We always return to the scene of the crime, an English and an Italian team, as in 2005, at the Ataturk Olympic stadium, Milan-Liverpool, and it doesn’t necessarily have to be the same way. Back then the favorite was Milan, and Liverpool won with a crazy comeback. Now the big favorite is Manchester City and who knows it won’t happen again. To tell the truth, Tiscali he has bet on Inter since unsuspected times, even since October, arguing that by passing his iron group he could reach the final. And since after the quarterfinals, since the challenge with the i Citizensthe celestials of the Blue Moon, Blue Moonas in the song by Ella Fitzgerald, without a love of my own, without a love of our own, we’ve been arguing ever since that if we had a euro to bet, we’d bet it on Inter. Also because at least you win something. More than seven times the post. Manchester is given at 1.25, which is almost nothing. The nerazzurri before Guardiola asphalted Real Madrid, four pappine to zero, they were four, then we see that given that match the coefficient of difficulty has increased. Now let’s be clear, ours is not a prediction. Those are made by haruspices of various kinds, and we prefer to leave them to them, to the fortune tellers. Ours is a reasoning, an analysis, call it what you want. Which starts from a fundamental assumption.
In football, the weakest can win
. Football is not a sport. Football is a game. It’s a game that has a sporting component, because only athletes can play it and athletes need to be trained, you need to have breath and legs and you need to run a lot. If you get it wrong, you’re screwed. But all other things being equal, sport no longer matters. Football it is a show where the weakest can win and this happens many timesfor various incidences, which can range from chance, the lucky boxes drawn with the dice in Monopoly, to well-chosen moves such as in a game of poker or risk, from tactical knowledge to arbitration decisions, or to his small mistakes, almost invisible, but determinants. In the two finals held so far, the strongest or who deserved more has never won. The underdogs, Sevilla and West Ham, have won on both occasions because the rules of the game allow them to. Football is built on absurd conceptions, such as that of offside, and fundamentally unsportsmanlike rules which do not punish disloyalty and any form of obstructionism, but reward cunning, cynicism, just as is done in a game, not in a sport. It would have been enough for Igor to mow down Bowen, that is, to assume a behavior not suited to the sport but to the game, for Fiorentina not to lose the Conference. If it were a sport we would have no doubts, and it would be incompetent to have any.
Manchester City is in another category
Il Manchester City is not only stronger, it is in another category than Inter. But it’s a game and then other factors count. As far as the athletic aspect is concerned, the Nerazzurri will be at this event in top form. Inzaghi is an Emilian with his feet firmly planted on the ground, and it has been since he coached the Lazio Spring that he has built himself by forging himself in challenges from inside or outside. That’s his specialty: you have to arrive in perfect condition and know how to do the two things you need well, defend yourself with your teeth and have ideas for attacking. Important distinctions are: Inzaghi does not obstruct, the typical Italian bolt to prevent others from playing, but defends itself in strength to always hit the aggressor. And when they have to attack, then, his teams don’t have a single register, but know how to dribble and create more offensive options. In front they will have Guardiola’s boys, a formation that has dominated the Premier League, with a very enveloping possession of the ball which involves all the players on the field during the various phases, with a three-man midfield, well staggered in its elements, from the midfielder Rodri, above all physically strong, to the attacking midfielder De Bruyne and the incursor Gundogan. He has practically four power plants behind him and only Walker is often called upon to build the action. Up front, with Grealish and Foden, dribbling is a solution attempted with a certain insistence to overcome the opponents’ defense line and bring crosses in search of Haaland or Gundogan. Manchester City is by far the team with the greatest technique in Europe.
Inter is a chameleon team
So why should Inter ever make it? First annotation: i Citizens on their way to the Champions League they always have obtained overwhelming results at home, without ever shining away where they mostly picked up draws. On the contrary, Inter built their successes away from the friendly walls, with completely different performances from each other, from the sparkling 3-3 in Barcelona to zero-zero in the trenches in Porto. This because Inzaghi manages to adapt perfectly to his opponent in this kind of match and at the specific time of the meeting. Neutral ground is certainly not a home match. Inter is a chameleon team that is more comfortable against those who have the vocation to lead the game. Said more explicitly: he plays better if he has to face Manchester City rather than Allegri’s renouncing Juventus.
Pep Guardiola has only one game plan
If we were Inzaghi we would be happy to be facing Guardiola and not Ancelotti. Pep has only one scheme and the game variations are still contemplated within this system set. Ancelotti is unpredictable, and he’s too smart: that’s why he won so much. Guardiola you can cheat him, Carletto no. The referee will be Marciniak, the Polish referee caught at a far-right party with clear racist and anti-Semitic connotations, but saved by Ceferin after he said he’s not a racist. Then why does he go to a place where everyone is? In any case, it’s good news for Inter: Marciniak directed them twice, in Barcelona and Porto, and the Nerazzurri certainly didn’t have anything to complain about. And honestly, after the two clearly anti-Italian arbitrations in Budapest and Prague, it seems really impossible for UEFA to be able to repeat another one with the risk of starting a scandal. On this front, Inzaghi would do well not to get too scared. And the rest as well. Without being serene, because those who were serene have already gone to the Pizzuti trees, as they say in Rome. But confident yes. This is why we would bet that euro on him.