On August 13, 2021, a Taliban militant holds a rocket grenade on the side of the road in Herat, Afghanistan’s third largest city. (Image source: AFP via Getty Images)
[LookatthenewsfromChinaonAugust192021]
Moderator: Chen Kuide
Panellist: Mr. Feng Chongyi, Professor of Chinese Studies, University of Technology Sydney
1. The Taliban regain power after 20 years
On August 6, the Taliban occupied the first provincial capital of Afghanistan; on August 15, they surrounded the capital Kabul and began negotiations on the transfer of power with the government; on August 16, Taliban soldiers entered the Afghan capital of Kabul and occupied the presidential palace. This means the downfall of the Afghan government, and the Taliban are about to regain control of the country.
There was no resistance, the president fled, and the capital was occupied by the Taliban. Afghanistan, which covers 652,300 square kilometers, fell in less than ten days.
2. Why is Afghanistan an “imperial cemetery”?
Afghanistan is called the “Imperial Cemetery”, mainly from its history after 1978.
In the 20th century, before 1978, Afghanistan was generally peaceful, and it did not even intervene in World War I or World War II. But after 1978, everything has taken a turn for the worse. For 40 years, the Afghan people have never lived a peaceful and peaceful life and have become a typical failed country.
In 1978, there was a coup called the “Shar Revolution” in Afghanistan. The ultra-left People’s Democratic Party overthrew the Dawood government and established a radical left-wing regime, which started the nightmare of Afghanistan. Dawood also came to power through a coup in 1973. At that time, he believed that the royal family was too conservative, and he wanted to promote more left-wing social changes. As a result, five years later, he himself was overthrown by the more left-leaning People’s Democratic Party.
After the Shahr Revolution in 1978, the People’s Democratic Party came to power and began to implement more radical reforms, encountering fierce resistance. The new regime soon couldn’t stand it, so it turned to the Soviet Union for help. In 1979, the Soviet army came in with tanks, and the war began: on one side were the government and its backstage Soviet forces, and on the other side were armed people.
It was at the height of the Cold War. The armed people in Afghanistan were backed by the United States, Pakistan, the CCP, and Saudi Arabia, which caused the Soviet army to fall into a quagmire. At this time, bin Laden abandoned his rich life in Saudi Arabia and came to Afghanistan. Before he became America’s number one enemy, he was indeed a comrade-in-arms of the United States.
In 1989, the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe changed drastically, and the Soviet Union withdrew its troops. From 1992 to 1996, the armed groups that had jointly resisted the Soviet Union began to fight each other. The chaotic civil war did produce a victor in the end, but this was not an ordinary victor, but an extreme organization of the Taliban.
Originally, as brutal as the Taliban, even if they could not build a beautiful country, they could also build an effective country. However, because the Taliban was so weird, all kinds of perverse actions led to the fact that the friends who were fighting each other united to fight against it. This is the famous The “Northern Allied Forces”. Therefore, even if the Taliban came to power, the civil war in Afghanistan continued until the Taliban was overthrown by the US military in 2001. Between 1978 and 2001, about 1 to 2 million people died in war in Afghanistan, 4 million people fled to Pakistan and Iran, and millions more were internally displaced.
When the September 11 incident occurred in 2001, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan led to the invasion of US troops because of sheltering bin Laden. This was once regarded as a turning point for Afghanistan. However, just like the Soviet Union 20 years ago, the US military has gradually found itself in a nightmare that is difficult to wake up. In 2001, the whole world believed that the U.S. military had driven away the Taliban, but since 2006 the Taliban has made a comeback. By 2019, the government only controls 35% of the territory, and the Taliban occupy 13% of Afghanistan. On the other half of the territory, the two sides started a tug of war.
In fact, in Afghanistan, it is difficult for any government or political system to construct a normal country. Over the past 40 years, Afghanistan has tried constitutional monarchy, authoritarian republic, communist regime, theocracy, American democracy, and anarchy, but in all these experiments, state building has failed. Afghanistan is called the “Imperial Cemetery”.
