Home » Elections Germany 2021: latest polls and possible coalitions – Foreign

Elections Germany 2021: latest polls and possible coalitions – Foreign

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Berlin, September 25, 2021. Without Angela Merkel, the Cdu it has lost that hard core of women and elderly people who for 16 years guaranteed the conservative party to rule Germany. And now, with the federal elections approaching, the center-right is struggling.

Three candidates in the shadow of Merkel

The latest polls

According to the Politico.eu website, which records an average of the polls, the situation as of September 20 is this:

Spd: 25%
Cdu: 22%
Gave: 16%
Php: 11%
Adf: 11%
The left: 6%
All the other parties that have registered (exactly 47) do not exceed the threshold of 5%.

These data, if compared with those of a year ago, make it even better to understand how much the center-right is in difficulty: the conservatives – who are now candidates Armin Laschet – they were at 36%, while the Social Democrats traveled around 15%. The SPD was also behind the Greens, which in September 2020 were at 19%. Afd’s xenophobes and anti-euros were at 10%, while the FDP liberals were trudging to 6%. The far left, on the other hand, was at 8%.

The televised debates

The live confrontation between the leaders of the three main formations (SPD, CDU and Verdi) reinforced the leadership of the Social Democrats. Despite Olaf Scholz, the candidate of the center-left, is considered a bureaucrat unable to warm the spirits (so much so that his nickname is Scholzomat), even in the third and final television debate he was the favorite of the spectators. According to 42% it was he who won the challenge, while his opponents stopped at 27% (Laschet) and 25% (the green Annalena Baerbock).

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Possible coalitions

According to the polls, and how the seats would be distributed, there are many coalitions capable of securing a majority in the Bundestag. In Germany, every coalition has a rather imaginative name, which is based on the color of the parties. However, it should be noted that no party is willing to ally with the Afd and that Die Linke has never been accepted as a partner. This effectively reduces the possibility of forming groups. And there is another factor to take into account: a three-party alliance has never been launched at the federal level.

Big coalition
(51.7% of seats)
Spd and CDU, the two major parties, would join forces to actually continue the experience gained under the fourth Merkel government. The novelty is that the coalition would have reversed roles, with the SPD dictating the line.

Kenya
(68.9% of seats)
The Greens would be added to Spd and CDU. It would be a super majority, with the SPD which, however, would find itself having to mediate between the positions of the two allies. A complex combination that analysts tend to rule out.

Jamaica
(53.2% of seats)
The alliance between CDU, Verdi and Fdp could become viable if the SPD were unable to form a government. A decidedly remote hypothesis.

Stoplight
(57.1% of seats)
The SPD could decide to ally with Verdi and Fdp in order not to have to deal with the CDU. This coalition would exacerbate even more the role of the Social Democrats, who would find themselves having to mediate between the environmentalist demands of the Greens and the pro-business ones of the liberals.

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Black-Red-Yellow
(63.7% of seats)
The liberals of the FDP would join the SPD and the CDU to create a supermajority. Even this option, according to analysts, is less viable than the Grosse Koalition.

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