Home » A “Melee” is about to be staged in Japanese politics. Abe wants to support her as the “first female prime minister”? -Mobile phone Xinmin

A “Melee” is about to be staged in Japanese politics. Abe wants to support her as the “first female prime minister”? -Mobile phone Xinmin

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A “Melee” is about to be staged in Japanese politics. Abe wants to support her as the “first female prime minister”?Fly into the homes of ordinary people

After Yoshihide Suga suddenly announced that he would not seek re-election, who would become the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party and then the new prime minister of Japan has aroused great attention from the outside world.

The election of the president of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party will be announced on the 17th and voting on the 29th. The struggle between the various factions has become increasingly fierce. At present, many members of the party including Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi, Taro Kono have expressed their intention to stand for election.

The drama of the crowds has already begun, and the successor is in suspense. Analysts believe that the name of Japan’s 100th prime minister sounds glamorous, but no matter who is elected, he still faces a mess.

Competition is getting fierce

Yoshihide Suga retired without warning, making many people in the Liberal Democratic Party eager to become the vacant president.

In addition to the former Foreign Minister who has already expressed his views on participating in the election, the former Liberal Democratic Party’s former political investigation chairperson Kishida Fumio and the former Minister of General Affairs Sanae Takaichi, the Minister of Administrative Reform Kono Taro and the Liberal Democratic Party Acting Secretary-General Seiko Noda announced their intention to participate in the competition on the 3rd. The minister and former secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party Shi Pomao and the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s political survey, Bowen Shimomura, also have aspirations.

With the increasingly fierce competition within the party, who is most likely to stand out? Wu Jinan, honorary chairman of the Shanghai Japanese Society and a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, predicted that a dazzling melee is about to take place in Japanese politics.

Fumio Kishida, who has a high reputation in the Liberal Democratic Party and rich political experience, is a popular figure in this election. Compared with others, he has a clearer political proposition. Earlier, it was made that the Liberal Democratic Party members should be 73 years old. The leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Campaign promises such as once a year, up to three consecutive terms, and the “Medical Refugee Zeroing” plan to solve the problem of the shortage of beds for COVID-19 patients.

The 64-year-old Kishida Fumio was popular among party members. “Even though he is in the Kishida faction, the fifth largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, members of both the Hosoda faction and the Aso faction of the first and second largest factions tend to favor him. He seems to have a greater chance of winning.” Wu Jinan analyzed, “Kishida’s weakness lies in the people. China’s reputation is not high, and every poll always lags behind, but this is not the deciding factor either.”

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In addition, Japanese media revealed on the 4th that Suga Yoshihide expressed his intention to support Taro Kono to the people around him. Compared to Fumio Kishida, the 58-year-old Kono Taro’s character is much more blatant. He has about 2.35 million followers on Twitter, especially a large number of young fans, so the public has a high reputation. However, his weak coordination skills and lack of stability are also obvious.

Ishibashi, who has “accompanyed” four presidential elections and repeated defeats, is also a popular player. He publicly stated on the 3rd that if the conditions and circumstances are right, he can make preparations for the prime minister.

“As an’veteran athlete’, Shi Pomao has popular popularity, but there is still a lack of like-minded people in the party.” Wu Jinan pointed out, “He is the former leader of the Shipo faction. The Shipo faction has only 17 members of Congress, and the Liberal Democratic Party presidential candidate must There are 20 Liberal Democratic Party members jointly recommended.”

In addition, after learning the news of Yoshihide Suga’s withdrawal from the election, Shimomura’s blog, who wanted to abandon the election, seemed to have “killed” back. The 67-year-old is the oldest, although he is from the Hosoda School, his popularity is lacking.


Caption: Takaichi Sanae and former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are close to each other. Source: GJ

Female players attract attention

The presidential election also triggered speculation about whether Japan will have the first female prime minister. The former Minister of General Affairs Sanae Takaichi and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have a close relationship. Japanese media reported on the 4th that Abe intends to support Sanae Takashi.

