he will not give up without a fight. But to do it he must have the means.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)