Variant K is only the first of the terrorist mutations that will thrive in Afghanistan. The Taliban have never managed to have total control of the country, where – with or without their approval – other jihadist formations will now be born in addition to Isis-K. Not surprisingly, using a comparison with the pandemic, Moscow said that the priority is to prevent the “spillover”: contagion in neighboring countries. Which is one of the objectives of the movement responsible for the latest Kabul massacre: the K of the acronym stands for Khorasan, the ancient region that also included part of Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Isis-K wants to prevent any stabilization of Afghanistan. It fights the Taliban as in recent years it has tried to stir up the civil war, planting bombs between the Shiite community of Hazara and the Tajik minority. Its stronghold is on the Pakistani border, not far from Tora Bora where Osama Bin Laden he managed to escape the Americans, with a deep-rooted presence in the capital. Today it is foreseeable that it will trigger the hunt for US citizens – at least a thousand – and for the tens of thousands of collaborators who have not managed to escape. It will do so to show itself more uncompromising than the new rulers of Kabul and to highlight the unreliability of the Taliban government, which has promised to allow visa-holders to leave.
Isis-k, the sons of al Baghdadi aim for civil war to lead global jihad
by Lorenzo Vidino
The avant-garde of Daesh will not struggle to find more powerful weapons, stocking up in the arsenals abandoned by the national army, and probably foreign financiers interested in weakening the Taliban. With these new energies he will try to score other sensational blows against Westerners, necessary to propagate his skills and recruit recruits. And it will do everything to create armed cells in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The most terrible scenario is that, in the wake of Kabul, this epidemic revitalizes the fragments of the Islamic State dispersed in the Middle East after the defeat of Mosul: the last military commander of the Caliphate was just a Tajik – Gulmurad Khalimov – killed in 2017 by the Russians in Syria. Isis-K is just one of the many lethal acronyms able to develop from the Afghan outbreak. In the magmatic galaxy of armed fundamentalism, other fringes are already reported – such as the Pakistani Tehreek-e-Taliban – opening offices in Kabul, finally convinced that they have an oasis in which to act in the sunlight.
What is Isis-K and why the Taliban are its enemies
And the attack on the airport, with 13 US soldiers killed, demonstrates how important the NATO mission in Afghanistan was. Of course, they did not prevent the massacre of the airport, but intelligence had detailed information on the plans of the attack: the nature – kamikaze launched into the crowd – and the target – the Abbey Gate were known. News that can only be obtained thanks to infiltrators and agents in the field, what experts call “Humint”. Since its inception, the Americans have opposed the growth of Isis-K. In 2017, the underground power plant in the Nangarhar area was devastated by the colossal Moab bomb, the “mother of all bombs”. The explosion, similar to a mushroom cloud, had a psychological rather than an operational result, but was followed by dozens of CIA and special forces blitzes that halved its ranks: it is estimated that today it can count on about two thousand militiamen .
Until last Thursday, Isis-K has never managed to threaten American targets. And since 2001 in the world there has not been a planned attack in Afghanistan and carried out abroad. A very different situation compared to what happened in Somalia or Yemen, where the absence of Western troops made it possible to launch offensives in neighboring countries and plan operations in Europe. Or in Mali, where the ineffectiveness of the French intervention has allowed the “black flags” to proliferate throughout the Sahel. From next week, however, Afghanistan will also be out of control.
“A great attack with four car bombs”: the “K” factor of ISIS threatens the West
by Carlo Bonini
A worse situation than before September 11: the United States will not even have a base in neighboring countries, while at the time they could at least count on positions in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are now back alongside Moscow. Infiltrating spies on the ground will become difficult, both due to the distrust generated by the retreat and the absence of stable structures. Surveillance will be a matter of satellites, drones and interceptions. That is the electronic network that has failed to prevent the destruction of the Twin Towers: from space it is impossible to distinguish an Afghan farm from an Al Qaeda command, while the missile salvoes fired several times at Osama Bin Laden they have never scratched his organization. Lessons we have not been able to treasure.
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