Original title: Chen Feng: The United States really cares about the national power struggle behind the Olympic gold medal list
[文/观察者网专栏作者 晨枫]
One year after the Tokyo Olympics was postponed, it was finally held in a staggering way. This is a unique Olympic Games in the history of the Olympics. Amid the strong opposition from the public and the surge of new crown cases in Japan, the cabinet of Yoshihide Suga insisted on holding it and canceled the audience. It is hard to say whether this is in line with the Olympic spirit of peace, unity and sharing. This is also difficult to ride a tiger. Japan has already invested a lot in the early stage. In addition to war, the cancellation of the Olympics is unique in history. Japan is even more hopeful that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (actually 2021), like the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, will once again boost the Japanese economy and return to healthy growth. the way.
Japan in 1964 was a vibrant Japan. The ruins after the war have been basically cleaned up, and the economic machinery has begun to roar after being pulled by the Korean War. Old and new companies such as Toyota, Sony, and Nikon represent the economic outlook of the new Japan. They have begun to win world recognition and become an export-oriented Japanese economy. The vanguard. Politically, resolutely holding on to the thigh of the United States has also brought substantial political dividends. The 1964 Tokyo Olympics, like the rich lady of the old days, first appeared in a social dance party, showing the world a brand new Japan, and pushing Japan on the fast track of development.
Japan in 2020 is a dull Japan. Economic strengths have retreated from mainstream areas to niche areas, and even traditional strengths such as automobiles have been squeezed out of breath in the tide of new energy. Whether the 2020 Tokyo Olympics can once again bring Japan into the fast lane is still not a final conclusion, at least there are no positive signs for now, but the approval rate of the Yoshihide Suga government has fallen horribly.
But from the perspective of national strength, the biggest highlight of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is the gold medal competition between China and the United States.
On the medal list, the United States overtook China on the last day and regained the top spot in the gold medal list with a small gap of 39:38. However, during the entire Olympics, China has basically been leading, and even in the traditional strengths of the United States swimming, track and field competitions have also gained a lot.
In the 2020 Tokyo Olympic gold medal list, some people count Hong Kong and Taiwan as China’s gold medals. This is of course possible, but it does not conform to the IOC’s algorithm. The IOC’s results are calculated based on the participating teams.
The United States is the only superpower in the world, and China has long passed the era when it needed a gold medal to win self-confidence, but in the whole process, everyone will still link the Olympic gold medal with national strength.
Ranking of Olympic gold medals in various countries in history
The United States is a traditional superpower in the history of the Olympics. Except for the 2008 Beijing Olympics, where the Chinese team won the first place with the east wind of the host country, the US team has always been at the top of the gold medal list. Another already dilapidated superpower, the Soviet Union/Russia team, used to be the second in the millennium. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, this inertia has been maintained for 10 years. After that, it went from bad to worse, but the momentum of the fall seemed to be stopped. At the Tokyo Olympics, the Russian Olympic Committee (because of suspected banned drugs in the name of Russia, only in the name of the Russian Olympic Committee) won 20 gold medals and 71 medals. In contrast, the 2012 London Olympics won 20 gold medals and 68 medals; the 2016 Rio Olympics won 19 gold medals and 56 medals. It should be pointed out that over the years, Olympic events have continued to increase, and medals have been a bit inflationary. However, the gold content of medals is comparable in terms of traditional events as the “constant currency value”. The Russian team’s performance in the freshman project was mediocre, most of which are famous in Europe and the United States. Regardless of these factors, the general trend of Russian medals is positively correlated with the general trend of national power.
But the United States is different. The United States has not only maintained the number one Olympic gold medal list all year round, it is also the absolute hegemon of accumulated gold medals in history.
