Home » China’s six interests are at stake in Afghanistan’s “changing sky”-FT中文网

China’s six interests are at stake in Afghanistan’s “changing sky”-FT中文网

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From August 6th to 15th, it only took ten days for the Afghan Taliban to capture the first provincial capital to seize the national power again. The “Kabul Moment” and the “Saigon Moment” have become the focus of global attention. The rapid pace of Afghanistan’s “changing sky” surprised almost everyone, and Atta did not expect to fight for less and destroy the dead, so easy.

In July 1994, Baradhar assisted Omar in the establishment of the Taliban in Kandahar City, and he has now become the No. 2 figure in Atta. On August 17, 2021, after 20 years in exile, he returned from Doha to Kandahar, where the Taliban originated. He was welcomed by his comrades in “heroic” manner. He has become one of the 12 committee members in charge of Afghanistan and a popular candidate for the future president. one.

China played a good move first. On July 28, China invited Baradar to visit China. When Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with him in Tianjin, he expressed China’s key position: 1. Persist in non-interference in Afghan’s internal affairs, Afghanistan belongs to the Afghan people; 2. Recognize that Atta is the most important part of Afghanistan. The military and political forces hope to establish a positive image and pursue an inclusive policy; 3. Emphasize that international terrorist organizations such as the “East-Iran Movement” directly threaten China’s national security and territorial integrity, and hope that Atta will thoroughly draw a line of boundaries and resolutely strike.

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Baladal responded one by one in his speech. 1. Affirm that China has always been a trustworthy and good friend of the Afghan people; 2. Atta is committed to establishing a political structure in Afghanistan that is inclusive and acceptable to all the Afghan people to protect human rights and the rights of women and children; 3. Atta will never allow anything The forces use the Afghan territory to do things that endanger China, and hope that China will play a greater role in the reconstruction and economic development of Afghanistan in the future.

At the time of Baradar’s visit to China, Atta had not yet taken control of the country’s political power, and the “five permanent members” of the Security Council were obviously the key targets of his “public relations” and “united front.” It remains to be seen and tested whether these responses and commitments are statements made in diplomatic situations, or policies implemented in earnest after taking power. The situation in Afghanistan has changed drastically, at least six of which have a bearing on China’s interests.

──Is there a large influx of refugees?Since May, more than 250,000 refugees have fled Afghanistan, and 90% have gone to neighboring Pakistan and Iran. The two countries are under the greatest pressure, which is consistent with the flow of Afghan refugees in 2020. Europe (especially Germany) has lingering fears about the refugee crisis in 2015 and is worried about further disaster. EU foreign ministers have held a special video conference on August 17 to assess the situation and try to prevent refugees from leaving abroad.

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As far as China is concerned, it has only 92.45 kilometers of land border with Afghanistan, and only a 400 kilometers long Wakhan Corridor is connected. The 300 kilometers in Afghanistan belong to no man’s land, with an average altitude of more than 4,000 meters and 9 months in a year. Fengshan. It is very easy for China to hold the exit of the corridor, and there is no need to worry about the influx of Afghan refugees from the land.

– Has Xinjiang been hit?Violent terrorist forces, ethnic separatist forces, and religious extremist forces seriously threaten the security and development of China and Xinjiang. China opposes all foreign organizations supporting the “three forces” and Xinjiang terrorists. This is completely different from the nature of the human rights dispute in Xinjiang, and there is no room for compromise.

On August 18, during a telephone conversation between Wang Yi and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu, Atta needed to be completely cut off from all terrorist forces with a clear attitude and to take measures to crack down on the “East-Iranian Movement.” This sentence is actually spoken to Turkey.

Members of terrorist organizations such as “Al Qaeda”, “Islamic State”, “Bata”, and “Eastern Iraqi Movement” have been closely integrated with some of Atta’s factions. You have me in you and you are in me. This is for Atta’s fight against terrorism. The daunting challenge. On the evening of August 26, the “Islamic State” launched a terrorist attack on Kabul International Airport, which has caused nearly 200 deaths, including 13 American soldiers, 28 Taliban members, and more than 150 injured.

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──Does investment promote a win-win situation?Whether the international community recognizes and accepts the new Atta regime and whether Atta is removed from the Security Council’s list of terrorist organizations and individuals requires time to weigh and test, and it needs to be compared with the Security Council’s “five permanent members”. If Atta is as radical as it was 20 years ago, then the new regime will not be recognized by the “Five Permanents” of the Security Council, and there is a high risk that Afghanistan will become a hotbed of terrorism.

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