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Premier League relegation battle: Who will stay up?

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Premier League relegation battle: Who will stay up?

Rob Edwards and Nuno Espirito Santo react

Sheffield United and Burnley are 11 points from Premier League safety and look doomed with just 12 matches of the season remaining.

But who else is facing the threat of being relegated to the Championship? And which teams will stay up?

It looks like one from six, with eight points separating 18th-placed Luton and the five teams immediately above them – Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Everton, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.

But it’s complicated…

Both Everton and Forest face anxious waits after being charged in January for alleged breaches in their accounts for 2022-23.

Forest’s case will be heard on Thursday 7 and Friday 8 March.

If they are found to have breached rules they face a points deduction. A verdict is not expected until April and would be subject to appeal.

Any appeal could take that process to 24 May, the week after the season concludes on 19 May.

In November, Everton were immediately docked 10 points for breaking profit and sustainability rules (PSR) in the three-year period to 2021-22.

However, that penalty was reduced to six points after an appeal.

Everton points deduction: BBC Sport’s Simon Stone says story not over yet

Current table

TeamPlayedPointsGDForm (last 5 games)13. Crystal Palace2628-13WLLDW14. Bournemouth2528-14DDLDL15. Everton2625-6DDLDD16. Brentford 2625-11LWLLL17. Nottingham Forest2624-14LDLWL18. Luton Town2520-16WDLLL19. Burnley2613-33LDLLL20. Sheffield United2613-44LLWLL

The run-in

Crystal Palace: 2 March v Tottenham (away); 9 March v Luton (home); 30 March v Nott’m Forest (away); 2 April v Bournemouth (away); 6 April v Man City (home); 14 April v Liverpool (away); 20 April v West Ham (home); 27 April v Fulham (away); 4 May v Man Utd (home); 11 May v Wolves (away); 19 May v Aston Villa (home); TBC v Newcastle (home).

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Bournemouth: 3 March v Burnley (away); 9 March v Sheff Utd (home); 13 March v Luton (home); 16 March v Wolves (away); 30 March v Everton (home); 2 April v Crystal Palace (home); 6 April v Luton (away); 14 April v Man Utd (home); 20 April v Aston Villa (away); 27 April v Brighton (home); 4 May v Arsenal (away); 11 May v Brentford (home); 19 May v Chelsea (away).

Everton: 2 March v West Ham (home); 9 March v Man Utd away); 17 March v Liverpool (home); 30 March v Bournemouth (away); 2 April v Newcastle (away); 6 April v Burnley (home); 15 April v Chelsea (away); 20 April v Nott’m Forest (home); 27 April v Brentford (home); 4 May v Luton (away); 11 May v Sheff Utd (home); 19 May v Arsenal (away).

Brentford: 2 March v Chelsea (home); 9 March v Arsenal (away); 16 March v Burnley (away); 30 March v Man Utd (home); 3 April v Brighton (home); 6 April v Aston Villa (away); 13 April v Sheff Utd (home); 20 April v Luton (away); 27 April v Everton (away); 4 May v Fulham (home); 11 May v Bournemouth (away); 19 May v Newcastle (home).

Nottingham Forest: 2 March v Liverpool (home); 10 March v Brighton (away); 16 March v Luton (away); 30 March v Crystal Palace (home); 2 April v Fulham (home); 8 April v Tottenham (away); 13 April v Wolves (home); 20 April v Everton (away); 27 April v Man City (home); 4 May v Sheff Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).

Luton Town: 2 March v Aston Villa (home); 9 March v Crystal Palace (away); 13 March v Bournemouth (away); 16 March v Nott’m Forest (home); 30 March v Tottenham (away); 3 April v Arsenal (away); 6 April v Bournemouth (home); 13 April v Man City (away); 20 April v Brentford (home); 27 April v Wolves (away); 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).

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Burnley: 3 March v Bournemouth (home); 10 March v West Ham (away); 16 March v Brentford (home); 30 March v Chelsea (away); 2 April v Wolves (home); 6 April v Everton (away); 13 April v Brighton (home); 20 April v Sheff Utd (away); 27 April v Man Utd (away); 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nott’m Forest (home).

Sheffield United: 4 March v Arsenal (home); 9 March v Bournemouth (away); 16 March v Man Utd (away); 30 March v Fulham (home); 4 April v Liverpool (away); 7 April v Chelsea (home); 13 April v Brentford (away); 20 April v Burnley (home); 27 April v Newcastle (away); 4 May v Nott’m Forest (home); 11 May v Everton (away); 19 May v Tottenham (home).

What do the prediction models suggest?

Team % chance of relegationCurrent position & points13. Bournemouth0.8414th – 28 points14. Brentford3.5616th – 25 points15. Crystal Palace4.0313th – 28 points16. Everton4.1315th – 25 points17. Nottingham Forest 19.1817th – 24 points18. Luton Town 69.3218th – 20 points19. Burnley 99.2419th – 13 points20. Sheffield United 99.5820th – 13 points

Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and their own Opta team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances. These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.

Team and predicted points in brackets% chance of relegationCurrent position & points13. Bournemouth (44)114th – 28 points14. Crystal Palace (40)313th – 28 points15. Everton (40)315th – 25 points16. Brentford (40)416th – 25 points17. Nottingham Forest (37)1317th – 24 points18. Luton Town (30)7718th – 20 points19. Burnley (23)9919th – 13 points20. Sheffield United (21)99.720th – 13 points

Data specialists Nielsen’s Gracenote has calculated a percentage chance of relegation for each team, based on their remaining fixtures.

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