[Epoch Times December 22, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Luo Ya and Ning Haizhong reported) The Chinese Communist Party’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently talked about Sino-US relations. Many experts believe that if the destructive nature of the CCP remains unchanged, Sino-US relations cannot be improved. Under the current situation, Xi Jinping will face turbulent waves when he will be re-elected to the 20th National Congress next year.
On December 20, 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the “2021 International Situation and Chinese Diplomacy Symposium” in Beijing. Throughout the text, he blamed the United States for the tensions in Sino-US relations under the titles of “individual countries” and “powers.” Alleged that the U.S. made a strategic misjudgment of China and Sino-U.S. relations.
Wang Yi’s speech also pointed out that 2022 is the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s visit to China. He believed that China and the United States should “push the U.S. policy toward China to return to rationality and push Sino-U.S. relations back on track.”
The essence of the CCP remains unchanged, the U.S.-China relationship cannot go back
On the 21st, Cheng Qinmo, director of the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations at Tamkang University in Taiwan, said in an interview with Epoch Times that the current world pattern is very different from that of President Nixon’s visit to China back then. There is a big gap in the environment. The CCP regime not only disrupts the balance of power, it also threatens regional security and stability.
Zheng Qinmo said that the United States continues to impose sanctions on the CCP’s unfair trade practices, promotes the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Quadruple Talks (QUAD) to contain the CCP, and organizes the US-UK-Australia AUKUS three-nation military alliance to contain the CCP’s military deployment.
According to the CCP’s official draft, Wang Yi continued to utter ruthless remarks on the CCP’s attitude towards the United States in the coming year, saying, “It’s okay to have dialogue, but it should be equal,” and “to fight against fear and stay with you to the end,” goes.
Zheng Qinmo believes that whether the U.S.-China relationship can return to the right track lies with the CCP. As long as the CCP continues to despise basic human rights, persecute religious beliefs, threaten regional security and stability, and undermine the rule-based international order, the CCP will continue to be surrounded by global democracies. Blocked, it is impossible for the US-China relations to return to the right track.
Is Wang Yi’s speech soft because of the CCP’s overwhelming self-care?
In Wang Yi’s speech, both hard and soft are also soft. He said that in 2021, China and the United States should “explore a new paradigm of mutual respect and equal exchanges.” He also mentioned the “two phone calls” and “first video meeting” between Xi Jinping and Biden, expressing the hope that the US would “work with China to explore the peaceful coexistence of the two powers.”
According to public information, the Biden administration has basically followed the Trump administration’s hardline policy on China since it took office in January this year. The two major political parties in the U.S. Congress are highly consistent in their treatment of the CCP. Although U.S. officials have repeatedly stated that the United States does not want to conflict with China and will seek to establish a barrier to prevent conflicts with China, a senior White House National Security Council official who attended the meeting last month after Biden had a video call with Xi Jinping After the meeting, it was said that the talks failed to establish a new guardrail for the two countries to avoid conflict over the Taiwan issue.
Regarding Wang Yi’s description of the softer tone of Sino-US relations, Yan Jianfa, deputy chief executive of the Taiwan Democracy Foundation and professor of the Department of Business Administration at Jianxing University of Science and Technology, analyzed the Epoch Times that Wang Yi’s statement has some changes to his original war wolf diplomacy. This provocative feature.
He believes that this is mainly due to problems encountered within the CCP, especially after the authorities have carried out major rectifications, and the entire Chinese economy has declined.
However, Yan Jianfa also believes that what Wang Yi is talking about is only a diplomatic vocabulary, and the rising trend of Sino-US competition and conflict cannot be stopped.
He said that it is inevitable that the structural relationship between China and the United States will deteriorate. For example, the United States and China have imposed sanctions on each other recently. In the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics in February next year, if the United States sanctions, other countries will follow suit. “So I think it (the Chinese Communist Party) The current softening trend will not help.”
On the Taiwan issue, Wang Yi once again used what Xi Jinping said during his video meeting with Biden last month to attribute the tension in the Taiwan Strait to the so-called “relying on the US for independence” and the US “using Taiwan to control China.” Throw out the issue of Taiwan’s reunification.
Yan Jianfa said: “The more it (the CCP) suppresses Taiwan, the better it is for Taiwan. The more Taiwan’s international support will be.” And the CCP may now be caught in internal disputes, including some articles from the People’s Daily and Xinhua News Agency that did not mention a word. Xi Jinping’s way of writing, “So I think it may be difficult to cope with internally now, too busy to take care of itself, and there should be no time to deal with external affairs.”
