The odds on the Hill of English bettors
But for the bookmaker Englishman Ladbrokes remains the premier favorite Mario Draghi, proposed at 1.50. Behind Berlusconi, the confirmation of Sergio Mattarella, with the Minister of Justice, is played at 9 March Cartabia offer to 11. It is worth 15 times the stake instead Pier Ferdinando Casini, while the President of the Senate rises to 17, Maria Elisabetta Casellati. The European Commissioner for Economic Affairs is more delayed, Paolo Gentiloni a 26 e l’ex premier Giuliano Amato, last at 51 “.
Then, in a few days, here is the turning point: Berlusconi’s quotations, on the verge of the definitive step back to horas due to the failure of the ‘squirrel’ operation, collapse vertically to the ground.
The shares of the Cavaliere collapse, Casellati rooms
The rest, Matteo Salvini admitted the existence of a plan B if the Knight’s ‘squirrel’ operation does not seem to lead to his election: the clues now lead to Elisabetta Casellati, which makes a leap forward in the odds of international bookmakers, who now place it in second position behind the favorite, Mario Draghi. The current prime minister is confirmed at 1.73 out Ladbrokes, with the President of the Senate chasing at 8 (from 17 last week). Same fee for a second term of Sergio Mattarella, with the Minister of Justice Marta Cartabia who is worth 11 as Berlusconi. It rises to 13 for the vice president of the Constitutional Court, Giuliano Amato; same share for Pier Ferdinando Casini, with the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni who slips to the last place on the blackboard to 15. These are the market shares.
It must be said that if, on the one hand, the bettors, however “sgamati”, they do not always get it right, some of the names that run in the “betting round”, such as that of Paolo Gentiloni, they have never even “entered the game” in this Colle race, it is also true, on the other hand, that bookmakers smell the air. Is that Silvio Berlusconi want to “launch”, in the race to the Colle, is no longer a secret for anyone, even if the formalization of his candidacy is still missing.
Will Berlusconi play his cards? Then it’s dark
Berlusconi, therefore, but only from the fourth ballot onwards. As we know, in fact, in the first three ballots, you have to ‘compete’ and measure yourself against a very high quorum (673 votes out of 1009 electors) and no candidate really thinks he can do it.
From the fourth ballot onwards, on the other hand, the quorum is significantly lowered and, while remaining considerable, falls to 505 votes, the absolute majority. And this is where Berlusconi he wants to compete with the company and is trying to draw as many votes as possible both in the Mixed group and in the various centrist groups. The center-right starts with 451 votes and the center-left with 414 electors, while the centrists have about fifty, all included, and the Mixed groups they add up to the astronomical figure of 113 members. In short, if neither of the two sides is able to vote for the Head of State alone, the help of the Mixed group is essential.
But what could happen if, instead, on the fourth ballot, Berlusconi’s candidacy were sunk by internal and external ‘snipers’? At that point the chances of ‘bipartisan’ candidates would rise (Amato, favored by the dem left, but opposed by the center-right, and Casini, the pectore name of Renzi and many other centrists) or, if the center-right still had the strength, and numbers, to establish itself, would launch one of the names, kept covered for now, that Salvini and Meloni have in mind (Letizia Moratti, Franco Frattini, Marcella Pera), trying to win the challenge alone, or rather by grabbing the votes of the centrists and leaving the center-left with the difficult decision to agree to their name or to abstain from voting. Center left who, faced with the name Berlusconi, contemplates climbing the Aventine, deserting the vote.
Possible solutions: Draghi or Mattarella bis
Finally, if Salvini and Letta, but also the Meloni – and obviously, Renzi – were able to come to an agreement, the major parties could, at the fifth or sixth or seventh vote, converge on Mario Draghi or ask Mattarella for an encore, even if this last card appears, to date, more the ‘card of despair’ than a real chance while the possibility of sending Draghi to the Hill clashes with the ‘Great Fear’ of the pawns of a void, at the head of the government, which would be filled with difficulty and would seriously jeopardize the duration of the legislature.
Excluding names that have also been around for months (Casellati and Cartabia, as women, on the one hand, Pera or Tremonti, as they are too branded on the right, on the other side) it is difficult for them to come out surprises of the last hour or that the names that pieces of former M5s want to launch can do it (Liliana Segre, Silvana Sciarra, Sabino Cassese).
In short, if Berlusconi fails the objective, as is very likely, it will remain for Parliament to converge on Dragons or on a Mattarella bis. It is on these two names that attention is focused, regardless of what the bookmakers say …