China’s future does not depend on Taiwan—it has already embarked on the path to becoming the world’s largest economy, and its military power has made it a formidable regional power.
In the past 40 years, about 700 million people in China have been lifted out of poverty. The country’s eyes are turning to the West, extending its economic influence across Central Asia to the Middle East and Africa. The huge “Belt and Road” investment and infrastructure projects are expected to become the Silk Road of the 21st century.
The close relationship between China and Pakistan has won it control of Gwadar Port, which is the gateway to the Persian Gulf. China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization encompasses all Central Asian countries.
China’s westward strategy aims to ensure the supply of energy resources from the Middle East. For China, the westward strategy seeks to gain advantages that are vital to the United States.
As the “Diplomat” magazine pointed out, “From Central Asia to the Middle East, no country falls under the direct influence of the United States, and no country poses a potential threat to China.”
So, if the West promises to provide wealth and power, why does Xi Jinping seem to be so obsessed with controlling Taiwan, risking a war that could crush everything China has built?
However, Xi Jinping is increasing the intensity of threats and intimidation. In the past week, China sent a record number of fighter jets to fly over Taiwan at low altitude in a simulated attack.
Earlier last week, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Wu Zhaoxie told ABC’s “Tonight China Show” that Taiwan felt threatened and was preparing for war.
Taiwan: A symbol of the post of President Xi Jinping?
Is this a battle China needs? In many ways, it has won. Few countries in the world recognize Taiwan; the island is excluded from international institutions.
Taiwan needs China more than China needs Taiwan. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. China’s military power clearly surpasses Taiwan.
However, Xi Jinping has made it clear that he will take the risk of war to unify Taiwan. He set the date for completing the reunification plan in 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Revolution.
But this man who has amended the Chinese constitution to make himself a “lifetime chairman” probably won’t wait another 30 years. Some observers who know the situation speculate that he may take action within the next five years.
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It seems that Taiwan is a symbol of the post of President Xi Jinping, and it is his effort to establish an immortal reputation in the Communist Party. Taiwan is an unfinished business, a revolutionary legacy led by Mao Zedong. At that time, the rival Kuomintang fled to the other side of the Taiwan Strait and established the Republic of China. Later, the Republic of China became a democratic country and it was “independent” without formal declaration.
When Xi Jinping talks about “unification”, it must be remembered that the Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan.
But it has a strong control over the identity of the Chinese. Taiwan is part of the “hundred-year humiliation”, from the Opium War with Britain in the mid-19th century, to the demise of the Qing Dynasty in the early 20th century, to the colonial rule of China by foreign powers.
Taiwan was occupied by Japan during the Sino-Japanese War in 1895 and was not let go until after World War II. As pointed out by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Taiwan is a “persistent symbol of Chinese victims.”
Taiwan is strategically important. When the United States maintained a military base there, the island was called an “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” During the Cold War, Taiwan was at the core of America’s efforts to contain communism.
The Chinese government is still worried about being surrounded by foreign powers.
However, the United States and China have long maintained an uneasy status quo around “one China”, despite the different interpretations on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Why the Taiwan issue has intensified again
Since President Nixon and Chairman Mao sat down in 1972 to begin the reconciliation of the cold war rivals between the United States and China, China and the United States’ commitment to a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue has been at the center of the front row.
Over time, the wording has changed, and it has also reached a moment of imminent fire-the most recent time was in 1996, China caused a panic about Taiwan’s missile test. The United States has assembled troops in the Taiwan Strait. This is the largest display of US military power since the Vietnam War.
What happened in 1996 is crucial to understanding why the Taiwan issue has intensified again.
Twenty-five years ago, war was avoided and a new balance was achieved. Countries in the region, including Australia, reaffirmed their commitment to the “One China” policy.
However, the seeds of suspicion and resentment have already been sown. China has to acquiesce to the military power of the United States. China’s self-esteem has been hurt, and since then it has accelerated the pace of military construction.
Its focus is to build a national defense force that can dissolve the U.S. naval power and win a regional war. Senior U.S. military officials have stated that China has changed the military status quo.
The United States is now strengthening its alliances—including the alliance with Australia—in response to China’s growing power and toughness.
Xi Jinping has threatened to use force against Taiwan. This has been said a lot. But this is not new. In 1996, then Chinese President Jiang Zemin refused to give up the threat of force despite his promise to work for peaceful reunification.
In 1996, the young Xi Jinping was an aspiring Communist Party leader and served as deputy secretary of the Fujian Provincial Party Committee. Fujian faces Taiwan across the sea, and hundreds of medium-range missiles aim directly across the strait from there.
Xi Jinping clearly remembers the confrontation in 1996. He told his people over and over again that China would no longer be humiliated.
Xi Jinping judged that the moment of belonging to China is coming, and today the United States is a declining power.
Attacking Taiwan is not strategic-it is illogical and not even necessary. It is perceptual, and it is a matter of identity. These things often don’t make sense in reason-and this is where it is dangerous.
The “Tonight China Show” hosted by Stan Grant is broadcast on the main ABC TV channel at 9:35 pm on Mondays and on the ABC News Channel at 8 pm on Tuesdays.
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