Four backgrounds of Wang Yi’s speech
Guo Yuren, executive director of the National Policy Research Institute of Taiwan, told The Epoch Times that Wang Yi’s speech did not deviate from the CCP’s so-called major power diplomacy and peripheral diplomacy. There are four backgrounds in his speech. The first is the friction between the U.S. and China in trade and technology for three years since President Trump in 2018. The CCP’s acquisition of key technologies has been hindered. The U.S. sanctions on Chinese companies have continued to the present, making the CCP overwhelmed.
“That’s why he (Wang Yi) said that he hopes that the U.S. policy toward China will return to rationality, and then emphasize a win-win situation and peaceful coexistence.”
The second major background is that the United States will begin to establish the Indo-Pacific economic structure next year. He believes that US Secretary of State Blincol’s visit to Indonesia and Malaysia (Thailand temporarily canceled) is similar to lobbying for these three countries to join the US-led India. Too economic structure.
Guo Yuren said that this is tantamount to digging the CCP’s foothold, so the CCP is very nervous.
The third background involves the political and military relations between Taiwan and the United States. Because Taiwan’s four major referendums, including the resumption of nuclear four, anti-Laiyan pigs, referendum tied to the general election, and three relocation cases, were rejected by the people of Taiwan on December 18.
He said that the U.S. pig (Laizhu) is the main obstacle in Taiwan-U.S. trade relations and has been removed. Taiwan-US relations will accelerate. In the consideration of the CCP government, of course it is to call on the United States to give priority to the interests of the CCP, not Taiwan.
Guo Yuren also said that Taiwan’s referendum to deal with the US pig issue, the next step, it is possible to deal with the Japanese Fukushima food issue. Once this trade barrier is cleared, the possibility of Taiwan joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will greatly increase. “Neither the development of Taiwan-U.S. relations nor the development of relations between Taiwan and Japan is what China (the CCP) wants to see.”
He mentioned that the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a video speech at the National Policy Research Institute of Taiwan in early March and mentioned that if there is something in Taiwan, it is something in Japan.
Guo Yuren said that the effect of that speech was very rare in Sino-Japanese relations in recent years. “China’s actions are very big. That speech was at 9 o’clock in the morning Taiwan time. On December 1, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party At 3 o’clock that afternoon, he criticized Shinzo Abe for talking nonsense about China’s internal affairs. In the evening, Assistant Foreign Minister Hua Chunying summoned the Japanese ambassador to Beijing to express a solemn protest. This is probably the last few years of Sino-Japanese relations. The most serious incident ever”.
But the Japanese government’s attitude is also very firm, responding that China must understand that there is such a voice in Japan. Guo Yuren said that this is the first time that “things in Taiwan” has been connected to the US-Japan alliance. This is one of the backgrounds of Wang Yi’s speech.
The fourth background is that Australia, Britain and the United States announced on September 16 that they had reached the Trilateral Security Agreement (AUKUS), or the Okus Agreement, and the United States and Britain decided to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarine technology.
Guo Yuren said that there is now a lot of news, including that the United States may send Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia before it is possible to obtain new submarines in Australia, so that the Australian Navy can start to understand the operation of nuclear submarines in advance.
He said that the US nuclear strike and nuclear submarine strike force, if all its personnel are deployed to Australia, will have very large checks and balances on China’s attempts to break through the second island chain. In addition, the United States has actually joined Australia and Japan in joint operations in the South Pacific. This will also have a great effect of checks and balances on the part of the CCP’s “One Belt, One Road” that will extend to the South Pacific.
Why must the United States contain the CCP?
Yan Jianfa believes that it is impossible for the United States to abandon its containment of the CCP. For example, in military competition, the U.S. feels that the CCP is a threat.
On October 27, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, confirmed that the Chinese military had conducted a test of a hypersonic weapon into space orbit.
The U.S. Department of Defense announced in November the report on China’s military power in 2021, which significantly increased its estimate of the CCP’s nuclear deterrence in the next ten years.
On November 17, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), the bipartisan advisory body of the US Congress, submitted its 2021 report to Congress, recommending a number of “emergency measures” to strengthen counter-control against the Chinese Communist Party, and proposed strengthening support for Taiwan’s confrontation The CCP’s military deterrence and strengthened supervision of Chinese companies.
The U.S. Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act 2022 on December 5, recommending that the U.S. Department of Defense invite Taiwan to participate in the 2022 Rim of the Pacific military exercise and calling for plans to assist Taiwan in strengthening its asymmetric defense capabilities.
According to the CCP’s official draft, Wang Yi said in his speech on the 20th that the US and allies’ actions to contain the CCP were “trying to form gangs”, but at the same time said the CCP would deepen its “side-by-side and back-to-back” relationship with Russia. He also claimed that the world order has only the basic norms of international relations based on the UN Charter, although the CCP has always refused to accept the rulings of the International Arbitration Tribunal established in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the South China Sea issue.
