- David Brown
- BBC News
China’s carbon emissions are the largest in the world and growing rapidly, far exceeding the rest of the world.
Experts unanimously agree that if China’s carbon emissions are not significantly reduced, then global efforts to combat climate change will not succeed.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to work hard to maintain a cap on carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
But he did not specify how China can achieve this ambitious goal.
Explosive growth
Although all countries have encountered difficulties in reducing carbon emissions, China faces the biggest challenge.
China’s per capita carbon emissions are about half of that of the United States, but its 1.4 billion population and explosive economic growth make China’s total carbon emissions rank first in the world.
In 2006, China became the country with the highest carbon dioxide emissions in the world. Now, more than a quarter of the total global greenhouse gas emissions are from China.
Coal power generation
Many experts say that China can reduce carbon emissions, but it needs to make fundamental changes.
For decades, China has been highly dependent on coal for power generation, and it has continued to increase.
Xi Jinping stated that China will “gradually reduce” coal use from 2026, but the relevant speech has been criticized by some governments and activists for not doing enough.
Researchers at Tsinghua University in Beijing stated that China needs to completely stop using coal for power generation by 2050 and replace it with nuclear and renewable energy.
However, instead of shutting down coal-fired power stations, China has continued to build coal-fired power stations in more than 60 locations across the country, some of which have more than one.
Philippe Ciais, a researcher at the Institute of Environment and Climate Science in Paris, France, said that the useful life of newly built power stations is usually between 30 and 40 years. If China wants to reduce carbon emissions, it will The power generation of the new power plant must be reduced first, and the old power plant must be shut down at the same time.
If the old power plants are not shut down, they can be retrofitted to reduce emissions, but the large-scale retrofit technology is not yet mature, and many new power plants must be scrapped shortly after use to reduce carbon emissions.
China stated that it has the right to develop its economy and get rid of poverty first, as Western countries did in the past, and then think of ways to reduce carbon emissions.
China has also invested in coal-fired power plants in other countries through the Belt and Road Initiative, but has now reduced new investment.
China Green Energy
Researchers at Tsinghua University stated that China needs to achieve 90% of its energy from nuclear and renewable energy by 2050.
China’s green energy technology manufacturing, such as the production technology of solar panels and large batteries, leads the world, and this leadership will help China achieve this goal.
At the earliest, China began to embrace green energy technologies in order to reduce air pollution in major cities.
But now, the Chinese government believes that green energy technology has huge economic potential, which can provide job opportunities and economic income for millions of Chinese people, and it can also reduce China’s dependence on foreign oil and natural gas.
Cao Yue, a researcher at the Overseas Development Institute in the UK, said, “China has led the global energy transition and we are now able to use cheaper and cheaper green energy technologies. One of the reasons is China.”
China also leads the world in solar power generation. Considering China’s huge population base, this may not be a big deal, but it illustrates the future trend of China.
China’s wind power is also developing rapidly. In 2020, China’s new wind power generation will be more than three times that of any other country.
China said that by 2030, it will increase the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation to 25%. Many observers believe that this goal will be achieved early.
electric car
China’s electric vehicle sales rate ranks seventh in the world, but considering the huge population base, the number of electric vehicles produced and sold in China far exceeds that of any other country. About one out of every 20 vehicles sold is an electric vehicle.
It is not easy to calculate how much carbon emissions can be reduced by electric vehicles, especially considering the carbon emissions produced during the production and charging of electric vehicles.
However, studies have shown that the carbon emissions of electric vehicles during their service life are usually lower than those of ordinary gasoline and diesel vehicles.
This is crucial to the reduction of overall carbon emissions, because the carbon emissions caused by transportation are about one-fourth of the carbon emissions from burning fuel, and land vehicles are the most important source of emissions.
Before 2025, the power storage capacity of batteries produced in China will be more than twice the combined power storage capacity of batteries produced in other countries.
Observers said that this will allow the storage and release of renewable energy to reach an unprecedented scale.
Land Greening in China
The net value of greenhouse gas emissions is zero, which does not mean that China no longer emits greenhouse gases.
A net value of zero means that China will reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible while absorbing the remaining carbon emissions through different means.
Increasing the area of land with vegetation can help absorb carbon emissions, because plants can absorb carbon dioxide.
In this regard, China also has encouraging good news. China is greening faster than any other country, most of which is attributed to tree planting projects to reduce soil loss and reduce pollution.
In addition, continuous planting due to the need to increase the number of crops harvested each year has also led to longer planting times on the land and accelerated greening.
Next step?
The success of the global fight against climate change depends on whether China can succeed.
Professor David Tyfield of the Lancaster Environment Centre said, “Unless China can achieve a low-carbon economy, we cannot solve climate change.”
China has many strong advantages, especially the ability to adhere to a long-term strategy and the ability to mobilize large-scale investment.
The Chinese authorities face such a difficult task, and how they develop in the future is of utmost importance.