[Epoch Times March 18, 2022](Reported by Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya) The Chinese Communist Party has always had an ambiguous attitude towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it has been accused of actually supporting Russia. In recent days, Chinese diplomats and official mouthpieces have shown subtle changes in their stance on Ukraine. Experts believe that the CCP quickly adjusted its position because it saw that the situation was not right.
Subtle changes in the CCP’s propaganda
On March 16, the CCTV news channel of the Communist Party of China broadcasted the statement issued by the Ukrainian military on the 15th on its “Chao Wen Tianxia” and “News Live Room” in the morning and afternoon for many times. The statement said that since the start of the war, the Russian army has destroyed 404 tanks, 1,729 armored vehicles, 150 artillery systems, 64 multiple rocket launchers, 36 air defense systems, 81 fixed-wing aircraft, 95 helicopters, 640 cars, 3 ships, 60 fuel carriers, 9 tactical drones, etc.
In addition, according to CCTV news on the 17th, the Russian Ministry of Defense released news on the 16th that the Russian army used long-range precision-guided weapons to attack the military infrastructure of Ukraine on the morning of the same day. Signal forwarding and switching centers are paralyzed. According to the report, since the start of the special military operation, the Russian army has destroyed 180 Ukrainian military aircraft and helicopters, 166 drones, 1,367 tanks and armored vehicles, 132 multiple rocket launchers, 502 artillery and mortars, and military vehicles. 1,156 vehicles.
The aforementioned reports show that the CCP is now reporting military losses to Russia and Ukraine.
However, the previous Russian invasion of Ukraine lasted for 20 days, and CCP state media such as Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News and Global Times only reposted a large number of news from Russian officials.
The official media has always been the real indicator of the CCP’s official attitude. Previously, it was discovered that the top officials of the CCP have always claimed to remain “neutral” in the Russian-Ukrainian war, but on social media such as Twitter and Facebook, the CCP’s official media and diplomats have continuously promoted Russia’s official position.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, most of the CCP’s official media and diplomatic accounts used the Russian official term “Special Military Operation” to describe the war, and massively promoted “NATO eastward expansion” and “de-Nazi” from Russian officials. change”.
A new report by the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a division of the German Marshall Fund, an American think tank, found that in the past few years, the Chinese Communist Party has barely used the word “Nazi” to describe Ukraine. Such rhetoric did not appear in large numbers in the tweets or retweets of CCP state media and diplomats until February this year.
The Chinese state media also relayed almost all the news, including fake news, given by the Russian state media and the government. For example, it was repeatedly forwarded that Ukrainian President Zelensky had fled Kyiv.
The official suddenly cleans up the Internet “pretending to be a local netizen”
Within the CCP’s “Great Firewall”, the government strictly controls the flow of information through censorship, blocking anti-war and pro-Ukraine information.
It is worth noting that now the CCP has begun to clean up the “rumours” of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the Internet, mainly cleaning up “impostors”.
The Chinese community platform Weibo announced on March 17 that due to hot events such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic in China, netizens had a high degree of discussion. While the Weibo station strengthened its investigation and punishment of illegal information, it was still found that some netizens who pretended to be local netizens published and disseminated inappropriate information. In order to maintain order, it is expected that the “user profile page showing the location of recent posts” will be launched in the next week.
In this regard, Lin Yingyou, a Taiwanese strategist, told The Epoch Times that the official may want to pass the responsibility of false information to the people: “It’s very likely that he will push it to the people. That is to say, this is from the perspective of the people, not the official perspective. , this is possible.”
Diplomatic wolf “transformation”?
CCP diplomats are also part of the publicity. They are known as “Wolf Warriors” because they acted tough in accordance with the “Dare to Fight” directive from the highest level of the CCP. But something has changed now.
The most direct transfer was Fan Xianrong, the Chinese ambassador to Ukraine, who recently told Ukrainian officials that the CCP would support Ukraine economically and politically.
Earlier this week, China’s ambassador to Ukraine, Fan Xianrong, claimed during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Lviv that China is a “friendly country” to the Ukrainian people and the two countries are “strategic partners,” according to Ukrainian state media Ukrainian news agency. .
The Chinese ambassador also assured: “China will always be an important partner of Ukraine, both economically and politically.” “China will never attack Ukraine, and we will help in the economic direction.”
Chinese media did not report the remarks in full. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian declared at a regular press conference on the 17th that China supports the remarks made by the ambassador.
However, Zhao Lijian refused to say whether Beijing’s support for the CCP ambassador’s remarks means that China will not provide Russia with weapons or other assistance. He only responded to the foreign reporter who asked the question: “This is your own explanation.”
In addition, Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, published a signed article in the American “Washington Post” on the 15th, expounding the Chinese Communist Party’s “position on the Ukraine issue”. In his article, he tried to distance himself from the relationship between the CCP and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States told China many times that it hoped to use its influence to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine. “. Qin Gang also said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not benefit China at all. It is impossible for China not to dissuade it knowingly.
Qin Gang also denied that Russia sought military assistance from China.
As for Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, he publicly stated at a press conference on March 7 that the Sino-Russian friendship was “rock solid” and refused to call Russia’s military action against Ukraine an invasion. However, Wang Yi has claimed on the 14th that China is “objective and fair” on the Ukraine issue, “more does not want the sanctions to affect China”, and said that “in our own way, we will promote peace talks to ease the situation.”
On March 14, the United States and China held their first high-level dialogue since the Russian-Ukrainian war in Rome. White House National Security Advisor Sullivan talks with Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in charge of foreign affairs in China.