The 60-year-old Takaichi Sanae graduated from the Matsushita School of Political Science and Economics, the cradle of Japanese politicians. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 1993 and officially entered the political arena. As early as 20 years ago, she revealed her ambitions. In the book “The Prosperity Spectrum of Japan in the 21st Century”, she expressed her ambition to “be the first female prime minister of Japan”.

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Takaichi Sanae left the impression of quick talk and good communication, but his political views were on the right. Not only did he visit the Yasukuni Shrine many times, but he also repeatedly spoke harsh words about China.

Another woman running for the election is Seiko Nagano, acting secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party. In 1987, Seiko Noda, who was nearly 26 years old, was elected as a member of the Gifu Prefecture Assembly. The record for the youngest member of the assembly has been maintained for a long time. In 1998, at the age of 37, she served as Minister of Post in the Keizo Obuchi cabinet, becoming the youngest cabinet member in post-war Japan. External analysis believes that for Noda Seiko, who has repeatedly broken Japanese political records, affinity is her killer.

In addition to the above-mentioned six people, there may be people who will join the competition. It does not rule out the possibility that no more than half of the first round of elections will be held by the top two candidates in the second round of elections.


Caption: The energy of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cannot be underestimated Oriental IC

Abe behind the scenes

The election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan has always been behind the faction disputes, and this time is no exception.

From the current point of view, Fumio Kishida, who expressed his attitude early, has won the support of some members of the Hosoda faction and the Aso faction of the first and second largest factions, and occupies a favorable position among the party factions. Although Taro Kono, who belongs to the Aso faction, expressed his intention to run for the election to Aso, he received an ambiguous response, but most of the young members of the faction were optimistic about him. Despite the lack of power in the party, Shibaimao has reported that Toshihiro Nikai, secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, may bet his chips on him. According to other sources, Abe hopes to promote the Hosoda faction to support Sanae Takaichi, making her the “biggest dark horse.”

“The Hosoda faction, the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, has 96 congressmen, and the second order faction led by Nikai Toshihiro, who has a lot of political resources, also has a pivotal weight.” Industry insiders believe that the movements of the Hosoda faction and the second order faction are particularly worthy of attention.

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As Japan’s political arena renewed its situation, Shinzo Abe returned to the public eye. “Really excellent job done, I am very grateful for this successor.” Abe commented on Suga Yoshihide on the 3rd.

“Suga Yoshihide’s resignation is not unrelated to the Liberal Democratic Party’s refusal to support him, especially Abe playing a lot of small actions behind his back.” Wu Jinan believes that Abe has another part in his heart. It’s unlikely that he will come out of the mountain, but it does not rule out that he will become the trader behind Sanae’s leadership.”

It is foreseeable that Abe will take over the Hosoda faction in the future and is an important role that cannot be underestimated in Japanese politics.

Faced with “difficult tasks”

No matter who wins in the end, the successor still faces the “difficult tasks” left by his predecessor, and it is difficult to break some inherent situations in Japan in a short period of time. First, the diplomatic posture of “one-sided” toward the United States based on the Japan-US alliance will not change immediately; second, the trend of Japan’s economic and technological stagnation or even continued decline will not change.

However, the new prime minister may also bring some changes to Japan.

The first is partial control of the epidemic. The current epidemic in Japan is severe. Not only has the cumulative number of confirmed cases exceeded 1.5 million, but there is also a shortage of medical resources that is difficult to find. After the new cabinet takes office, the control of the epidemic is a top priority. Coupled with the increase in the proportion of vaccination, the spread of the epidemic is expected to be controlled to a certain extent.

The second is to fine-tune the political ecology. In the upcoming House of Representatives elections, if the Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition parties have a major change in the seats, there may be a relatively normal situation of checks and balances in the Japanese political arena, and some of the long-term ruling legacy of Abe may also be cleared to a certain extent.

“If not, the political situation in Japan may continue to be turbulent, reappearing the chaos of’one phase in a year’.” Wu Jinan believes.

Wang Ruoxian

Editor: Zhao Juling

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