[NTDTV, Beijing time, March 27, 2022]Hello, everyone, welcome to “News Story”, I’m Daewoo. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been going on for a month and there is still no clear end to it, with satellite images showing Russian troops building defensive positions and appearing to be preparing for a prolonged battle around Kyiv. Whether the Chinese Communist Party will invade Taiwan has also become a news focus.
Today’s focus: Both sides of the strait may be preparing for a “long war”! The CIA and the U.S. Indo-Pacific commander paid close attention to the CCP’s response after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, which actually increased military spending; U.S. officials privately summed up Ukraine’s greatest experience, which is worthy of reference for Taiwan; the Communist army’s attack on Taiwan has a major drawback, and Taiwan’s defense has two major advantages.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSy-OjIZ0YA
[After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the CIA and the Indo-Pacific commander paid close attention to the CCP’s response]
On March 9, an intelligence analyst from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) wrote: “At least, Xi Jinping was thinking about taking over Taiwan this fall, and he needs his own small victory to win a third term. This fall , the CCP will hold its 20th National Congress.” This information cannot be confirmed by the outside world. But against the backdrop of Beijing’s insistent pursuit of cross-strait reunification, there are fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could prompt China to launch a similar move.
Some netizens frequently use a phrase when discussing the war between Russia and Ukraine: “Today’s Ukraine, tomorrow’s Taiwan.” A survey by Japan’s Kyodo News Agency shows that three-quarters of Japanese are worried that the CCP will use force against Taiwan, or against Taiwan. Disputed islands in the East China Sea take military action.
The U.S. Congress has held several hearings asking military leaders and intelligence officials to dissect how Russia’s war of invading Ukraine might influence the thinking of top Chinese officials to attack Taiwan.
At the March 8 hearing, CIA Director William Burns said: “The Chinese authorities are surprised and disturbed by what they have seen in Ukraine over the past 12 days, and they have seen the strength of the Western response. , saw the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians, and the relatively poor performance of Russia. Still, Burns said he would not underestimate the intentions of Xi Jinping and Chinese Communist Party leaders on Taiwan.
U.S. officials say the morale of the Russian military has been severely dampened by the fact that Ukrainian resistance has been stronger than expected and the Russian military’s own logistical support is not in place, with insufficient fuel and food supplies.
At the same time, Russia’s economy is in trouble after harsh sanctions imposed by the West and the withdrawal of major international companies from Russia. The Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that as many as 4,000 Russians may have died in the first two weeks of the war.
At a March 10 hearing, John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said the death toll was a lesson Beijing should have learned from the Russia-Ukraine war. He said the high death rate from waging an illegal war would trouble Putin and Xi. He added that China should also take note of the widespread international condemnation of Russia and the “significant economic impact that the free world can have.”
Aquilino’s predecessor, General Philip Davidson, predicted last year that China could try to invade Taiwan within six years. Aquirino did not explicitly endorse the timetable, but noted during the hearing that Xi has told his military to “complete modernization” by 2027.
Aquirino cited some of Beijing’s actions, such as the crackdown on Hong Kong, the oath of sovereignty in the disputed area of the South China Sea, and skirmishes with Indian troops. “These actions by Beijing worry me that the timetable for attacking Taiwan is shrinking, and my task is to prepare for that,” he said.
For the U.S. military, he said, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “real wake-up call” to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, including by investing more troops and ships in the Asia-Pacific region.
Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier emphasized that Taiwan and Ukraine are “different events,” in part because of different U.S. military postures in Europe and the Pacific, but told the House Intelligence Committee, China is watching the Ukrainian war “very, very carefully”.
CIA Director Burns also said at the hearing that Xi was disturbed by what he saw in the wake of the Russian attack on Ukraine, in part because China’s intelligence services did not appear to be telling Xi what was going to happen.
Two weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi Jinping signed an agreement announcing areas of cooperation between Russia and China.
But Burns doesn’t think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will bring about major changes in Sino-Russian relations.
These are the views of U.S. military officials and intelligence officials.
[The determination of the West to aid Ukraine is unexpected, but the CCP is increasing military spending after the war]
Below, let’s take a look at the observations of independent writer Morgan Deane. Dean is a former U.S. Marine and a military historian. He believes that the CCP has been paying close attention to the development of the war in Ukraine and drawing lessons from it.
The CCP will never come forward and say its military is not ready to attack Taiwan, he said. But from studying some of the CCP’s external statements, it is clear that the CCP regime is taking steps to address world public opinion, soldier training, and logistical issues.
The sudden shift in world opinion during the Russian invasion of Ukraine is very surprising. Putin has invaded Georgia and captured Crimea, but with no serious consequences. And NATO appears to have been torn apart, with Biden admitting in a news conference a few weeks ago that NATO may not be able to agree on sanctions against Russia.