Chinese state media reported that when Yang Jiechi talked about the situation in Ukraine at the meeting, he claimed that China was committed to promoting peace and talks.
Expert: Beijing sees the wind
Su Ziyun, director of Taiwan’s National Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources, told The Epoch Times that from the remarks made by the CCP ambassador to Ukraine and Zhao Lijian’s claim to support his statement, to CCTV’s broadcast of the loss of the Russian army, to the “repudiation” of the ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, it can be seen that A big turn. He believes that from these three indicators, Beijing is showing the rudder.
He believes the reason is that Ukraine’s defense of the country has clearly won.
“This time Russia is a military adventure. Putin used to launch military aggression quickly, but this season in Ukraine is not suitable for large-scale military operations. The reason is that Ukraine’s terrain is originally black and fertile, relatively soft and easy to water. Now is the time of early spring, The ice and snow melted, and the Russian chariot troops and mechanized troops could not deploy in the wild, and could only advance along the road. Russia originally thought of a quick blitzkrieg. Internal facilities destroyed the morale of the Ukrainian people and quickly surrendered. Unfortunately, there is an endless stream of Ukrainian resistance. Beijing has always been a realist.
Taiwanese strategist Lin Yingyou told The Epoch Times that the CCP’s shift in tone is a diplomatic method. “The current development of the war situation is actually relatively unfavorable for Russia, so it (the CCP) will make such an adjustment.”
He also believes that the CCP authorities have no way to block all information. If the government’s attitude is to continue to fully support Russia, even if the information is blocked, the public must have more sources of information, which is not good for the image or internal control of the authorities. of. So the authorities have to make some adjustments.
Su Ziyun said that the CCP regime is actually a foreign regime, and it fundamentally deviates from Chinese culture and Chinese culture. “So no matter whether it’s officials, scholars or the media, it basically just looks at the top and speaks to do things. Now the wind has turned. The position of these warriors has suddenly softened. This highlights the internal contradictions of the CCP regime and shows that the CCP’s vulnerability.”
Betting on both sides, the CCP is still walking a tightrope
There are also Chinese diplomats who continue to be tough. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said recently that the Chinese Communist Party should join the rest of the world in condemning Russia. The spokesperson of the Chinese mission to the European Union responded on the 16th that the Chinese embassy in the Yugoslavia was mistakenly bombed, saying that NATO “is not qualified” to say what justice is.
In addition, the United Nations International Court of Justice in The Hague issued a judgment on March 16, requiring Russia to immediately stop the military operation in Ukraine launched on February 24. Eleven of the 13 judges were in favor, and the other two were from Russia and China.
Su Ziyun told The Epoch Times that while the CCP is neutral on the surface, it actually supports Russia in secret. Now it’s just a little adjustment, and it’s a double bet. The Chinese judges voted against at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, which illustrates all this.
“So I think Beijing is now covering the east and the west. It must maintain the so-called unlimited relationship with Russia, and maintain its relationship with Ukraine, a traditionally friendly country. It is also necessary to prevent the Western sanctions from setting the gates on fire, causing harm to pond fish and burning them to Beijing. itself. Therefore, it is now extremely difficult, and it is walking a tightrope, but the way it walks this tightrope makes the world more aware of the CCP. Even if we often say that the body is very honest, it may still provide some backdoors for Russia. Help.” Su Ziyun said.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Situation and the Future International Pattern
Su Ziyun believes that there will already be a new Sino-Russian axis in international relations in the future.
He believes that the point is not what Beijing does, because now the Ukrainian battlefield has entered the battle of the supply line, which is the final battle. Russia tried to surround some cities and cut off the food supply to these cities. The Ukrainian army went around to the back, attacked its logistics troops, cut off its communication lines and supply lines, and then turned around and attacked the leading troops. Under the evaluation, it is more favorable for the defending side.
Su Ziyun believes that after the final battle, there may be a compromise between Russia and Ukraine, and the war may be settled within two weeks. Ukraine will then enter a phase of reconstruction. Western democracies will begin to negotiate and discuss the future situation of the new Europe and the world, suppressing the rise of the alliance between the CCP and Russia.
Lin Yingyou believes that Russia and Ukraine are currently negotiating, but the two sides will continue to launch military pressure during the negotiation process.
He said: “There should be another battle between Russia and Ukraine. This battle will determine the future direction. Now it depends on whether the two sides can get more bargaining chips.”
Analysis: US-China relations focus on Indo-Pacific, not Russia-Ukraine war
U.S. President Joe Biden held a conference call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday about the Russia-Ukraine war. McAlvin, a former White House National Security Council adviser, said at a seminar titled “China’s Strategy towards Russia” hosted by the German Marshall Fund on Thursday that this is a moment when the future of US-China relations faces an important decision.
Lin Yingyou believes that the relationship between China and the United States will not change much because of the Russia-Ukraine war. What the United States needs more is the stability of the Indo-Pacific region.
Su Ziyun also believes that the recent actions of the United States, including the phone call between Blinken and Wang Yi and the meeting between Sullivan and Yang Jiechi, are a series of major diplomatic plans by the United States. But threats against China’s future in the Indo-Pacific will be a top priority for the United States.
Su Ziyun said that after the general trend of the war in Europe has been finalized, it will enter the stage of reconstruction, NATO will re-strengthen its armament and defense, and then the Western democracies will focus on the Indo-Pacific region.
“The CCP and Russia have said that they are strategic partners before the Winter Olympics. Now the CCP is avoiding the fire of sanctions against it. In addition to exposing the CCP’s plan, the United States will continue to make other diplomatic and technological preparations.” Su Ziyun Say.
Responsible editor: Gao Jing#