The cumulative number of Olympic gold, silver and bronze medals in various countries in history
Judging from the cumulative number of Olympic medals in history, the United States ranks as high as 1,063, significantly surpassing the Soviet Union. According to the rules of the International Olympic Committee, the Soviet Union and Russia are calculated separately. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the total number of gold medals in each Olympic Games in Russia was 149, plus 20 from the Russian Olympic Committee, and 45 from the former Soviet Union in the 1992 Barcelona Olympics. The cumulative total (even when it joined Tsarist Russia) was only 610. This is largely consistent with the reality and trend of the Soviet Union/Russia’s national power. The United Kingdom ranks third with 284 gold medals, but many of them are early years. The same is true of old European countries such as France and Germany (except for the special period in East Germany), which is consistent with the status of the former great powers.
China ranked fourth with 262 gold medals. If nothing else, after the next few Olympics, China will have more gold medals than the United Kingdom, and there is still a long way to go to catch up with the United States. However, it must be noted that if it is not the Republic of China era, China’s Olympic history only began in 1984.
The Olympic Games started in ancient Greece. Different from general perception, this is not a sports competition in modern concepts, but a “national power” competition between the Greek city-states. Greek mythology is not a religion in the modern sense, but it played a religious role in ancient Greece. Greek mythology is polytheistic, with different divisions of labor, but each has magical powers, and no one can overwhelm each other. For example, in the Trojan War, the goddess of love Aphrodite helped the Trojans fight, and the goddess of wisdom Athena helped the Achaeans fight. They were not professional, but they were full of military virtues. In Greek mythology, this god helps people in this place fight against people in that place supported by that god, which is a mythological reality of ancient Greece. But after all, the war is laboring for the people and money, and the country will be ruined if the game is too big. Therefore, the people of the city-states made an appointment to show whose gods are more powerful in Olympia. This is the origin of the original Olympics.
In the ancient Olympics, people were not competing, but people representing the gods. Therefore, the city-states ceased fighting during the competition. The competition was full of ritual and there was a set of competition rules. This is a special form of memorial service, so the winner will bring a corolla made of olive branches, which is the origin of peace on behalf of olive branches. The images of the winners are also carved into statues, because they are the incarnations of gods in the world. Cheating is the greatest blasphemy against God and requires the most severe punishment.
The modern Olympics was initiated by the Frenchman Coubertin and used to promote world peace and national exchanges. The modern Olympic spirit advocates participation first and victory second, but the Olympics have always been linked to national power. Even now, when the Olympic teams enter the stadium, they first report in French. This is not only a tribute to Coubertin, but also because France was one of the great powers at the end of the 19th century initiated by the modern Olympics. Then in English, because this is the era of “the sun never sets the empire”. Last is the language of the host country, if it is not English or French.
You can’t just be gold medalist, just like you can’t just GDP. But the gold medal is important, just as GDP is important. The gold medal reflects the hard work and skills of the sports elite, and to a certain extent, reflects the national strength behind it.
China and the United States medals in previous Olympics since 1996
The trend of the number of gold medals in the Olympic Games between China and the United States since 1996
The trend of the number of medals in the Olympic Games between China and the United States since 1996
It is not difficult to see that the total number of gold medals and medals in the United States has been relatively stable. Even if the number of gold medals in China is not counted as the “host country dividend” of the Beijing Olympics, it has been rising steadily. But if the question in the past few years (except for the Beijing Olympics) has always been “Can China have more gold medals than the United States“, in the Tokyo Olympics, it has become “Can the United States still catch up with China in gold medals?” In addition to a few unfortunate but excusable gold medal losses, the Chinese team has a lot of unexpected gains. The US team also lost a lot of accidents. But these accidents do not change the general trend: China’s gold medal count is steadily catching up with the United States, sitting steadily and constantly narrowing the gap. Like the Rio Olympics, the British gold medal number slightly surpassing China’s situation will only be an exception.
China’s Olympic gold medal journey started from relatively unpopular shooting and small balls, and gradually shifted to more skill and graceful gymnastics and diving. Now it is also emerging in swimming, track and field that require a perfect combination of strength and skills. This is the comprehensive development of China’s sports. A symbol of globalization and equalization.