Yan Jianfa said that the CCP’s expansion does have a kind of potential pressure on the United States. “So now the United States is actively uniting his allies. Once this kind of competition rises, the United States feels threatened. I think (the Chinese Communist Party) no matter how rhetorically, it is of little significance to the United States. The United States has gone through these two or three. After ten years of lessons, I will be more vigilant about this so-called sweet talk about peace.”
In addition, the CCP continues to work to expand its influence in Southeast Asia, which constitutes a destabilizing factor in the region. Yan Jianfa analyzed that the South China Sea issue is not of concern to all Southeast Asian countries, but almost all of these countries rely on the CCP in economics and trade, and conflict with the issue of water resources.
He said: “Water conflicts will be very serious. So these countries have always hoped that the United States and Japan will intervene, but they don’t want to intervene too much.” If the two sides really fought, these countries must choose the United States and choose the side that wins.
The CCP’s “back-to-back” self-inflicted bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S.
Regarding Wang Yi’s statement that the CCP will deepen its “back-to-back” strategic cooperation with Russia, Guo Yuren, the chief executive of Taiwan’s National Policy Research Institute, believes that Russia-China relations are actually based on Putin’s will, and it is difficult for the CCP to influence it.
He believes that Wang Yi said these words at this point in time. One reason is that the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border is severe. The CCP wants to take advantage of the contradiction between Russia and NATO. Wang Yi’s speech is a little bit opportunistic.
In addition, Guo Yuren believes that China and Russia are not allies, and the military cooperation and integration between the two countries is not high. Wang Yi’s words are a little self-exaggerated. He uses this as a bargaining chip to negotiate with the United States.
He said: “But I think Wang Yi’s remarks can only be opened up. If the situation in Europe rises, whether it is any military conflict between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, or the three Baltic states, the CCP will not be able to take advantage. The situation between Russia and NATO has taken a turn for the worse, which will only make these democracies more united. “The U.S. policy attitude towards the situation in Europe is actually quite firm.”
The U.S. is bullish and the CCP is getting harder and harder
Speaking of the future investment and effectiveness of the United States and China’s diplomacy, Yan Jianfa, a professor in the Department of Business Administration at Jianxing University of Science and Technology, believes that the United States is bullish and the CCP will become increasingly difficult.
Yan Jianfa analyzed that Biden will actively join international organizations when he comes up. If he participates more, he will definitely squeeze the CCP, because in the past 20 years, the CCP has spent a lot of resources on it and has placed a lot of its own people. It has also won many countries, but the result is not good.
Now people can see that, including Tedross, also demanded that the CCP should trace the source of COVID-19, “This has shown that even Tedross, who had always been close to China, is now moving in the middle and is relatively neutral.”
He believes that in the future, the Biden administration of the United States should devote its full efforts to diplomacy and international organizations, while the efficiency that the CCP can exert will be limited.
In addition, the failure of the CCP’s diplomacy is also related to economic issues. Yan Jianfa said that the CCP now seems to have no money. Recently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also cut its budget and personnel. “So it can be seen that it will support the so-called small and weak countries, or the’Belt and Road’ in the future, and it cannot be as generous as before.”
“Relatively speaking, like Biden is about to invest 1.2 trillion in infrastructure facilities, infrastructure investment, which will also bring demand for exports of commodities from other countries. The overall momentum of the United States is rising.” He said.
Yan Jianfa said that the CCP’s current problem is that its investment conditions are getting worse, including the handling of the so-called Taiwan independence of Taiwanese businessmen, such as the Xu Xudong incident. Many Taiwanese businessmen do not dare to stay any longer.
“Businessmen in those weak and small countries will definitely run away. Coupled with the deterioration of China’s environment, its own business space is shrinking. How can it encourage some innovative industries or high-value investments?”
“The CCP has become more and more difficult to obtain high-tech and high value-added products. Because the United States and its allies will get stuck.” Yan Jianfa said.
Xi Jinping’s 20th Dalian term will have “turbulent waves”?
Regarding the prediction of US-China relations between the United States and China next year, Guo Yuren said that Beijing will be very careful because the Biden administration’s attacks on the CCP’s economy, trade and technology are very precise.
He said that Biden will establish an Indo-Pacific economic structure next year and has discussed regional economic and trade integration with Australia and Japan in advance. This will largely offset the effect of the CCP’s regional economic and trade integration in Southeast Asia.
Guo Yuren said that the actions of the United States have not been so good for the CCP, and the CCP has encountered very serious domestic economic and financial problems in the past six months, including the real estate bubble that may burst at any time. Therefore, the CCP authorities have also recently reduced the economic growth. The data is revised down.
“It looks like Xi Jinping will be re-elected to the 20th National Congress by the end of next year, and I think there will also be stormy waves.” Guo Yuren said.
Editor in charge: Gao Jing#
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