Original title: Brazilian Congress investigates and proposes to prosecute Bolsonaro. Is there a “play” in the election of former President Lula?
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been under pressure recently.
There have been several recent outbreaks of protests calling for Bolsonaro’s impeachment in Brazil. Social platforms such as Facebook have removed Bolsonaro’s video saying that the new crown vaccine is related to AIDS. The domestic inflation rate remains high… On October 26, local time, a committee of the Brazilian Congress Senate voted to pass a report after half a year of investigation, suggesting that the prosecutors institute criminal charges against Bolsonaro for his response to the new crown epidemic.
Brazil currently has more than 21 million confirmed cases of new crown, ranking third in the world; cumulative deaths exceed 600,000, ranking second in the world. Although Bolsonaro has been criticized for his response to the epidemic, he still has a solid support camp. With one year away from the next presidential election, how will this investigation affect Bolsonaro’s political career and the future political situation in Brazil?
On October 22, local time, Brazilian President Bolsonaro attended a press conference in Brasilia, the capital of Brazil.People’s Visual Map
6 months investigation, 9 counts
According to the Associated Press and Brazil’s “São Paulo Page”, the Brazilian Congress Senate’s investigation committee on the government’s response to the epidemic voted 7 to 4 in favor of the proposal to prosecute Bolsonaro. Calls on the prosecution to indict Bolsonaro for a total of 9 counts, including “inciting crime,” “misuse of public funds,” and “crimes against humanity.”
The chairman of the investigation committee, Senator Omar Aziz, said that on the 27th, the proposal to accuse Bolsonaro will be handed over to the Brazilian Attorney General Augusto Arras. But Arras was appointed by Bolsonaro, and it is generally believed that Arras will “protect” Bolsonaro.
In addition to Bolsonaro, the committee recommended two companies and more than 70 other people, including several Brazilian federal government officials, and Bolsonaro’s three sons who are also in politics. According to Reuters, Bolsonaro’s press office has not yet responded to the matter, but Bolsonaro himself had previously called the Senate investigation a “joke.”
On October 26, local time, Senator Carlos of the Brazilian Congress attended a meeting of the Investigative Committee in Brasilia.People’s Visual Map
In April of this year, the Brazilian Senate formally established an investigation committee. When the investigation was launched, the committee issued 18 investigation topics, including the delay in purchasing the new crown vaccine, the rejection of the vaccine offer provided by Pfizer in August last year, the production and recommendation of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine without scientific evidence, and earlier this year At that time, the new crown patient in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state, died of suffocation due to oxygen shortage.
The committee conducted a 6-month investigation, during which more than 50 hearings were held. On October 20, one of the committee members, Senator Renan Calleros from the opposition party Brazil Democracy Movement, submitted a report of more than 1,000 pages, proposing to prosecute Bolsonaro. The report stated that Bolsonaro insisted on promoting the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat the new crown, which may be the “government’s only response to the epidemic.” The report also criticized Bolsonaro for “cooperating in the spread of the new crown on Brazilian territory” and “it is the federal government’s The main responsibility for the mistakes made during the epidemic”.
The report originally accused Bolsonaro of committing murder and genocide against the indigenous people of Brazil, but it was deleted before it was formally submitted because some committee members opposed these allegations, and other members believed that overstatement of the allegations would weaken the report’s validity. Reliability.
The seven senators on the investigation committee came from the opposition camp. They agreed with most of the report and finalized the final revision of the report on October 25. The report was formally adopted on the 26th.
Will Bolsonaro be impeached?
How will the half-year-long investigative hearing and the severely worded final report affect Bolsonaro’s political career?
The Associated Press pointed out that the committee’s report includes two recommendations for “responsible crime”, which may provide conditions for Bolsonaro’s impeachment. But the impeachment of Bolsonaro is not easy: Atul Lira, the speaker of the Brazilian Congress, is also an ally of Bolsonaro. The House of Representatives has received more than 120 impeachment requests for Bolsonaro, but Lira has not dealt with them.
In addition to impeachment, this investigative report also proposes that Bolsonaro can be filed for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands, but it did not specify the details.
According to the US “Washington Post” report, if the Brazilian Federal Attorney General charges Bolsonaro, the case will be transferred to the House of Representatives. If Bolsonaro is to be suspended and put on trial, at least two-thirds of the House of Representatives must vote in favor.
But Bolsonaro is unlikely to be prosecuted. Tan Daoming, an associate researcher at the Political Research Office of the Institute of Latin American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed on The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that on the one hand, the Attorney General Arras belongs to the Bolsonaro camp, and on the other hand, the Attorney General may not be able to Adopt the Senate investigation.
“The Senate investigation is not a judicial investigation, but a political investigation. The conclusions of the investigation are non-binding and suggestive.” Tan Daoming pointed out that the investigation has limited influence on Bolsonaro, but it has a limited impact on the opposition party. It is of political significance and may have a negative impact on Bolsonaro’s image and his election next year.
Election next year: Bolsonaro or Lula?
With one year away from the 2022 Brazil election, the Senate investigation report will obviously disturb the election battle.
During the new crown epidemic, Bolsonaro played down the severity of the epidemic many times, opposed the epidemic prevention blockade, and promoted unproven hydroxychloroquine to treat the new crown, which attracted many criticisms in Brazil and abroad. However, many analyses point out that the Senate investigation is not without political goals.
Tan Daoming believes that the investigation of Bolsonaro’s government is essentially “a manifestation of the intensified political struggle in Brazil” and “another political struggle between the ruling party and the opposition parties around the epidemic”, and it may contain targets for next year’s election campaign. the goal of.
On October 8, local time, former Brazilian President Lula attended a press conference in Brasilia.People’s Visual Map
In March of this year, the Brazilian Federal Supreme Court announced the cancellation of a 2018 judgment of the Federal Court, restoring the political rights of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the left-wing Labor Party. Lula said this month that he would decide whether to participate in the general election early next year. In the current polls, Lula’s approval rate is also higher than Bolsonaro.
As for whether Lula can return to the presidency, Tan Daoming believes that Lula’s future as a presidential candidate is not optimistic. He told The Paper that, on the one hand, the judicial trial against Lula is still under investigation. Previously, the previous judgment was revoked based on procedural reasons and sent back for retrial; on the other hand, if the Labor Party does not introduce new strong candidates, But playing Lula’s “old sign”, the people will get bored.
The political forces of all factions in Brazil have begun to gather their power for next year’s general election. At the beginning of October this year, Brazil’s two right-wing parties, the Social Liberal Party and the Democratic Party, announced the merger. The new party will occupy 82 seats in Brazil’s 513-seat House of Representatives, surpassing the Labor Party and becoming the largest party in the House of Representatives. The party also plans to launch its own presidential candidate. . Bolsonaro joined the Social Liberal Party before the 2018 presidential campaign, but withdrew in 2019 and currently does not belong to any party.
Tan Daoming believes that there are no other prominent politicians in Brazil now. Lula actually represents the left wing and is also a banner that opposes Bolsonaro. “But once both the center-left and the center-right propose candidates, the public opinion supporting Lula will split.” Tan Daoming pointed out that at the same time, Bolsonaro’s public opinion will not split, and the extreme right will support him.
Will Bolsonaro win the election again? Tan Daoming told The Paper that under the impact of the major epidemic, the current ruling governments in Latin American countries have almost stepped down in subsequent elections regardless of their positions. Brazil’s response to the epidemic has been particularly poor, and Bolsonaro is unlikely to win. Big. “But it may not be Lula winning, there may be a dark horse.”
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