Home » Analysis: Who will benefit from the setbacks in Afghanistan? | United States | Taliban | Taiwan

Analysis: Who will benefit from the setbacks in Afghanistan? | United States | Taliban | Taiwan

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[Epoch Times, August 17, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Wu Minzhou reported in Taipei, Taiwan) The extreme radical organization Taliban recently invaded the Afghan capital Kabul and regained power in Afghanistan, shocking the international community. Regarding the CCP’s official media’s insinuations about the United States and propagating that Taiwan would also be abandoned, current affairs commentator Wen Zhao said that the actual situation may be just the opposite. In the past, Afghanistan was hailed as an imperial cemetery. Benefit from the changes.

After the change of the Afghan regime, there was a wave of fleeing. Recently, a number of films have flowed out, showing people climbing on a transport plane risking their lives, and some people climbing on the plane and falling off after takeoff. A U.S. transport aircraft C-17, numbered RCH 871, with a maximum carrying capacity of 150 heavily armed soldiers, squeezed in about 640 Afghans and arrived safely at its destination.

Regarding the scene of a large number of people fleeing Afghanistan, the Chinese Communist Party’s official media CCTV selected the American movie “A Dog’s Way Home” in its movie program on the 16th. The Chinese Communist Party’s official media “Global Times” also issued an English report, not only extracting and translating netizens’ mocking comments. , Even reposted on Twitter, saying that Chinese netizens believed that CCTV’s broadcast of the movie at this time was “no coincidence” and determined that the program arrangement was an insinuation to the withdrawal of American personnel from Afghanistan.

In this regard, current affairs commentator Wen Zhao said that Little Pink ridiculed the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as a failure of U.S. imperialism and propagated that Taiwan would also be abandoned, but the actual situation may be exactly the opposite. Taiwan, India, and other Indo-Pacific countries, it may be. Will benefit from the changes in the situation in Afghanistan, and may see changes in the situation in the next few weeks.

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He said that when the U.S. troops sent troops to Afghanistan, it was because the Taliban sheltered Al-Qaida leader Bin Laden. After Bin Laden was killed in 2011, the original mission of the United States has actually been completed, and the remaining 10 years are for Afghanistan. Establishing a stable democratic government and giving it the ability to protect itself consumes a lot of national power and resources. In the end, this mission failed.

He said that in the past 10 years, the United States has curbed the development of extremist forces in Afghanistan. As a result, neighboring countries have benefited from expanding infrastructure. Among the beneficiaries are Russia and the CCP. Now that the U.S. forces withdraw quickly, the Afghan government has collapsed. Although it was a big blow to the Biden administration, it did no real harm to the United States, because the Taliban were unable and unwilling to launch attacks on the United States.

Wen Zhao said that after the Taliban regain power, Central Asia is bound to enter an eventful period. The Taliban may portray themselves as a great anti-American victory and inspire other radical forces. Pakistan will bear the brunt, and Pakistani militants may also want to overthrow the current government. , The establishment of the Taliban regime.

In addition, Iran and Afghanistan may also break out of conflict. Wen Zhao said that Iran is a hard-line Shiite Muslim regime, and the Taliban is a hard-line Sunni. The two are historical enemies. When the Persian Empire (the empire centered on the Iranian plateau) emerged, the first thing to do was to conquer Afghanistan, so After the Taliban control Afghanistan, they will certainly infiltrate and attack Iran.

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He said that Central Asia and West Asia are in turmoil, and the CCP’s risk of promoting the “Belt and Road” is bound to increase. Therefore, although the CCP’s official announcements and social media are full of gloat for the United States, the CCP actually knows that it will bear the heavy burden in the future. .

He further stated that the Taliban is composed of many tribes who practice fundamentalism, including tribal elders, Islamic priests, and military commanders, all of whom have a great influence on fighters. The CCP’s One Belt, One Road is exposed in such high-risk areas. In which tribe the infrastructure is built, other tribes will rebound due to the imbalance of interests. This is why the CCP’s hydropower project in Pakistan, the transport vehicle was attacked by the Pakistani Taliban. reason.

He said that the CCP is currently the only country that the Taliban can give foreign aid. The Taliban will inevitably ask for assistance from the CCP on the Xinjiang issue. It will infiltrate Xinjiang, posing a threat to the stability of the CCP’s governance.

In addition, the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan will also bring about subtle changes in Sino-Russian relations. Wen Zhao said that if there is a turmoil in Central Asia, the CCP must consider whether to intervene with military power in order to protect its investment. However, the expansion of military power will directly threaten Russia. On the contrary, it will turn the relationship between the two sides into tension, and even make the relationship between the two parties tense. The two countries collided head-on.

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Editor in charge: Lumeiqi#

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