[Epoch Times October 23, 2021](Interviews and reports by Epoch Times reporters Luo Ya and Cheng Jing) On Thursday (21st), US President Biden once again pledged to defend Taiwan, attracting the attention of all parties, and the US policy towards Taiwan has become ambiguous Towards clarity? The CCP immediately rebounded. Biden has already decided to attend two world summits next week, followed by visits. Experts believe that Biden has tried his best to promote the troika (cooperation, competition, and confrontation) with regard to China’s policies, and the meeting or confirmation of some policies will cause changes in the US-China situation.
Biden re-commits to Taiwan experts: the visit will determine the policy
On Thursday (21st) Biden twice pledged to “help defense” Taiwan. When answering a question from CNN host Cooper at a Baltimore City Hall meeting, “If Taiwan is attacked by China, will the United States help defend Taiwan?” Biden said, “The United States has a commitment to help defend Taiwan.”
Another time before the host asked a question, when Biden asked the audience “whether the United States will commit to defending Taiwan”, he answered: “yes and yes”.
Taiwan’s legislator Wang Dingyu told the media that this is the U.S. policy towards Taiwan moving from “strategic vagueness” to “strategic clarity”, that is, the U.S. maintains “strategic vagueness” about the politics of this region, but has moved toward “strategic clarity” for Taiwan’s security—— The CCP violated Taiwan by force, and the United States will help defend Taiwan.
However, the White House subsequently stated that the US policy on Taiwan has not changed. According to the Taiwan Relations Act, “we will defend our commitments, we will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, and we will continue to oppose unilateral changes to the status quo.” Whether or not Biden was wrong. ? The White House declined to comment further.
This is already Biden’s second commitment to Taiwan. In August of this year, Biden said that if Taiwan is attacked, the United States will defend the island. Subsequently, Biden administration officials said that the US policy towards Taiwan has not changed.
The CCP also rebounded immediately. The spokesperson of the CCP Foreign Ministry Wang Wenbin expressed today (22nd) that he hoped that the United States would “be cautious in words and deeds.”
Regarding this, Su Ziyun, chief executive of Tamkang University’s Integrated Strategy Center, told The Epoch Times that Biden once again said it personally, and he said it more clearly than last time, that is to say, the United States has a commitment to Taiwan’s defense, “So I think the trend is now. Obviously, the worship meeting (at the end of the year) is only the final confirmation step.”
Regarding the determination of this final route, Su Ziyun said, “a bit like the Alaska talks in March this year.” At the time during the US-China talks, high-ranking Chinese diplomats scolded the US. “After that, the United States launched a series of diplomatic offensives and included his issues at various summits.”
Therefore, Su Xiaoyun believes that “it’s just the last resort that the Biden administration usually adopts in diplomatic operations, that is, the last online meeting with the top CCP leader to determine Beijing’s possible attitude, which will determine the U.S. final The power to contain the CCP.”
The U.S. Promote Xixi Association?Xi Jinping will not attend the World Summit
Next week, Biden has decided to attend two international summits: the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Rome, Italy, and the United Nations Climate Conference in Glasgow, England. But Xi Jinping did not attend in person, and Xi has not left China since the outbreak of the Wuhan epidemic.
Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying in September that Chinese diplomats have notified G20 officials that Xi Jinping does not intend to attend the summit in Italy; and according to the Times, British Prime Minister Johnson has been informed that Xi Jinping will not attend the COP26 (Global Climate Summit). ).
Su Ziyun said, “Obviously, the first is domestic politics.” In November, the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China appeared. “Prior to this, Xi may have to keep the courtyard behind closed doors to avoid internal factions or hostile forces taking advantage of it. In his absence, he launched a political blow.”
Second, Su Ziyun believes that if he attends the climate summit or the G20. Xi Jinping’s diplomatic bargaining chips in the past are rapidly dwindling. In particular, Beijing also uses coal and electricity, and China is a big energy-consuming country. “So in this case, it is impossible to get a discount on international political bargaining chips like in the past.”
Su Ziyun said, third, in order to avoid facing more embarrassing situations, Xi Jinping said, “Beijing has already cooperated with the WHO in tracing the source of the death-bite virus, and some of the CCP’s spokespersons in the WHO have also echoed it, saying that China is not the main source of the virus. .”
Regarding the issue of the source of the epidemic, there have been calls from the international community. Recently, the WHO has once again recruited scientists to form an expert group, and various countries are focusing on the source of the epidemic.
Su Ziyun believes that the establishment of a new investigation organization by the United Nations is to some extent a diplomatic victory for Biden. Earlier, Trump took a stance of indifference towards some UN organizations and withdrew from the UN Human Rights Commission and some UN organizations, believing that the UN has been controlled by the CCP, and intends to establish a new organization dominated by democracies.
And “Biden started the traditional organizational route, which is to restore the existing international organizations. Then the establishment of this virus traceability team by the WHO can be said to be a diplomatic victory for Biden. Xi Jinping’s non-attendance is a combination of these reasons. “
How will the visit be conducted?Experts analyze Biden’s policy on China Three
A few days ago, Reuters quoted sources who pointed out that the Biden team currently does not have high expectations for the specific results that the meeting may bring, and believes that the meeting itself is a major achievement. Earlier, senior officials from the United States and China revealed after the meeting in Switzerland that an online meeting will be held before the end of the year.
Susan Thornton, a former senior official on Asian affairs at the US State Department and now at the Brookings Institution, said that this meeting may set the bottom line for the relationship between the two countries that is still in a “declining downward spiral.” (Yes) There is no real result, but it can keep things from getting worse.”
U.S. officials believe that direct contact with Xi Jinping is the best countermeasure to prevent Sino-U.S. relations from going into conflict. Su Ziyun said, “I observe this.” Judging from Xi Jinping’s absence from the G20 and climate summit, “the possibility of online meetings The highest sex.”
However, he believes, “In case they actually meet, then Xi Jinping may come out by lightning. This is a possible variable. I will go back immediately after the meeting.”
Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Blincoln explained the Biden administration’s China policy, that is, “there are three ways to deal with issues involving China: confrontation, competition, and cooperation.” Biden also said that the United States does not need to conflict with China, but that it will engage in “extremely fierce competition.”
As for cooperation, Feng Chongyi, an associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, believes that “climate issues are a benchmark agenda for the Biden administration.” He sent Kerry to China to cooperate, “and counter-terrorism, nuclear weapons control, and dealing with North Korea.”
As for confrontation, Feng Chongyi believes that “that is to confront human rights, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and the Taiwan Strait.”
Furthermore, the strategic competition and strategic confrontation between the two countries is a big pattern. Feng Chongyi believes that under this big pattern, what exactly does the United States do? There are three possibilities.
Feng Chongyi said that the first is the American hawks or the Trump team. “It is head-on, the longer the delay, the longer the night will be dreams. If the CCP is chaotic, then we will fight with the CCP even if it doesn’t hesitate to fight. This is an idea. “
The second is the corresponding. Feng Chongyi said, “If you go to war, the loss will be too great and you can’t afford to lose. Therefore, we will make concessions to meet some of the requirements of the CCP and return to the state before Trump.”
There is also a third type, Feng Chongyi said. In the long run, it may still be decoupling, but it must be done slowly and minimize losses. , The resistance of the resistance, minimize the loss.”
He said, “The United States is not ready to fight the CCP. There is no need to stimulate it. It is doing everything possible to avoid frontal conflict.” But “I want Xi Jinping to accept his plan.”
Editor in charge: Ye Ziming
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