Elections in France: “If Le Pen wins, earthquake in the EU” – Foreign

To explain what could happen in France and in Europe with the most anticipated presidential elections ever, Yves Mény, political scientist expert on populisms, summarizes it all with a dry and brutal phrase: “A big mess”. But in his analysis there is also space for Thucydides (not surprisingly his latest book, published by Ariel, is Democracy: the Greek political inheritance), Hobbes and the lessons of History. Professor, Marine Le Pen will probably make it to the ballot against Macron and could even pass him in the first round. What effect would her victory have on Europe? “It would be an earthquake. We would go from a supporter of the EU – which puts it at the center of the electoral campaign – to an anti-European sovereignist. its proposals “. Because? “The strategy would be a Frexit without leaving the EU, it wants to limit the movement of people and goods. But to do so it should have control of Parliament and the Constitutional Court. It all depends on the June laws and on possible alliances with what remains. of the Gaullist right. And then the party has few human resources to manage the country, nor leading cadres “. Le Pen has allies everywhere, even in Italy. What would happen in relations between countries? “I foresee very rough sea … There would be a general mistrust towards France, it would risk isolation and find itself allied only with Hungary and Poland. Of course, if Trump or someone like the Texan Ted Cruz returns to the White House, later on we would have a risk “. It’s Italy? “It is true that the League is in government with Draghi and at the same time is allied with Le Pen, but in Italy the positions are increasingly blurred: no party ever has an absolute majority, governments are born by compromise. …