3. Why did it fail?
Why is the country building process in Afghanistan so difficult? There are at least four factors: first, the mountainous terrain makes it difficult to form a centralized government, which creates a political tradition of tribalism; second, the geographical position of great powers makes civil wars often become proxy wars of great powers, and wars are difficult to win. Negative, it is impossible to complete the work in one battle, and it is difficult to form a violent monopoly; third, the religious fanaticism aroused by the Soviet invasion has poisoned the cultural soil of Afghanistan, making it difficult to establish secular political power; fourth, the multi-ethnic state The structure also makes it difficult for the political forces of all parties to reach a consensus on the power distribution plan.
Afghanistan has combined the above factors into one, and as a result, it has become one of the most stubborn “failed nations” in the world today.
4. Why did the United States withdraw?
1) The reason why the United States sent troops in 2001
Bin Laden, the culprit of the September 11 attacks, was sheltered by the Taliban government in Afghanistan, and the United States sent troops to overthrow the Taliban regime.
2) The basic reason for the withdrawal: the national interest of the United States
After the U.S. military killed Bin Laden in 2011, the U.S. feud had already been reported, and without a reason to exist in Afghanistan, it began planning to withdraw, hoping that the government it supported could protect itself and protect its citizens. This hope was frustrated, and the new regime did not have the ability and willingness to protect the country. The United States cannot fill the bottomless pit of Afghanistan forever. It must withdraw its troops to avoid endless consumption of the lives of its citizens and the money of taxpayers. Simply put, stop loss, the sooner the better.
3) The current world situation requires the United States to shrink its national power and implement a major strategic shift in order to concentrate its efforts on responding to the CCP’s threat to the global order.
4) Does withdrawal damage the credibility of the United States‘ international obligations it has committed to? Does Taiwan have reasons to worry?
A. Afghanistan and Taiwan cannot be compared. In short, the protection of Taiwan is the genuine national interest of the United States, and it is also the geopolitical interest of the West. The presence of troops in Afghanistan is harming the national interest of the United States.
B. No country can defend and support a government that lacks the political will and ability to defend itself for a long time.
C. For the United States, long-term pain is not as good as short-term pain.
5. Can the CCP fill the vacuum left by the United States?
1) The difference between Beijing’s current attitude and a few months ago
Previously condemned the U.S. withdrawal as “irresponsible and created regional instability”; now he praises the Taliban as “an important political and military force in Afghanistan”, “I hope to develop good relations with China, and look forward to China’s participation in the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan. Never allow any forces to use Afghan territory to do things that endanger China.”
2) The CCP is currently the most important international supporter of the Taliban
The CCP is not only willing to provide financial support to the Taliban, but also endorses the legitimacy of the Taliban’s regime.
Beijing attempts to use opportunistic tactics to gain geopolitical benefits.
3) Beijing has become increasingly isolated after the two-sided encirclement of the “Trans-Atlantic Alliance” in the democratic world and the “U.S., Japan, Australia and India” Indo-Pacific NATO. In order to get rid of the dilemma of isolation, hungry and never choose food, “everything in the basket”, hesitate to seek help from the Taliban who had been cursed in the past.
4) Beijing’s first two ends of the rat both want to reap the economic benefits (the Belt and Road) and geopolitical benefits from the Taliban, but also want to avoid the influence of Taliban Islamic fundamentalism on northwestern China. My feeling is that, in the end, the effect may be the opposite: it is difficult to obtain the benefits of the Belt and Road Initiative (the area will be more chaotic after the United States withdraws), and it is difficult to avoid the expansion of Islamic extremist forces in northwestern China. Let us pay close attention to the results of historical evolution!
(The article only represents the author’s personal position and opinions)
Source: Radio Free Asia
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