[The Epoch Times, January 25, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Zhang Ting comprehensive report) The CCP has spent billions of dollars for the Beijing Winter Olympics in order to take the opportunity to show its strength and build its image to the world. Analysts believe that if Russia chooses to invade Ukraine during the Winter Olympics, it will affect global attention to the Winter Olympics, which is the last thing Xi Jinping wants to see.
Analysts believe the last thing Xi Jinping wants to see is Putin attacking Ukraine during the Beijing Winter Olympics, casting a shadow over China’s important Olympic moment, Bloomberg reported on January 22. Xi, in particular, is seeking to boost his prestige at home as he wants to secure a third term later this year.
The article said that if Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine at the time of Xi Jinping’s Olympics, it may cause Sino-Russian relations to be in trouble, and may even draw China into a diplomatic war.
Citing a Beijing-based diplomat, Bloomberg reported that Xi may have asked Putin not to invade Ukraine during the Olympics in a recent phone call with Putin.
The Chinese embassy in Russia on Saturday (Jan 22) dismissed the prospect, adding that Beijing advocates addressing the issues through the framework of the Minsk Peace Agreement.
Russia’s foreign ministry also denied reports by Bloomberg, saying reports that Xi Jinping asked Putin not to invade Ukraine during the Winter Olympics were false. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian also expressed similar views.
But China’s foreign ministry, at a news conference on January 14, had emphasized Beijing’s view that it did not want to see war during the Olympics. Spokesman Wang Wenbin said all countries should abide by the traditional UN Olympic truce resolution from seven days before the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics to seven days after the closing of the Beijing Winter Paralympics.
Russia may have to wait at least until this week to make a decision on how to resolve the Ukraine issue, when it will receive a written answer to its security demands from the United States.
Two people familiar with recent assessments in the West told Bloomberg that while Russia is unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion immediately, it may choose to conduct a limited intrusion into Ukraine around mid-February, including a cyberattack and an attempt to destabilize Ukraine. That assessment doesn’t mean a larger invasion is impossible, as Western allies have repeatedly said they were unaware of Putin’s intentions.
Russian political expert: Putin won’t refer to Beijing’s request to attack Ukraine
Similar incidents have occurred before. In 2008, Russia’s war with Georgia broke out on the opening day of the Beijing Summer Olympics, embarrassing and chagrining Chinese leaders, prompting Putin to fly back from Beijing to direct military operations.
“Putin cannot sacrifice Russia’s strategic interests and security to make a neighbor feel good,” Bloomberg quoted Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, as saying. R.Politik is an analysis firm focused on Russian politics.
If the Russian leader believes that the security talks with the United States have yielded nothing, “then he will invade Ukraine, regardless of any Chinese demands,” Stanovaya said.
The timing of the Russia-Belarus joint military exercise coincides with the Olympics
According to media reports, Russia’s advanced fighter jets have arrived in Belarus in northern Ukraine in recent days.
The China Russia Report under SupChina published an article on January 23 saying that Russia and Belarus announced a joint military exercise in February. In the first phase of the exercise, Russian troops will be deployed in Belarus until February 9. The two sides said the second phase of the exercise will take place from February 10 to 20 and will include “tasks to suppress and repel external aggression during defensive operations”. The Russian Navy has also announced that it will hold exercises in “all areas of responsibility” in January and February. The size, location and timing of the exercises are unknown, suggesting Putin is likely to seek a military escalation in the coming weeks.
The article said that the timing of the second phase of the joint exercise “seems very important. The Beijing Olympics will be held on February 4 with the opening ceremony and will end on the 20. February 20 is also the date of the end of the Russian and Belarusian exercises, perhaps not coincidentally.” Moscow may be signaling to Beijing that any substantial escalation by Russia against Ukraine will not happen until the second phase of the exercise takes place, but probably not until after February 20.
The United States and NATO have warned that Russian troops participating in joint exercises could be used to attack Ukraine from the north.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#