The US sports superpower is based on hard-core sports such as swimming and track and field, but the Tokyo Olympics showed the decline of US strengths. Swimming and athletics won a total of 18 gold medals and 56 medals, accounting for 46% and 50% of the total in the United States, respectively. The 11 gold medals in swimming are the lowest since Barcelona; there are only 7 gold medals in track and field, including only 2 in men’s track and field, which are the lowest records in the history of the United States Olympic Games. There was not a single gold medal in the men’s track, this is the first time in history. The total number of men’s track and field medals is only 10, another historical low.
China’s strengths are still concentrated in diving, shooting, weightlifting, gymnastics, table tennis and other events. In these events, it has won 25 gold medals and 46 medals, accounting for 66% and 52% of China’s total respectively. The 12 medals for diving and 11 medals for shooting set the highest record in Chinese Olympic history. Weightlifting is even more outstanding, 7 gold medals, 1 silver medal, 8 players participated in the competition, all won medals. Table tennis also has the best record since Sydney (4 gold and 3 silver). There are 2 golds, 2 silvers and 1 bronze for track and field, and 3 golds, 2 silvers and 1 bronze for swimming.
This is very similar to the course of China’s rise. The “zero breakthrough” of China’s Olympic gold medal appeared in 1984, when Xu Haifeng won the first Olympic gold medal in Chinese history. This is also the early stage of China’s reform and opening up, lack of industrial foundation, agriculture is in the stage of small-scale peasant economy, domestic market lacks consumption power, and economic development is mainly driven by foreign trade. From exporting whatever can be sold, to consciously creating labor-intensive industries with low entry barriers and avoiding the advanced economic strengths of Europe and the United States, China has found its first pot of gold. It will gradually expand in the future, until now it has defeated the low-end manufacturing in Europe and the United States, and entered the stage of hand-to-hand combat in the high-end manufacturing industry. Reflected in the Olympics, China’s gold medals have shifted from “marginal” and “niche” events to hard-core events such as track and field and swimming, directly fighting the world‘s most advanced level.
This is also the process of modernizing China’s economic structure. There was a time when the representatives of central enterprises were bloated and backward. Although private enterprises were capable, they were concentrated in low-tech fields. Now many central enterprises have reached the world‘s advanced level in terms of scale, technology and efficiency, and private enterprises have also developed from small to large, from low-tech to high-tech in a full spectrum. Reflected in sports, China’s gold medal no longer relies on “partial skills”, but is based on a wider range of physical abilities and skills, and competes for the world‘s first place in the whole spectrum from niche projects to hard-core projects.
Every four years in the Olympics, China and the United States will still hold tightly and alternately lead for a period of time. The total number of medals in China will also catch up with the United States, and then alternately lead for a period of time. This is almost parallel to the competition for national strength. The Olympic gold medals are not piled up by a nationwide system or by throwing money. This is the same reason as the development of economy and science and technology. The growth of grass seedlings depends on sunlight, rain, dew, soil, seeds, and fertilizers. When compared to sports, it means national attention, competitions, popularization, talents and facilities. When compared to economic and technological development, it means policy, demand, and supply chain (including talents and materials). , Growth point, investment, only if these are balanced development, can it be sustainable.
These elements are also interactive, and only after the inflection point is the positive interaction. China has passed the turning point. What is needed is no longer high-speed development, but high-quality, sustainable development. China has passed the time when it needs gold medals or GDP figures to condense and inspire people’s hearts. China’s development no longer relies on high jumps, or even sprints, but triathlons. Our goal is the stars and the sea.
Therefore, when Lang Ping lost to Japan in the Bangkok Asian Games, he was called “the imperfect Beijing No. 4”, but when the Tokyo Olympics apologized and retired, people encouraged “Lang Ping does not owe us an apology” and “The women’s volleyball team needs you.” “. Seventeen years after Liu Xiang was scolded for retiring due to injury, people were saying, “We owe Liu Xiang an apology.”
