That TikTok has something revolutionary has been clear for years. But how specifically will his success change how we use social media in the medium term? With his Big Technology newsletter, Alex Kantrowitz has specialized in the really big tech companies and tries to put them in a compact format. First, he makes it clear: It is not TikTok that is revolutionary, but its AI-based algorithm. It doesn’t need a list of accounts or “friends” that someone follows, but simply gives people more and more of what they like and what’s going viral at the moment. The follower model, which made the Meta apps great, is being replaced:
„we’re in a testing-out phase for AI-based recommendations. Every app is unleashing its algorithm on (effectively) the same pool of content, and a winner will eventually emerge. A marginally better app will attract more users, which will give it more data to make its feed better, which will attract more creators to pump it with content, which will open its lead. It’s a flywheel. And eventually, the lesser apps will get worse and fall off.“
Kantrowitz identifies four consequences of this development:
1. The homogenization of all social media apps could lead to one app surpassing all others and becoming the mega app for all walks of life (a kind of western Wechat).
2. A ban on TikTok could come – and would be possible with less blatant effects on users. Precisely because TikTok doesn’t let them form social ties that a ban could destroy.
3. If all content becomes the same – for example because the entire ecosystem is tailored to upright videos – more advertising money comes into the system.
4. Top creators become more powerful, they can play off different apps against each other.