what is the alliance of former USSR buffer states in Putin’s (and Biden’s) sights? The Orb case

War Ukraine, the former Soviet Union or former Warsaw Pact buffer states have been walking a razor’s edge for a year, ever since Putin’s aggression in Kiev overwhelmed the fragile balance between the veteran nations of the European Union, the latest arrivals or those about to join the EU and, on the opposite side, the increasingly expansionist regime of Russia. It is no coincidence that the B9, the alliance between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, was born in Bucharest following the annexation of Crimea by Putin in 2014: just look at the map to understand its geopolitical importance, with that deployment that goes continuously from the Black Sea to the northern Baltic Sea. A bulwark to all things East.

But now the B9 really finds itself in the midst of more than one scenario. There is not only the daily question that has been precipitating for a year, namely the reception of Ukrainian refugees and the logistics of transport which must facilitate the transit of aid, including war aid, from the Western world to Ukraine. There is not only the fear that after the Crimea and after the Donbass, if not the whole of Ukraine, Russia intends to expand further. There is also the need to redefine relations with the European Union which is wavering on many fronts, while American pragmatism has no hesitation and never misses an opportunity to guarantee its support for the B9.

The Bucharest alliance 9

A strategy that according to some observers aims to strengthen US influence over Europe which this year has had to rethink its role in NATO.

In recent days, during his trip to Kiev and Warsaw, Biden wanted to set up a meeting which was also attended by the general secretary Jens Stoltenberg, a less historic moment than the one with Zelensky in Kiev and less symbolic than the speech from the Warsaw Castle, but no less significant. Also recalling that the year before the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the United States had already strengthened the missile positions (the “shield”) of Poland and Romania.

The support of the B9

“You are on the front lines of the battle for our collective security. And you know better than anyone what is at stake in this conflict, not only for Ukraine but for the freedom of democracies in Europe and in the world,” the American president said speaking to the leaders of the Bucharest-9 group. “In one of the last conversations I had with our friend in Russia I warned him that instead of getting the ‘Finlandisation of NATO’, as he was asking for, he would get Finland into the Alliance. It happened and we are stronger than before. Today, one year after Russia’s invasion, it is even more important to remain united”, underlined Biden, promising the leaders of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia that the United States “They will defend every inch of their territory.

The Transcarpathian knot

However, undermining the alliance is Hungary for the node of Transcarpathia (Carpathian Ruthenia, formerly of Hungary) and western Ukrainian oblasts. Hungarian leader Orban, who did not want to meet Biden the day before yesterday, uses this argument to justify his coldness with Kiev, accusing it of not protecting the Hungarian minority. In reality he defends relations with Moscow with which he has entered into agreements above all on energy supplies which it would not be easy for him to replace as many other European countries have done. Thus Hungary is weakening NATO’s strategy by not having agreed to let western weapons destined for Ukraine transit through its territory.

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