Now, Su Bingtian is only sixth in the 100 meters. He is the first man in Asia to break the 10-second mark, but he can’t even reach the top three. Between 1968 and 2008, 67 people broke the 10-second mark in the world; from 2009 to now, 87 people broke the 10-second mark. But the Chinese are hitting the world’s top challenges, and this is the most important. This is not about “participation,” but a real impact. The same goes for the men’s 4×100 competition.
This is the same as China’s industry and technology. China still has shortcomings. Chips and aero engines are just well-known examples. But China is already hitting these top challenges in the world. It is not just about “participating”, but actually hitting them. In the era of “zero breakthrough” for China’s Olympic gold medals, China is actually “not qualified” to attack these hardcore projects.
According to reports, China Aerospace uses wind tunnels and advanced testing methods to help athletes analyze and optimize their movements in windsurfing, swimming, boating and other events. This can only be done after China’s high-level development of science and technology. You know, the US team has long adopted such high technology.
But the outside world‘s perception of China has lagged behind the situation, and the Olympic gold medal is the same. Before the Olympics, someone will always predict the medals. Any prediction relies half on historical data and half on subjective judgment, so it always represents the cognition of the predictor (or institution) to a certain extent. Before the Tokyo Olympics, the more authoritative Gracenote company predicted that the United States ranked first in the number of gold medals and medals; China ranked second in the number of gold medals and third in the number of medals; Russia ranked third in the number of gold medals and second in the number of medals.
Before the Tokyo Olympics, Gracenote’s prediction of Olympic medals
It cannot be said that this is a baseless guess, but it is far from the truth. The number of gold medals in the United States is overestimated by one, and the number of gold medals in China is underestimated by five. Such a miscalculation may reflect the overall perception of the relative strength of China and the United States in the West, and is not a simple prediction error.
Women’s Project
What’s interesting is that many people are not satisfied with China’s gold medal “Yin is prosperous and Yang is declining.” This can be a spur to men’s sports, or there may be patriarchal thinking at work. The fact is that compared with the US team, the percentage of gold medals in women’s events in the Tokyo Olympics is almost the same between the Chinese team and the US team. US women’s gold medals accounted for 58.97% of the total number of gold medals and China’s 57.89%. The US team is even more “yin and waning” in terms of the total number of medals. One point, women’s medals accounted for 58.41% of the total, China’s 53.41%.
“Yin and Yang decay” is not uncommon among the “Gold Medal Powers” of the Tokyo Olympics. New Zealand’s women’s gold medal accounted for 85.71%, Canada 71.42%, Japan and Australia also exceeded 50%, and Russia, the Netherlands, and Germany exceeded 40%.
The number of women’s gold medals is not so good that it can be directly compared with the economy, and it can only be said to represent women’s social status. In other words, the social status of Chinese women is at least not lower than that of European and American countries that pride themselves on feminism. Compared with women’s social status in developed countries, which is more reflected in women’s politics, Chinese women are more prominent in hard-core positions such as technology and business, which can be reflected in the many female chief designers of China Aerospace. There are also countless women in military, heavy industry, electronics, and information industries. The liberation of women is not only to liberate women from the family, but also to unlock the ingenuity that was once locked in this half of the population.
The most Olympic gold medalists
However, judging from the history of the largest number of Olympic gold medalists, European and American players still account for the overwhelming majority. This is related to the longer history of development in Europe and the United States, and it is also consistent with the top technology companies in the economic world dominated by Europe and the United States.
The Olympic gold medal cannot be directly linked to national strength, but it still has a considerable degree of relevance. From the Olympic gold medals, we can see how China and the United States have each other. Otherwise, the “New York Times” would not bother to change the “all-time” gold medal list into a medal list, until the last day when the United States finally caught up with and surpassed China by a gold medal, then quietly changed back to the gold medal list. What’s interesting is that European countries (including the United Kingdom, a loyal follower of the United States) still use the gold medal list and have not followed the United States. This is a trivial matter, but it is also a matter of seeing the big in the small.
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