BRUSSELS – A three-way deal. An agreement that makes the migrant question a real qualitative leap. And that initially involves Italy, Germany and France. On the “question of issues”, the control of migratory flows, a double channel of negotiations is thus opening up. The first concerns the table of the European Council which kicks off today and which will also have this theme, at the request of Italy, as one of its fulcrums. Then there is a much more reserved and much more restricted negotiation. Which, as a diplomatic source in Brussels explains, “is going on even in these hours”.
A bargaining that took its cue from the initial attempt to give life to the so-called “Malta 2” agreement for the redistribution between 5-6 countries of those who land above all in Italy. A picture that could accelerate precisely because it is currently focusing on an even smaller number of partners: the “founders” of the Union. Italy, Germany and France.
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The hypothesis was also discussed at the last summit in Berlin between Mario Draghi e Angela Merkel. Of course, it is a difficult path. In which the details – as always – have the devil’s tail. And then each step is dissected word by word. The fact remains that the working hypothesis on which the “Sherpas” of the three countries are working concerns the idea that the redistribution of new arrivals can be divided equally: that is, one third for each.
But this tripartite division, which is very advantageous for our country, will not be free. In fact, Berlin and Paris are putting the so-called dublinants on the scales. That is, the non-EU citizens who arrived in Italy and submitted the application to obtain the status of asylum seekers and then moved. According to the Dublin Regulation they should be reallocated to the country to which they applied. They should therefore return to us and their number is certainly not small.
The negotiation goes on precisely on this aspect: on how many “doubters” should return to our borders; starting from when; if and with what relationship with respect to the distribution of new arrivals. This is a discussion which, although not closed, has reached an advanced stage. And that in a second phase it could also be extended to other EU members.
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Moreover, this game is becoming very delicate for the Draghi government. And as the same diplomatic source says, “no one can think that such a serious emergency can be resolved with a single provision or a single measure. We need a complex of interventions ». This is why the confrontation that will take place today at the European Council is only part of the potential solution. Also because in the draft of the final document, in fact, the perspective offered to Italy at the moment is not comforting.
It is true that for the first time the entire EU is involved in the defense of external borders and in the possibility of entering into agreements with the countries of departure. But then it is postponed to next autumn – when the eventual summer migration crisis will be fully consumed – the indication of a package by the Commission. At the same time, the same document defines instead “urgent” the confirmation of the agreements – strongly desired by Germany – with Turkey to block the Balkan corridor. A situation that Italy does not intend to accept in these terms.
Tomorrow the premier and his Sherpas will insist on modifying the draft developed so far in order to try to give the same definition of “urgency” to the area that concerns us directly. Certainly, however, of the total 8 billion that the Union is allocating to tackle this chapter, 5.7 will go to Ankara. And it will happen in a very short time. The risk is that only 2.3 billion will remain for everything else: from Libya to Tunisia to the Sahel.
It is true that the Turkish “model” is now an example in all European negotiations and therefore will eventually be applied elsewhere as well. But it is also true that the situation in Libya is decidedly more unstable than the one put under control by Erdogan.
The EU is ready to close similar agreements with Libya when the Tripoli government has shown itself capable of dealing with the emergency and managing appropriations profitably. But Libyan stabilization is postponed to December, when elections will be held. Always who to take place because certainty is not absolute. The green light to the new pact with Turkey, however, for Germany represents a precondition for the other agreements. Italy knows this. For this he agrees to work on multiple tables.
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