(Original title: The chicken cycle reversal is imminent? A list of listed companies benefiting from the industry chain of the worst bird flu outbreak in Europe and the United States)
News from the Financial Associated Press on December 3 (Editor Wang Shulei)Recently, Europe and the United States are suffering fromWorst bird flu crisis in history.According to data released by the US Department of Agriculture on the 24th, bird flu this year has caused50.54 million poultry were culled, exceeding the highest record in history.The European Food Safety Authority recently stated that the highly pathogenic avian influenzaHas affected 37 countries in Europe, Has culled nearly 50 million poultry. Peru and Ecuador were also affected, with their governments declaring a state of health emergency.
At the same time, since the price of white-feathered broiler chickens climbed above the cost line in early July, it has fluctuated upwards all the way, and broke the 4 yuan/feather mark in October.A new high for the year. According to the data disclosed by Yisheng, the average sales price of white-feathered broiler chicks in October was 3.95 yuan/feather.+181.3% YoY, +12.2% MoM. On November 27, the quotation of Dachang chicks rose to 4.7 yuan/feather. According to the 46th week of data from the my country Poultry Industry Association, the price of parent-generation chicks continued to rise by 3.85% month-on-month to 44.62 yuan per set, and the price of commercial-generation chickens rose by 6.34% to 4.17 yuan per set.
People in the industry pointed out that the rise in chicken prices was due to the bird flu that caused the white-feather chicken industry toThe number of introduced species has shrunk sharply, Insufficient supply in the industry. The data shows that the industry has no overseas introductions from May to July, and the introduction resumes from August to September, but the amount is very small. From October to November, overseas introductions are also zero.
White-feathered chickens are scientific and technological products of targeted breeding in European and American countries. They must be cultivated generation by generation through “pure breed chickens-great-grandfather chickens-parent chickens-commercial chickens”. The progeny of its voluntary reproduction is unstable, and neither the parental chicken nor the grandparental chicken can be used for breeding. Each set of grandparent chickens can produce 45 sets of parent chickens, and each set of parent chickens can provide about 110 commercial chicks. The pure breed chickens and great-grandfather chickens have been in the hands of a few European and American companies for a long time. At present, the vast majority of Chinese white-feathered grandparent chickens rely on overseas introductions (mainly from New Zealand and the United States), and a small amount is domestic breeding.
Zheshang Securities pointed out that the current white-feathered chickenThe relationship between supply and demand is gradually reversedthe price of chicken products is expected to rise gradually from the downturn,The signs of the industrial cycle have emerged。
Source: Titanium Media
Huachuang Securities and Zheshang Securities believe that with the advent of winter, there is a risk of further spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza.Overseas introduction in December may continue to remain lowthe annual introduction of ancestors is expected to be less than 900,000 sets,Lower than the industry’s equilibrium demand of 1-1.1 million sets.Calculated according to the periodic conduction rhythm, it is estimated thatThere will be a shortage of chicks next year, the price will begin to climb rapidly, and then may enter the upward phase of a new cycle by the end of next year.While the current stock price is still low, the white-feathered broiler sectorIt is expected to become the sub-sector with the greatest opportunity in agriculture next。
At the same time, East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, the industry suffered losses for a long time.Ancestral production capacity shock to reduce 8%. In addition, due to factors such as diseases carried by the ancestral breeders and forced moulting, the breeders currently suffer from liver rupture, paralyzed legs and other diseases.Breeder quality problems cause breeding efficiency to drop by 20%-30% andLimit flock ability to force moult, The space for artificial adjustment of production capacity is narrowed. Under the influence of multiple factors, the production capacity of ancestors has shrunk or intensified,The inflection point of the drive cycle accelerates。
The white feather chicken industry chain consists of great-grandfather broiler breeders, grandparent broiler breeders, parent broiler breeders, commercial broiler breeders and chicken products.
