Up to 205,000 deaths could be avoided each year by strengthening urban bicycle mobility to zero car journeys in the city by 2050. This was stated in a study by Colorado State University, published in Environmental Health Perspectives, which estimated the impact of urban cycling in the 20-64 age group in 17 countries (Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany , India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Russia, South Africa, United Kingdom and United States). The researchers built two models.
In the first scenario, only 8% of future car trips within the city are replaced by bike trips; in the second scenario, all journeys within the city are made by bicycle, eliminating, or almost eliminating, the use of cars within the urban perimeter.
In the case of the first scenario, the avoidable deaths in the 17 countries under examination would be 18,589 every year, in the second scenario they would reach 205,424 fewer deaths. For Italy, the lives saved would be 100 per year with the first scenario and 1,257 with the second. In 2018, 55% of the world population lived in an urban area and, according to the UN data cited in the article, this percentage is expected to increase by 70-80% in the coming years.
It is estimated that today up to 70% of the public space in the city has been specifically designed to accommodate motor vehicles.
‘This study is an invitation to implement policies that support sustainable mobility and sound urban design,’ said David Rojas-Rueda, first author of the study.