But when the Russian invasion of Ukraine did happen, the situation suddenly reversed. In addition to disputes over the transfer of MiG fighter jets, the United States and NATO are united, Germany has cancelled a gas pipeline with Russia, the European Union has passed tough sanctions, and sent many weapons to Ukraine.
The CCP has seen this, but it seems that it has not completely given up on attacking Taiwan. According to the words of Taiwanese Foreign Minister Wu Zhaoxie, the CCP has never given up the so-called military reunification. The Australian government has said Australia will honor its commitment to support the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region if China attacks Taiwan with force. At a press conference on March 10, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense responded in a corny tone, saying that Australia had “roughly interfered in China’s internal affairs”.
Dean believes that while the Chinese regime is the one signaling a possible incursion, it has attacked Australia to deflect blame and criticism. He doesn’t think the CCP’s remarks can prevent Western powers from “intervening” when the CCP attacks Taiwan.
Dean believes that the Russian military is doing badly. The recruits they send are poorly trained and lack a good army of officers. Therefore, it is not surprising that the CCP is addressing military training and overall decision-making. On March 5, Beijing announced a significant increase in its military budget.
Dean said the Chinese regime would make false accounting, and if it announced such a large increase, the actual increase could have been much larger. One of the main points of this money is for combat training and preparation. China fears that its soldiers will perform as badly as the Russians in Ukraine. “News Surprise”
[Taiwan also strengthens military training or prepares for a long war, as does the CCP]
Taiwan is also increasing the training of its reservists. This represents two things. First, it may be that the Taiwanese government believes that its reservists are undertrained. However, when faced with an invasion, most people believe that there will never be enough training.
Second, and more importantly, it may indicate that the Taiwanese government believes that if Beijing attacks Taiwan, in a state of war, it will not be a blitzkrieg, and Taiwan will have enough time to use reservists.
Dean analyzed that the CCP must be worried that its invasion of Taiwan will take longer than expected. Therefore, its increased military budget also includes logistics to improve its logistics capabilities. The importance of logistics is evident when the Russian convoy is seen snailing towards Kyiv due to a lack of spare parts and fuel.
[The Communist army’s attack on Taiwan has a major drawback, and Taiwan’s defense has its own two major advantages]
The CCP does not have a modern logistics system capable of handling modern warfare. At first glance, it may make some people stunned, but the armored divisions of Nazi Germany, as the war dragged on, were often supplied by carriages, which can be regarded as a miracle in modern warfare. The CCP could be in the same situation, with amazing weapons but only a limited supply, which would show their limitations in a long war.
Dean believes that in terms of logistics, in order to prove to the world how great the CCP is, it can contain the new crown epidemic with tough measures, it has shut down key parts of the domestic supply chain, and it cannot even ensure the normality of the domestic supply chain in peacetime. Therefore, if the CCP wants to improve the logistical capabilities of the military, it can only be done on a small scale in the short term.
Finally, Dean called for vigilance against the CCP’s military attack on Taiwan.
“Los Angeles Times” columnist Doyle McManus (DOYLE MCMANUS) analyzed that in some ways, the invasion of Taiwan looks easier than the invasion of Ukraine. Taiwan has an even smaller population of 24 million, while Ukraine has 44 million. Taiwan’s military is one-tenth the size of China’s, and it has yet to build up the territorial defenses Ukraine is using. Meanwhile, the Chinese Navy and Marine Corps have spent decades studying an amphibious landing on the island of Taiwan.
However, Taiwan has advantages that Ukraine does not have. The Taiwan Strait is over a hundred miles wide, making amphibious invasion difficult.
Taiwan has security commitments from the U.S. that, while not intervening as forcefully as the pact that guarantees U.S. defense of NATO allies, are more than Ukraine’s. The U.S. side specifically mentioned this in its conversation with Xi Jinping on March 18.
Finally, the U.S. has more direct economic interests in Taiwan than in Ukraine; Taipei is the U.S.’s main trading partner, and more than half of the world’s high-end microchips come from Taiwan.
[U.S. officials privately summed up Ukraine’s biggest experience for Taiwan to learn from]
In the article, McManus said U.S. officials have been privately highlighting another lesson from Ukraine. The United States and other countries can help Taiwan defend itself, but only if the Taiwanese show they are ready and willing to fight.
“People like fighters,” said Elbridge Colby, a former senior defense official in the Trump administration. “If Ukraine wilted on its own, there would be no international support for them.”
Ukraine has shown that a determined populace can make invaders dearly, and it provides a model for how to defend itself. The terrible cost of the war in Ukraine has the potential to somewhat deter Beijing and reduce the chances of conflict in Asia. “News Surprise”
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The production team of “The Surprise of the News”
(Editor in charge: Wang Xinyu)
URL of this article: https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2022/03/27/a103384867.html