“The defection of Anatoly Chubais is the umpteenth demonstration of this. Those in Russia who have a more liberal orientation know they have no tools to oppose. And he therefore has two possibilities: either he silently accepts everything that happens and is imposed, or he runs away. “According to Mara Morini, professor of political science at the University of Genoa and a profound connoisseur of Russian political dynamics, it is still too early to talk about creaks in the circle around Vladimir Putin.
The tsar had directly entrusted the post of special envoy for the climate to Chubais. What is the meaning of the farewell of an official who has been at the top of the Kremlin for twenty years?
“I would not define Chubais as a loyalist of Putin. He was a great protagonist of the 90s for the role of reformist and liberal, one of the closest to the West, together with Boris Nemcov, who was later assassinated. Both played a decisive role in democratization. Russian. Nemcov remained in the opposition, Chubais wanted to follow Putin as a matter of political survival. But he is not part of the inner circle, of the apparatus. Therefore, I would not interpret his farewell as a crack. “
But Chubais still had an important job.
“He dealt with relations with international organizations and his role would no longer have made sense, because Putin wants to close with the West. He should keep a window open only from a commercial point of view. I would see a sign of a split in the circle if there was an escape of characters from the army or the security agency “.
So no rifts around Putin?
“There was discontent at the beginning, especially in the foreign ministry. But then there was a realignment. Putin immediately purged, censored, replaced, also strengthening the part of those who had objections”.
One solution to end the war is thought to be a coup in the Kremlin.
“I do not think in the short term, but it cannot be ruled out later on. Not until the end of the year, based on the progress of the military front. It is then difficult to find a person who has the courage to organize a coup, because it could to find oneself alone without an anti-Putinian coalition. Putin is well organized also for his security. It is difficult to reach him and kill him. I do not think a coup is a solution to the conflict, but a consequence “.
In his book ‘Putin’s Russia’ he talks about a country little known in its internal dynamics. What do we know now?
“Putin’s vision is not guided by paranoia, but rational and lucid, based on elements that are not difficult to understand. A path in the wake of the Russian tradition that recalls the desire to restore Russia to being a great power after the humiliation of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Not only an economic and political rise, but a new positioning at the international level. Putin wants to be recognized as an equal partner to the other greats “.
We saw the rally at the stadium with thousands of Russians applauding Putin. Propaganda or reality?
“A lot of propaganda because what we have seen happens every year, reunification is celebrated on March 18. It is a way to show public opinion that he is in control of the situation, to the outside eyes he shows consent towards him”.
How far do you want to go? Does he want to take over all of Ukraine or is he ready to stop if Kiev accepts the conditions imposed by Moscow?
“It is clear that Putin, if we take him at his word, is not interested in moving the famous red line to the West a little. it will be negotiating for a minimum objective. Donbass annexation and Ukrainian neutrality are minimum criteria. Otherwise he would lose face and not only abroad. He would not know how to justify ‘denazification’ “.