Video interview with Domenico Fucigna, founder and research manager of TEA Trends and university professor
The forecasting methodologies are many and constantly evolving, since the first post-war period. There are also numerous cases of application in areas such as sustainability, geopolitics and economic and technological development. However, scenario planning work does not always find a subsequent development, that of strategic planning and implementation of the strategy, which is equally effective. We talked about it with Domenico Fucigna, Founder and Research Manager of TEA Trends and University Professor.
The theme of the different strategic forecasting methodologies was the subject of the first considerations with Domenico, in fact there are two main strands of ‘strategic forecast‘: The predominantly qualitative, foresight approachesand those quantitative, forecasting; projected on the long term in a context devoid of structured information, the former; oriented to the short-medium term with a focus on the projection of measurable historical patterns, the latter. Both are useful to directing corporate innovation processesin the case of foresight we find a particular effectiveness in contexts characterized by uncertainty and complexitysuch as today’s geopolitical, economic-financial and ecological one.
On closer inspection, as Domenico recounts, particularly elaborate scenarios were already created in the 1970s. The case of the ‘Limits to Growth report‘ commissioned from MIT by the Club of Rome, a non-governmental, non-profit association of scientists, economists, businessmen and women, civil rights activists, senior international public officials and heads of state. A set of forecasts which, in the climatic and ecological fields, proved to be close to reality, but which, at the time, did not obtain credibility and concrete practical consequences in terms of planning and action.
Even today, scenario planning is used by Policy Makers on the same topics, also with dedicated teams such as the Task Force on strategic foresight of the European Commission, in this case the scenario activity supported the planning of the European Agenda 2030 and previously of the Agenda 2020. Ambitious and virtuous agreements and objectives that are proving to be difficult to implement, an emblematic phenomenon ofcentral importance of the ability to implement foresight processes.
The ability to apply the strategic directions, which emerge from the risks and opportunities of the scenarios, in a pragmatic and effective way, is one of the major difficulties for a real effectiveness of the strategic forecasting work.
At the basis of this difficulty, emerges from the dialogue with Domenico, there are two sets of reasons, a first linked to an effective incapacity to manage the implementation of strategies, and a second more intrinsically linked to the nature of the political and economic systems that we are created, often resistant to change.