Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, October 5th (International Observation) Can the situation on the peninsula turn around when the DPRK and the ROK “reconnect”
Xinhua News Agency reporter
The North Korean Central News Agency issued a communique on the 4th that North Korea has decided to restart all communication lines between North Korea and South Korea from 9 am that day. Analysts believe that this is an important step for the improvement of relations between the DPRK and the ROK. It will have a positive impact on the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but there is still greater uncertainty about whether the situation on the Peninsula will continue to ease.
The hard-won “reconnection”
This is the resumption of contact between the DPRK and South Korea after nearly two months of interruption, and it also means that the process of easing the relationship between the two sides has restarted.
The previous relationship between North Korea and South Korea can be described as ups and downs. After experiencing the highlights of the three-time meeting between the leaders of the DPRK and the ROK in 2018, as the North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, Vietnam ended in vain in February 2019, not only did the relationship between the DPRK and the U.S. gradually become colder, but the relationship between the DPRK and the ROK also declined. . In June 2020, North Korea disseminated anti-DPRK leaflets in the direction of North Korea to protest against South Korea’s connivance of “North Korean defectors”. Not only did it cut off all communication lines between North Korea and South Korea, it also blew up the inter-Korean liaison office building in North Korea’s Kaesong Industrial Park. , Causing the relationship between the two countries to drop to a freezing point.
After the continuous efforts of both sides, especially the leaders of the two countries have exchanged letters and communication on many occasions, the DPRK and South Korea finally resumed communication between the two countries on July 27 this year. However, with the launch of a joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States on August 10, North Korea once again interrupted its ties with South Korea.
The “re-connection” is also inseparable from the joint efforts of both parties. In his speech at the UN General Assembly on September 21, South Korean President Moon Jae-in called for the resumption of the dialogue between South Korea and North Korea and the United States and North Korea as soon as possible, expressing the hope that all parties concerned would jointly issue a declaration on the end of the Korean War. The Deputy Minister of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, Kim Yu-jung, subsequently made consecutive speeches on September 24 and 25, expressing his willingness to communicate with South Korea on the premise of mutual respect and mentioning the possibility of a summit meeting between the DPRK and South Korea. On September 29, North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un stated in a report to the Supreme People’s Assembly of North Korea that North Korea is willing to restart communication lines between North Korea and South Korea from the beginning of October.
Both sides have mutual needs
Although the “re-connection” is an initiative of the DPRK, analysts pointed out that, as the above-mentioned process has shown, both the DPRK and the ROK actually have the willingness to improve relations.
From the perspective of North Korea, under the influence of multiple factors such as international sanctions, border blockade caused by the new crown epidemic, and two consecutive years of natural disasters, North Korea is facing difficulties in economic development and food production. The desire to lift international sanctions as soon as possible is particularly urgent. North Korea hopes that South Korea can play an active role in humanitarian assistance, epidemic prevention and control, and lifting of international sanctions against North Korea.
From the perspective of South Korea, Moon Jae-in’s term as president will end in May next year, with little time left, but his relationship with North Korea, which he values most and manages most, has been deadlocked for a long time. Therefore, Moon Jae-in actively released signals to improve relations with the DPRK in order to obtain a response from the DPRK, so as to achieve results in the final period of his term and leave a political legacy. His proposal to issue a declaration on the end of the war at the UN General Assembly is a manifestation of this mentality.
In terms of timing, the two military exercises between South Korea and the United States each spring and summer have ended, and the direct obstacles to North Korea’s improvement in relations with South Korea have been eliminated. At the same time, it is difficult to predict who will become the new president of South Korea next year and how the new president will treat North Korea. The remaining term of Moon Jae-in is also a window of opportunity for North Korea. Under this circumstance, North Korea decided to use this window to break the deadlock and lay the foundation for the further improvement of the relationship between North Korea and South Korea.
Uncertainty still exists
The South Korean side responded positively to the DPRK’s decision to “return the alliance.” The South Korean Ministry of Unification stated on the 4th that the South Korean government believes that connecting the North-South communication line has laid a foundation for stabilizing the situation on the Korean Peninsula and restoring North-South relations. The South Korean side looks forward to resuming dialogue as soon as possible through the stable operation of the communication line between the North and the South, and starting substantive discussions including restoring North-South relations and promoting peace on the peninsula and making progress.
Analysts believe that the restoration of the communication line between North Korea and South Korea may bring benefits to the situation on the peninsula in the following aspects.
First, since September, North Korea has tested different types of missiles many times, while South Korea has tested independently developed submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The peninsula is showing tension. The reunification of North Korea and South Korea will help ease this tension.
Secondly, with the return of normal relations between the two sides, humanitarian assistance to North Korea, the establishment of a video conference system between the two countries, and the holding of video meetings for separated families are expected to become the next cooperation projects for specific discussions between the two sides.
Third, with the warming of relations between North Korea and South Korea, the possibility that South Korea will promote the resumption of talks between North Korea and the United States has also increased.
However, analysts also pointed out that there is still greater uncertainty about whether the situation on the peninsula will continue to ease. The current differences between North Korea and the United States are still serious. Although the United States has called for dialogue between the North and the United States, it has not made it clear that it will change its current policy toward North Korea. The North Korean side insists that if the United States does not change its hostile policy towards North Korea, it will be impossible to resume normal contacts between the two countries. South Korea’s North Korea policy is subject to the United States. If the North Korean-US relationship fails to achieve a breakthrough for a long time, the North-South Korean relationship is in danger of worsening again. (Participating reporters: Jiang Yaping, Hong Kerun, Lu Rui, Du Baiyu)
.