Sunner’s development is my country’sA leading enterprise in the white-feather broiler industry, has a closed-loop whole industrial chain.Company White Feather ChickenBreeding capacity is close to 600 million feathersEast Asia Qianhai Securities expects its market share to exceed 10% in 2022, inRanked No. 1 among self-supporting enterprises in the industrial chain. The company has bred the “Shengze 901” white-feathered broiler matching line, which is the first batch of white-feathered chicken varieties with independent intellectual property rights in my country. From January to October 2022, “Shengze 901” was introduced to the ancestors of white-feathered broiler chickens in my countryThe proportion has reached as high as 27%。
Shenang Securities believes in a research report on November 21 that if the bird flu epidemic is difficult to improve for a long time and the introduction of ancestral white-feathered chickens continues to be blocked, the development of SunnerThe market share of grandparent chicken will further increasebecoming one of the domestic white feather chicken farming enterprisesmost beneficial target。
Yisheng Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in parent-generation chicken fry and commercial-generation chicken fry.The company with the largest number of export white feather broiler chickens. The “Yisheng 909” independently cultivated by the company has passed the national new variety certification and has begun to be sold on the market. On November 26, the price of white-feathered chicks from natural breeding poultry was 4.7 yuan/feather, while the quotation from Yisheng in the middle and late March of this year was only 1.2 yuan/feather.The increase is close to 300%.Shengang Securities pointed out that it isThe direct beneficiary target of rising chicken fry prices。
Minhe Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in commercial chicken fry, which is at the front end of the industrial chain.As of 2022H1, the company’s commercial generation chicksProduction capacity exceeds 300 million feathers.The company’s reception organization recently said during a survey that the company’s fixed-increase project breeder farm has now started construction, and it is planned to be completed by the end of 2023, with a production capacity of80-100 million chicks.East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that the company’s business is expected to usher in the “reversal of the white chicken industry cycle + high price elasticity of commercial chick chicks”.Both volume and price increase.In addition, the company willExtend to the downstream of the industrial chainthe cooked food factory project has been officially put into production and operation, and the construction project through non-public fundraising will beNewly added meat production capacity totals 60,000 tons。
Xiantan and Chunxue Food are mainly engaged in the production and sales of chicken products, and are at the back end of the industrial chain.Zheshang Securities believes thatThe recovery on the consumer side is first transmitted to chicken and food processing companies, and the improvement in performance will be realized first. In October, the export volume of chicken products of Chunxue Foods increased by about 6% month-on-month and about 20% year-on-year.
After the Zhucheng project of Xiantan Co., Ltd. is completed and put into operation in 2024, the company will realize the full support of parent generation and commodity generation,The slaughtering volume of broilers will reach 250-270 million, the meat processing capacity will reach 600,000 tons, and the production capacity of prepared vegetables will reach 150,000 tons. In July 2022, the company signed the “Strategic Cooperation Agreement” with Qingdao Aucma Cold Chain Integration Co., Ltd. and Asaipu Economic and Trade Development Co., Ltd. to build a complete cold chain logistics and trade system for prefabricated vegetables.
Chunxue Foods is one of the few large-scale chicken food companies in China that is mainly engaged in conditioning products. As of the end of June 2022, Chunxue Foods has entered more than 60% of domestic retail department stores and online retail channels,More than 5,000 stores in supermarketscovering the whole countryMore than 70% of large and medium cities. East Asia Qianhai Securities believes that due to factors such as the new crown epidemic, my country’s prepared vegetable industry is currently at the starting point of rapid growth.companyC-end product market is expected to accelerate expansionto increase profitability.
However, some analysts pointed out that epidemics such as bird flu may have a relatively large negative impact on the consumer psychology of the general public, leading toshrinking market demand.Some people in the industry told reporters from the Financial Associated Press that it is expected thatThe introduction of foreign grandparent chickens will be normalized around March next yearAccording to the transmission of the breeding cycle, the supply of parent breeder chickens will increase in September next year, and the price of parent breeder chickens is expected to fall by then.