Xinhua|
Xinhua News Agency reporter Kang Yi Zhu Sheng Huang Yan
Russia’s Nord Stream-1 pipeline, which supplies natural gas to Europe, ended its 10-day routine annual maintenance on the 21st and resumed gas supply that morning, but the gas supply was only about 40% of its full capacity.
Analysts pointed out that the resumption of gas supply has temporarily eased Europe’s worries about its increasing natural gas shortage, but the energy crisis and its spillover effects caused by Europe’s follow-up of US sanctions against Russia are far from subsided, and relevant countermeasures are also facing difficulties.
Energy alert not cleared
A spokesman for the Beixi Natural Gas Pipeline Company said on the 21st that the “Beixi-1” pipeline has resumed gas supply, but it will take some time to achieve full-load operation. The previous level is the same, which is about 40% of the full capacity.
Klaus Müller, head of Germany’s energy regulator, the Federal Network Agency, wrote on social media that, given the 60 percent reduction in gas supply and political instability, “there is currently no reason to completely lift the alarm.”
The “Beixi-1” pipeline was completed in 2011. It starts from Vyborg, Russia in the east, passes through the seabed of the Baltic Sea to Lubmin, Germany, and then transmits it to various parts of Germany and other European countries through two connecting pipelines in Germany. to the main gas pipelines in Europe. Gazprom (Gazprom) is the largest shareholder of Nord Stream Gas Pipeline Company.
Starting from the 11th of this month, “Beixi-1” will suspend gas transmission and carry out annual routine maintenance. In mid-June, Gazprom reduced the supply of natural gas to Germany via the “Beixi-1” pipeline by nearly 60% on the grounds that Germany’s Siemens did not return the turbines sent by Gazprom for repair in time. Siemens said the turbines were sent to Canada for repairs but could not be returned due to Canada’s sanctions on Russia. It is reported that the turbine is expected to arrive in Russia on the 24th.
Analysts pointed out that since the “North Stream-1” is still far from reaching full capacity after the gas supply is restored, and this summer’s hot weather has pushed up Europe’s energy demand, European countries such as Germany, which are highly dependent on Russia’s gas supply, need to work hard to find enough gas. It is not ruled out that these countries may implement energy rationing at that time.
Europe-Russia Energy Game
For a long time, Europe has been highly dependent on Russia’s natural gas, oil and other energy supplies. In recent years, due to the tense relations between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has gradually increased the gas pipelines to Europe that bypass Ukraine. However, affected by Western sanctions against Russia and Russian countermeasures, the relevant gas pipelines are not smooth.
For example, the “Beixi-2” natural gas pipeline that Russia and Germany once pushed for will be completed in 2021. In February this year, affected by the changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Germany announced to suspend the certification process of the “Beixi-2” natural gas pipeline project. In addition, the “Yamal-Europe” natural gas pipeline that enters Germany via Belarus and Poland was originally an important channel for Russian natural gas to be exported to Europe. At the end of May, Poland rejected Russia’s “ruble settlement order” to counter Western sanctions and announced that it would stop receiving Russian natural gas.
German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Robert Habeck told the media that Germany cannot rely on Russia for gas supply and needs to further reduce natural gas consumption and replenish natural gas inventories. He accused Russia of “coercing Europe and Germany” with energy supplies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the media a few days ago that Gazprom has been and is fulfilling its energy supply obligations and will continue to do so in the future. There is no reason for European countries to try to blame Russia for the crisis caused by their own energy policy mistakes. The current energy crisis in Europe is not due to Russia’s supply cuts, but due to Western sanctions against Russia.
Hou Zhengmeng, a professor at Germany’s Clausthal University of Technology and the Energy Research Center of Lower Saxony, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that European countries used energy as a weapon to sanction Russia. May be frozen.
Hard to find an effective alternative
In response to the shortage of natural gas, the EU plans to “save gas” on the one hand, and “seek gas” everywhere on the other hand.
The European Commission published a proposal on the 20th, proposing that from August 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, member states take voluntary measures to reduce natural gas use by more than 15% compared with the average level of the same period in the previous five years. If there is a serious shortage of natural gas supply by then, the EU can take coercive measures to achieve this goal. The proposal was opposed by Spain, Portugal and other countries. EU energy ministers are due to meet next week to discuss the proposal.
Russia’s “Independence” published an article commenting that if Europe wants to “abandon” Russian natural gas, a 15% reduction in natural gas consumption is far from enough. According to BP statistics, Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe in 2021 will account for 32% of Europe’s total natural gas demand.
On the other hand, recently, senior officials from many European countries have frequently traveled to the Middle East, Africa and other regions to seek alternative sources of energy supply. However, some analysts say that it is unrealistic for Europe to get rid of its energy dependence on Russia in the short term. It is difficult for other countries to immediately meet the energy needs of the European market. Even large LNG exporters cannot adjust their export markets in a short period of time. At the same time, there are problems of long process and high cost in finding alternatives.
Germany, Austria, Greece, the Netherlands and other countries have recently announced to reopen coal power plants or take measures to support coal power. But analysts pointed out that these measures will disrupt the new energy development plans of European countries, at the expense of environmental protection, will have a negative impact on the EU’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
Aleksey Grivach, deputy director of the Russian National Energy Security Fund, said that in the past few months, alternative sources of energy supply in Europe have exerted their greatest potential, and if the capacity of the Nord Stream-1 natural gas pipeline is not restored , Europe will not be able to solve the problem of gas supply substitution.
Some analysts believe that, affected by the energy crisis, the European economy, which is deeply mired in high inflation, is shifting from low-speed driving to the “braking” stage, further increasing the risk of recession. (Participating reporter: Huang He)
(Editor in charge: Wang Jupeng)