Bologna, 4 August 2022 – La Generation Z beats the Millennials, the professionals in their fifties are on the run; medium-sized cities outnumber metropolises in democracy. If there were two maps of theabstention – sentimental and geographical – the design would be this: “In thirty years, from the policies of 1976, with a turnout of 93.4%, to those of 2006, participation has dropped by only 10 points – says Salvatore Vassallo, director of the Cattaneo Institute of Bologna – While just 12 years have passed, in 2018 it has already reached 73%: the reasons lie in the people and in the environment where they live “.
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Director Vassallo, what can we expect from this new electoral round?
“When a competition presents an uncertain outcome in a right-left polarization, the turnout increases. 2006, with the Union-Casa delle Libertà duel, was a small case. And when the stakes go up, so does the attention and participation: the regional elections of Emilia-Romagna in 2020 Bonaccini-Borgonzoni brought 68% to the polls against 37% in 2014 “.
Could the Meloni effect lead to more people to vote?
“It is really a puzzle and not only because we will vote close to the holidays. If clear visions are outlined in a transparent way, not loaded on the past or connected to the adversary’s demonic projections, you can win over many more people and convince the younger ones. “.
Could the abstention not continue its swoop?
“It is difficult to understand whether these elections will be perceived as a consultation with a foregone conclusion or as a great polarization. Abstention in recent years has grown mainly for two reasons”.
Which?
“On the one hand the rejection, the feeling of distance from the public sphere and this penalized the economically most disadvantaged categories and the peripheral electorate; on the other, the feeling that things cannot change, that it is not necessary to express dissent, that in the end it is not so bad. And this has happened above all in the big cities, in citizens who are not anti-establishment “.
It is no coincidence that in the last 10 years the real collapse of participation was in the administrative.
“One might think that it is false, that there is more interest in one’s own communities, and instead it is just the opposite: in Italy the average reduction was 15 points, from 70 to 54%, while for European and Political ‘was, but less strong “.
But what is the identikit of those who abstain?
“Different from what is expected. Young people are very interested in politics. And they go to vote.”
Which young people?
“Generation Z, or the so-called post millennials, born at the end of the nineties, have a higher interest than the previous generation. Which is the one that caused the data to collapse in the latest rounds”.
Why do you think?
“The forties, either for the period where there is a lot of focus on family and work, or for the way and times in which they grew up, are more detached from certain issues. So from politics”.
Generation Z beats Millennials on the undermined front of democratic participation?
“Generation Z is more interested in national and international politics, they are concerned with rights, global balances, content. They could be the real protagonists this time”.